Intuition: A Challenge for Psychological Research on Decision Making
ABSTRACT Intuition represents an enormous challenge for research on decision making. What is intuition? How does it modify our appreciation of cognitive abilities? When should people trust intuition? These questions set the agenda for this article, which (a) defines intuition, (b) comments on how intuition has been viewed across time in the decision making literature, (c) stresses the need to specify different types of intuition, (d) discusses when intuition is likely to lead to good decisions, and (e) presents four challenges. These are, first, elucidating the evolution of preferences; second, illuminating culturally acquired values such as morals; third, the need to educate intuitive responses; and fourth, problems in using intuition for decision making in a changing world. However, the major challenge facing intuition research is the need for conceptual work to define the nature and scope of different intuitive phenomena. To be useful, the concept should not become too broad.
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ABSTRACT: Using the critical incident technique, we investigated how 88 loan officers at four Swedish banks perceived their decision making in evaluations of commercial loan applications. First, we found that our sample of loan officers primarily used deliberation and less intuition when making decisions. Second, that the loan officers had greater difficulty in making decisions that involved soft information (e.g., client relationships) than decisions that involved hard information (e.g., financial information). Third, most decision making situations involved existing rather than new clients and low rather than high risk levels. Finally, we found a potential effect of organizational factors such as lending practices on lending decisions. Our findings have general implications for research on decision making processes. For the banking industry, this research identifies and elucidates the difficulties loan officers face in decision making of commercial loans.European Management Journal. 01/2014; 32(2):362–372.
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ABSTRACT: The dominant perspective in economics and psychology has been choice as information where ex post behavioral data, i.e. utilities, satisfaction levels, are used to infer human behavior. But the increasing importance of affect—automatic, perceptive, emotional, and intuitive processes—in judgment and decision making cannot anymore be overlooked. We propose an alternative perspective where choice of information is used as behavioral data. We conducted an experiment using affect-driven choice problems under ambiguous negative task scenarios—moral dilemmas involving loved ones and risk as feeling scenarios. We offer three evidences to support our case. First, ex ante, most individuals facing risky choices attempted to confirm the threat of the task environment (confirmation bias) by asking for more information but the same individuals facing moral dilemmas avoided information (confirmation avoidance). Ex post, individuals rated high on moral dilemmas but very low in risky dilemmas. Second, response time correlations showed that individuals made fast, principled decisions, showing that affective processes were in motion in the decision process. Third, ex ante choice of information predicted more various moral, religious, and political variables than ex post preference scores.11/2013, Degree: Master of Science in Economics, Supervisor: Robin Miles Hogarth
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ABSTRACT: This paper attempts to disentangle the difference between our own self-assessment of moral judgment and intentional judgment. Using a Knobe-effect version of the Trolley Problem in our experiment, we used reactant variables—magnitude of victims, outcome probabilities, and expected outcome of lives saved—to find points were these two forms of moral judgments diverge. Outcome probabilities provided the most salient and consistent pattern, indicating that participants used outcome probabilities as their reference point in their moral decision making. We saw that, with respect to their own self-assessed moral judgments, individuals tend to be morally optimistic when the task dilemma emphasizes the lives saved, but become morally pessimistic when the same dilemma emphasizes the killing of the one other victim. Under negative probability frames, individuals tend to overestimate their attribution on positive intentions and underestimate their attribution on negative intentions.11/2013;