Contributions of Recent and Past Sexual Partnerships on Incident Human Papillomavirus Detection: Acquisition and Reactivation in Older Women

Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Cancer Research (Impact Factor: 9.28). 09/2012; 72(23). DOI: 10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-12-2635
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Understanding the fraction of newly detected human papillomavirus (HPV) infections due to acquisition and reactivation has important implications on screening strategies and prevention of HPV-associated neoplasia. Information on sexual activity and cervical samples for HPV DNA detection using Roche Linear Array were collected semi-annually for two years from 700 women age 35-60 years. Incidence and potential fraction of HPV infections associated with new and lifetime sexual partnerships were estimated using Poisson models. Cox frailty models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for potential risk factors of incident HPV detection. Recent and lifetime numbers of sexual partners were both strongly associated with incident HPV detection. However, only 13% of incident detections were attributed to new sexual partners whereas 72% were attributed to ≥5 lifetime sexual partners. Furthermore, 155 out of 183 (85%) incident HPV detections occurred during periods of sexual abstinence or monogamy, and were strongly associated with cumulative lifetime sexual exposure (HR: 4.1, 95% CI: 2.0, 8.4). This association increased with increasing age. These data challenge the paradigm that incident HPV detection is driven by current sexual behavior and new viral acquisition. Our observation that most incident HPV infection was attributable to past, not current, sexual behavior at older ages supports a natural history model of viral latency and reactivation. As the highly exposed baby-boomer generation of women with sexual debut after the sexual revolution transition to menopause, the implications of HPV reactivation at older ages on cervical cancer risk and screening recommendations should be carefully evaluated.

  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background: Estimates of the lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus (HPV) can help to quantify HPV incidence, illustrate how common HPV infection is, and highlight the importance of HPV vaccination. Methods: We developed a simple model, based primarily on the distribution of lifetime numbers of sex partners across the population and the per-partnership probability of acquiring HPV, to estimate the lifetime probability of acquiring HPV in the United States in the time frame before HPV vaccine availability. Results: We estimated the average lifetime probability of acquiring HPV among those with at least 1 opposite sex partner to be 84.6% (range, 53.6%-95.0%) for women and 91.3% (range, 69.5%-97.7%) for men. Under base case assumptions, more than 80% of women and men acquire HPV by age 45 years. Conclusions: Our results are consistent with estimates in the existing literature suggesting a high lifetime probability of HPV acquisition and are supported by cohort studies showing high cumulative HPV incidence over a relatively short period, such as 3 to 5 years.
    Sex Transm Dis 11/2014; 41(11):660-664. DOI:10.1097/OLQ.0000000000000193 · 2.75 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: SUMMARY We conducted a systematic review summarizing data on incidence of high- and low-grade lesions in women with normal baseline cervical cytology, stratified by age (<30 and ⩾30 years), and baseline human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. Incidence of high- and low-grade lesions in women aged ⩾30 years with a baseline HPV infection increased over follow-up time (5-127 months), although incidence generally remained <10%. Without baseline HPV infection, incidence of high-grade lesions remained low over follow-up time (<5% over 5-122 months). Incidence of high-grade lesions in women aged ⩾30 years with baseline HPV infection appeared similar to that in women aged <30 years. In some women aged <30 years, high-grade lesions can develop relatively shortly after initial HPV infection. We observed an increase in low-grade lesions over time in women aged ⩾30 years with baseline HPV infection, potentially indicative of an HPV infection that is potentially progressing to higher grade lesions.
    Epidemiology and Infection 05/2014; 143(02):1-17. DOI:10.1017/S0950268814001356 · 2.49 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: It is unclear whether a woman’s age influences her risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) upon detection of HPV. A large change in risk as women age would influence vaccination and screening policies. Among 972,029 women age 30-64 undergoing screening with Pap and HPV testing (Hybrid Capture 2, Qiagen, Germantown, MD, USA) at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), we calculated age-specific 5-year CIN3+ risks among women with HPV infections detected at enrollment, and among women with “newly detected” HPV infections at their second screening visit. 57,899 women (6.0%) had an enrollment HPV infection. Among the women testing HPV negative at enrollment with a second screening visit, 16,724 (3.3%) had a newly detected HPV infection at their second visit. Both enrollment and newly detected HPV rates declined with age (p<.001). Women with enrollment vs. newly detected HPV infection had higher 5-year CIN3+ risks: 8.5% vs. 3.9%, (p<.0001). Risks did not increase with age but declined slightly from 30-34 years to 60-64 years: 9.4% vs. 7.4% (p=0.017) for enrollment HPV and 5.1% vs. 3.5% (p=0.014) for newly detected HPV. Among women age 30-64 in an established screening program, women with newly detected HPV infections were at lower risk than women with enrollment infections, suggesting reduced benefit vaccinating women at older ages. Although the rates of HPV infection declined dramatically with age, the subsequent CIN3+ risks associated with HPV infection declined only slightly. The CIN3+ risks among older women are sufficiently elevated to warrant continued screening through age 65. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
    International Journal of Cancer 04/2015; 136(7). DOI:10.1002/ijc.29143 · 5.01 Impact Factor


Available from
May 16, 2014