A Preoperative Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Perioperative Mortality Following Gastric Resections for Malignancy
ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION: Surgery remains one of the major treatment options available to patients with gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to develop a preoperative nomogram based on the presence of comorbidities to predict the risk of perioperative mortality following gastric resections for malignancy. METHODS: The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database was used to create a nomogram using SAS software. The training set (years 1993, 1996-97, 1999-2000, 2002, 2004-05) was used to develop the model which was further validated using the validation set (years 1994-95, 1998, 2001, and 2003). RESULTS: A total of 14,235 and 9,404 patients were included in the training and validation sets, respectively, with overall actual observed perioperative mortality rates of 5.9 % and 6.6 %, respectively. The decile-based calibration plots for the training and validation sets revealed a good agreement between the observed and nomogram-predicted probabilities. The accuracy of the nomogram was further reinforced by a concordance index of 0.75 (95 % confidence interval 0.73 to 0.77) which was calculated using the validation set. CONCLUSION: This preoperative nomogram may accurately predict the risk of perioperative mortality following gastric resections for malignancy and may be used as an adjunctive clinical tool in the preoperative counseling of these patients.
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ABSTRACT: Background. Frequent pen operative morbidity and mortality have been observed in randomized surgical studies for gastric cancer, but specific patient factors associated with morbidity and mortality after total gastrectomy have not been well characterized. Methods. We queried the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2011) for all patients with a gastric neoplasm undergoing total gastrectomy. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with an increased risk of morbidity or mortality. Results. In 1,165 patients undergoing total gastrectomy, 416 patients (36%) experienced a complication, and 55 died (4.7%) within 30 days of operation. In a reduced multivariate model, age >70 years, preoperative weight loss, splenectomy, and pancreatectomy were associated with morbidity, whereas age >70 years, weight loss, albumin <3 g/dL, and pancreatectomy were associated with mortality (P < .05 each). The number of present preoperative risk factors stratified morbidity from 26 to 46%, with an adjacent organ resection (splenectomy, pancreatectomy) associated with 56% morbidity. Similarly, mortality rates ranged from 0.4% in those without risk factors to 5 of 9 patients with all three preoperative factors present. Patients undergoing pancreatectomy had a 13 % mortality rate. Conclusion. Total gastrectomy for malignancy is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Identification of high-risk factors may allow more rational patient selection or sequencing of therapy.Surgery 03/2014; 156(2). DOI:10.1016/j.surg.2014.03.022 · 3.11 Impact Factor