Healthy Life Expectancy for 187 Countries, 1990–2010: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden Disease Study 2010

Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: .
The Lancet (Impact Factor: 45.22). 12/2013; 380(9859):2144-62. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61690-0
Source: PubMed


Healthy life expectancy (HALE) summarises mortality and non-fatal outcomes in a single measure of average population health. It has been used to compare health between countries, or to measure changes over time. These comparisons can inform policy questions that depend on how morbidity changes as mortality decreases. We characterise current HALE and changes over the past two decades in 187 countries.
Using inputs from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2010, we assessed HALE for 1990 and 2010. We calculated HALE with life table methods, incorporating estimates of average health over each age interval. Inputs from GBD 2010 included age-specific information for mortality rates and prevalence of 1160 sequelae, and disability weights associated with 220 distinct health states relating to these sequelae. We computed estimates of average overall health for each age group, adjusting for comorbidity with a Monte Carlo simulation method to capture how multiple morbidities can combine in an individual. We incorporated these estimates in the life table by the Sullivan method to produce HALE estimates for each population defined by sex, country, and year. We estimated the contributions of changes in child mortality, adult mortality, and disability to overall change in population health between 1990 and 2010.
In 2010, global male HALE at birth was 58·3 years (uncertainty interval 56·7-59·8) and global female HALE at birth was 61·8 years (60·1-63·4). HALE increased more slowly than did life expectancy over the past 20 years, with each 1-year increase in life expectancy at birth associated with a 0·8-year increase in HALE. Across countries in 2010, male HALE at birth ranged from 27·9 years (17·3-36·5) in Haiti, to 68·8 years (67·0-70·4) in Japan. Female HALE at birth ranged from 37·1 years (26·9-43·7) in Haiti, to 71·7 years (69·7-73·4) in Japan. Between 1990 and 2010, male HALE increased by 5 years or more in 42 countries compared with 37 countries for female HALE, while male HALE decreased in 21 countries and 11 for female HALE. Between countries and over time, life expectancy was strongly and positively related to number of years lost to disability. This relation was consistent between sexes, in cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, and when assessed at birth, or at age 50 years. Changes in disability had small effects on changes in HALE compared with changes in mortality.
HALE differs substantially between countries. As life expectancy has increased, the number of healthy years lost to disability has also increased in most countries, consistent with the expansion of morbidity hypothesis, which has implications for health planning and health-care expenditure. Compared with substantial progress in reduction of mortality over the past two decades, relatively little progress has been made in reduction of the overall effect of non-fatal disease and injury on population health. HALE is an attractive indicator for monitoring health post-2015.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

164 Reads
  • Source
    • "Chenetal./CancerLetters■■(2015)■■–■■ 1 2 3 4 versus79.2yearsinSweden,whileforwomenitreached82.8years inGermanyversus83.5yearsinSweden[19] "
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: We aimed at investigating the distribution and risk of all second discordant primary cancers (SDPCs) after a specific first primary cancer in Germany and Sweden to provide etiological understanding of SDPCs and insight into their incidence rates and recording practices. Among 1,537,004 survivors of first primary cancers in Germany and 588,103 in Sweden, overall 80,162 and 32,544 SDPCs were recorded, respectively. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of all SDPCs were elevated at levels between 1.1 and 2.1 after 23 (out of overall 29) cancers in Germany and at levels between 1.1 and 1.6 after 24 cancers in Sweden, and among them, elevated SIRs were found after 19 cancers in both populations. Decreased SIRs at levels ranging from 0.5 to 0.9 were found for some cancers with poor prognosis in Germany only. We found elevated risk after 19 out of 29 cancers in both countries, suggesting common etiology of SDPCs after most of first cancers and registration similarity. Decreased risks after some fatal cancers were found only in Germany, which may be attributed to reporting practices or missed death data in Germany.
    Cancer Letters 08/2015; DOI:10.1016/j.canlet.2015.08.014;PMID: · 5.62 Impact Factor
  • Source
    • "In addition to the burden in the young population , the demographic changes in life expectancy will lead to a significant increase of the population aged over 65 years old in Europe . This population is at high risk of suffering from neurologic age - related diseases ( Salomon et al. , 2012 "
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: In the last decade, important advances in the field of cognitive science, psychology, and neuroscience have largely contributed to improve our knowledge on brain functioning. More recently, a line of research has been developed that aims at using musical training and practice as alternative tools for boosting specific perceptual, motor, cognitive, and emotional skills both in healthy population and in neurologic patients. These findings are of great hope for a better treatment of language-based learning disorders or motor impairment in chronic non-communicative diseases. In the first part of this review, we highlight several studies showing that learning to play a musical instrument can induce substantial neuroplastic changes in cortical and subcortical regions of motor, auditory and speech processing networks in healthy population. In a second part, we provide an overview of the evidence showing that musical training can be an alternative, low-cost and effective method for the treatment of language-based learning impaired populations. We then report results of the few studies showing that training with musical instruments can have positive effects on motor, emotional, and cognitive deficits observed in patients with non-communicable diseases such as stroke or Parkinson Disease. Despite inherent differences between musical training in educational and rehabilitation contexts, these results favor the idea that the structural, multimodal, and emotional properties of musical training can play an important role in developing new, creative and cost-effective intervention programs for education and rehabilitation in the next future.
    Frontiers in Psychology 05/2015; 6(6):475. DOI:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00475 · 2.80 Impact Factor
  • Source
    • "YLLs are computed by multiplying the number of deaths attributable to a particular disease at each age by a standard life expectancy at that age. The standard life expectancy represents the normative goal for survival and for 2010 was computed based on the lowest recorded death rates in any age group in countries with a population greater than 5 million (Salomon et al. 2012). Cause-specific death estimates in GBD 2010 were produced from available cause of death data for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010. "
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Aims: Mortality-associated burden of disease estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 (GBD 2010) may erroneously lead to the interpretation that premature death in people with mental, neurological and substance use disorders (MNSDs) is inconsequential when evidence shows that people with MNSDs experience a significant reduction in life expectancy. We explore differences between cause-specific and excess mortality of MNSDs estimated by GBD 2010. Methods: GBD 2010 cause-specific death estimates were produced using the International Classification of Diseases death-coding system. Excess mortality (all-cause) was estimated using natural history models. Additional mortality attributed to MNSDs as underlying causes but not captured through GBD 2010 methodology is quantified in the comparative risk assessments. Results: In GBD 2010, MNSDs were estimated to be directly responsible for 840 000 deaths compared with more than 13 million excess deaths using natural history models. Conclusions: Numbers of excess deaths and attributable deaths clearly demonstrate the high degree of mortality associated with these disorders. There is substantial evidence pointing to potential causal pathways for this premature mortality with evidence-based interventions available to address this mortality. The life expectancy gap between persons with MNSDs and the general population is high and should be a focus for health systems reform.
    Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences 12/2014; 24(02):1-20. DOI:10.1017/S2045796014000687 · 3.91 Impact Factor
Show more