High Rates of Obesity and Non-Communicable Diseases Predicted across Latin America

National Heart Forum, London, England.
PLoS ONE (Impact Factor: 3.23). 08/2012; 7(8):e39589. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0039589
Source: PubMed


Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular disease and stroke are a major public health concern across Latin America. A key modifiable risk factor for NCDs is overweight and obesity highlighting the need for policy to reduce prevalence rates and ameliorate rising levels of NCDs. A cross-sectional regression analysis was used to project BMI and related disease trends to 2050. We tested the extent to which interventions that decrease body mass index (BMI) have an effect upon the number of incidence cases avoided for each disease. Without intervention obesity trends will continue to rise across much of Latin America. Effective interventions are necessary if rates of obesity and related diseases are to be reduced.

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    • "Concurrent increases in body size, particularly in the prevalence of overweight and obesity, have been reported for many economically developing countries and have been particularly profound and rapid in middle income countries (Prentice, 2006). Increases in body size are interpreted as an important outcome of changes in global food supplies, and raise alarm bells because of the associated health risks (Webber et al., 2012). The factors fueling the increases in body size are assumed to be changes in diet, and to a lesser extent changes in physical activity, associated with economic development, globalization and urbanization (Popkin, 2012; Swinburn et al., 2011). "
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    ABSTRACT: Objectives To quantify changes in the diets of low-income women in Cali, Colombia between 1990–1995 and 2008, a period of increases in body size, and to situate these changes within national-level trends in food availability, as well as to compare these changes with those expected in countries undergoing a nutrition transition.Methods Individual dietary intake was assessed via 24-hour recalls in both 1990–1995 (n = 85) and 2008 (n = 88). Dietary data were analyzed for intake of energy, macronutrients, and specific food items. National-level trends in food availability were evaluated using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization.ResultsTotal energy and protein intake did not change over time, but in 2008 women consumed proportionally more fat (23.0 vs. 19.1% of calories; P = 0.002) and less carbohydrate (66.5 vs. 71.0% of calories; P < 0.001) than in 1990–1995. The increased fat consumption is attributable to vegetable oils. This increase in vegetable oil consumption, and a decrease in starchy vegetable consumption, fit with both national-level trends in food supply, and the expectations of a nutrition transition. On the other hand, the increased consumption of non-starchy vegetables, and the stability in consumption of added sugars and animal-source proteins was contrary to the expectations of a nutrition transition.Conclusions The changes in diet among low-income women in Cali, Colombia between 1990–1995 and 2008 partially match national-level trends in food supply and the theoretical expectations of a nutrition transition, but are nonetheless a localized phenomenon. They do not help explain concurrent changes in body size. Am. J. Hum. Biol., 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
    American Journal of Human Biology 01/2015; 27(1). DOI:10.1002/ajhb.22621 · 1.70 Impact Factor
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    • "This rapid increase in economic growth and urbanization has resulted in nutritional changes linked to higher calorie consumption and lifestyle changes associated to reduced physical activity. [4], [15]–[17] Changes in occupation, transportation and technology directed at leisure time activities at home have also contributed to increased sedentary behavior. [6], [44]. "
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    ABSTRACT: In Central America, there has been a marked increase in obesity in the last 30 years. Over this time frame, in Panama, there have been lifestyle changes associated with economic development and urbanization that may have facilitated increases in body weight. The aim of the study is to describe the change in the prevalence of obesity in the country since 1982 and to analyze the association of obesity with gender, place of residence and socioeconomic factors. We analyzed three nationally representative cross-sectional studies and one sub-national study of Panamanian adults that evaluated anthropometric and socioeconomic variables; ENPA-1982 (n = 11 611), ENV-II 2003 (n = 14 737), ENV-III 2008 (n = 15 484), PREFREC-2010 (n = 3 590). We also evaluated one nationally representative study that evaluated people's perception of their body weight, ENSCAVI-2007 (n = 25 748). In 1982, the prevalence in males of a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2 was 3.8% (3.3 - 4.2) and in females 7.6% (6.9 - 8.2). In 2003, the prevalence in males increased to 14.4% (13.6 - 15.2) and in females to 21.8% (20.8 - 22.7). In 2008, the prevalence in males was 16.9% (16.0 - 17.7) and in females it was 23.8% (22.8 - 24.7). Nevertheless, in 2007, the national perception of being obese was only 4% among males and 6.7% among females. The highest prevalence of obesity was noted in urban areas. Female gender and higher income were found to be positively associated with obesity. Income level was positively associated with abdominal obesity in men but not in women. There has been a marked increase of obesity in Panama in the last 3 decades. Initiatives to control this problem will have to take into consideration the observed gender difference and the lifestyle changes that have contributed to the rise of this problem.
    PLoS ONE 03/2014; 9(3):e91689. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0091689 · 3.23 Impact Factor
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    • "This Irish research replicates work conducted in other countries using the UK foresight obesity model. The results of this study are consistent with that found in the Russian Federation, Poland, the UK, USA and Latin America [18,19,20,11], where the level of overweight and obesity is projected to increase, leading to an increased burden of disease and associated healthcare costs. "
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    ABSTRACT: Given the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis) in the same year were estimated at €2.55 billion. The aim of this research is to project disease burden and direct healthcare costs for these conditions in Ireland to 2030 using the established model developed by the Health Forum (UK) for the Foresight: Tackling Obesities project. Routine data sources were used to derive incidence, prevalence, mortality and survival for six conditions as inputs for the model. The model utilises a two stage modelling process to predict future BMI rates, disease prevalence and costs. Stage 1 employs a non-linear multivariate regression model to project BMI trends; stage 2 employs a microsimulation approach to produce longitudinal projections and test the impact of interventions upon future incidence of obesity-related disease. Overweight and obesity are projected to reach levels of 89% and 85% in males and females respectively by 2030. This will result in an increase in the obesity related prevalence of CHD & stroke by 97%, cancers by 61% and type 2 diabetes by 21%. The direct healthcare costs associated with these increases will amount to €5.4 billion by 2030. A 5% reduction in population BMI levels by 2030 is projected to result in €495 million less being spent in obesity-related direct healthcare costs over twenty years. These findings have significant implications for policy, highlighting the need for effective strategies to prevent this avoidable health and economic burden.
    PLoS ONE 12/2013; 8(11):e79827. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0079827 · 3.23 Impact Factor
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