Trajectories of kinematic risky driving among novice teenagers
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVES: Elevated gravitational force event rates are associated with the likelihood of a crash or near crash and provide an objective measure of risky driving. The purpose of this research is to examine the patterns over time of kinematic measures of risky driving among novice teenage drivers. METHODS: Driving data were collected from 42 newly licensed teenage drivers during the first 18 months of licensure. Data recording systems installed in participants' vehicles provided information on driving performance and driver characteristics. Latent class and logistic regression models were used to analyze trajectories of elevated gravitational-force (g-force) event rates, called kinematic risky driving, with respect to risk groups and associated factors. RESULTS: Kinematic risky driving over the 18-month study period was best characterized as two classes, a higher-risk and a lower-risk class. The rate of kinematic risky driving during the first 6 months generally maintained over 18 months. Indeed, of those classified by latent class analysis as higher risk, 88.9%, 94.4% and 94.4% had average event rates above the median in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd 6-month periods, respectively, indicating substantial tracking over time. Friends' risky driving, friends' risky behavior, self-reported risky driving, and perceptions about risky driving and driving privileges were associated with trip-level rates of kinematic risky driving. However, none of these factors was associated with trip-level rates after stratifying by overall risk in a latent class model, although friend's risky driving was marginally significant. CONCLUSION: Kinematic risky driving tended to track over time within the lower and higher risky driving groups. Self-reported risky driving and having risky friends were predictors of kinematic risky driving rates, but these variables did not explain the heterogeneity within higher and lower classes of risky drivers.
Article: Predictors of recidivism in DUIIs.[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: The prior driving records of 397 drivers arrested for drinking and driving in the year 1983 were examined with the purpose of comparing biographical factors and variables relating to driving history and arrest circumstance between recidivist and nonrecidivist drinking drivers. Of these drivers, 174 (44%) had more than one arrest within a 12-year study period, while 223 (56%) had only one. Significant differences were found among drivers with different numbers of drinking and driving offenses. Drivers with one or two DUII arrests had more non-moving traffic violations than drivers with three or more DUII arrests. Drinking and driving offenders with higher levels of arrests were more likely to be unemployed, to have a past criminal record, to be arrested for drinking and driving on a weekday during afternoon and early evening hours, to drive with a suspended or revoked license and to refuse a blood alcohol level determination test. In this study DUII offenders with four or more arrests fit the descriptive model of alcoholism.Journal of studies on alcohol 10/1988; 49(5):443-9. DOI:10.15288/jsa.1988.49.443
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ABSTRACT: Teenagers were surveyed by telephone every 6 months from their freshman to senior high school years (N=911). Self-reported crash involvements and citations were examined for each teenager's first year of licensure and first 3500 miles driven. Based on survival analysis, the risk of a first crash during the first month of licensure (0.053) was substantially higher than during any of the next 11 months (mean risk per month: 0.025). The likelihood of a first citation during the first month of licensure (0.023) also was higher than during any of the subsequent 11 months (mean risk per month: 0.012). Similarly, when viewed as a function of cumulative miles driven, the risk of a first crash or citation was highest during the first 500 miles driven after licensure. Fewer parental restrictions (e.g. no nighttime curfew) and a lower grade point average (GPA) were associated with a higher crash risk. Male gender, a lower GPA and living in a rural area were associated with a higher citation rate.Accident Analysis & Prevention 06/2003; 35(3):311-20. DOI:10.1016/S0001-4575(02)00006-4 · 1.87 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This study reports trends from 1976 to 2001 in the number of tickets or warnings that high school seniors receive, the number of vehicle accidents in which they are drivers and the number of these events that occur after use of alcohol, marijuana or other illegal drugs. The data come from the Monitoring the Future study, in which nationally representative samples of high school seniors have been surveyed annually since 1976. Results demonstrate that the problem of unsafe or inappropriate driving among American youth is of considerable magnitude, although there has been a downward trend when adjusted for number of miles driven. The frequency of tickets received and vehicle accidents that occurred after use of alcohol has diminished markedly compared to the incidence of tickets and accidents after use of marijuana over the interval from 1976 to 2001. Despite the decline in the number of vehicle accidents occurring and tickets received after drinking or using illicit drugs, aggressive policies are still needed to deter youths from engaging in such risky behaviors.Journal of studies on alcohol 06/2003; 64(3):305-12. DOI:10.15288/jsa.2003.64.305