Article

Risk score for intracranial hemorrhage in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator.

Calgary Stroke Program, Department of Clinical Neurosciences, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Ontario, Canada.
Stroke (Impact Factor: 6.16). 07/2012; 43(9):2293-9. DOI: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.112.660415
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT There are few validated models for prediction of risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator treatment for ischemic stroke. We used data from Get With The Guidelines-Stroke (GWTG-Stroke) to derive and validate a prediction tool for determining sICH risk.
The population consisted of 10 242 patients from 988 hospitals who received intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator within 3 hours of symptom onset from January 2009 to June 2010. This sample was randomly divided into derivation (70%) and validation (30%) cohorts. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors of intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator-related sICH in the derivation sample; model β coefficients were used to assign point scores for prediction.
sICH within 36 hours was noted in 496 patients (4.8%). Multivariable adjusted independent predictors of sICH were increasing age (17 points), higher baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (42 points), higher systolic blood pressure (21 points), higher blood glucose (8 points), Asian race (9 points), and male sex (4 points). The C-statistic was 0.71 in the derivation sample and 0.70 in the independent internal validation sample. Plots of observed versus predicted sICH showed good model calibration in the derivation and validation cohorts. The model was externally validated in National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke trial patients with a C-statistic of 0.68.
The GWTG-Stroke sICH risk "GRASPS" score provides clinicians with a validated method to determine the risk of sICH in patients treated with intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator within 3 hours of stroke symptom onset.

0 Bookmarks
 · 
104 Views
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP) classification is a simple stroke classification system with value in predicting clinical outcomes. We investigated whether and how the addition of OCSP classification to the Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke (SITS) symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) risk score improved the predictive performance. We constructed an extended risk score by adding an OCSP component, which assigns 3 points for total anterior circulation infarcts, 0 point for partial anterior circulation infarcts or lacunar infarcts. Patients with posterior circulation infarcts were assigned an extended risk score of zero. We analyzed prospectively collected data from 4 hospitals to compare the predictive performance between the original and the extended scores, using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). In a total of 548 patients, the rates of SICH were 7.3% per the National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke (NINDS) definition, 5.3% per the European-Australasian Cooperative Acute Stroke Study (ECASS) II, and 3.5% per the SITS-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST). Both scores effectively predicted SICH across all three definitions. The extended score had a higher AUC for SICH per NINDS (0.704 versus 0.624, P = 0.015) and per ECASS II (0.703 versus 0.612, P = 0.016) compared with the SITS SICH risk score. NRI for the extended risk score was 22.3% (P = 0.011) for SICH per NINDS, 21.2% (P = 0.018) per ECASS II, and 24.5% (P = 0.024) per SITS-MOST. Incorporation of the OCSP classification into the SITS SICH risk score improves risk prediction for post-thrombolysis SICH.
    BMC Neurology 03/2014; 14(1):39. · 2.56 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Predicting functional outcome and mortality after stroke, with or without thrombolysis, is a critical role of neurologists. This article reviews the predictors of outcome after ischemic stroke. Several scores were recently designed to predict (1) mortality and poor functional outcome after ischemic stroke, (2) the functional outcome and risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after thrombolysis, and (3) the risk of stroke following TIA. Validation of these prediction instruments is ongoing, and studies will be critical to determine the general applicability of these scores. Although several scores were developed to predict mortality and outcome after stroke, it may be premature to employ these prediction scores to determine individual patient outcome. Similarly, prediction scores should not be used to deny patients tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), even if the scores predict that the patient has a high likelihood of sICH or poor outcome after thrombolysis.
    Continuum (Minneapolis, Minn.). 04/2014; 20(2 Cerebrovascular Disease):412-28.
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Several prognostic scores have been developed to predict the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after ischemic stroke thrombolysis. We compared the performance of these scores in a multicenter cohort. We merged prospectively collected data of patients with consecutive ischemic stroke who received intravenous thrombolysis in 7 stroke centers. We identified and evaluated 6 scores that can provide an estimate of the risk of sICH in hyperacute settings: MSS (Multicenter Stroke Survey); HAT (Hemorrhage After Thrombolysis); SEDAN (blood sugar, early infarct signs, [hyper]dense cerebral artery sign, age, NIH Stroke Scale); GRASPS (glucose at presentation, race [Asian], age, sex [male], systolic blood pressure at presentation, and severity of stroke at presentation [NIH Stroke Scale]); SITS (Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke); and SPAN (stroke prognostication using age and NIH Stroke Scale)-100 positive index. We included only patients with available variables for all scores. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and also performed logistic regression and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The final cohort comprised 3012 eligible patients, of whom 221 (7.3%) had sICH per National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, 141 (4.7%) per European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II, and 86 (2.9%) per Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke criteria. The performance of the scores assessed with AUC-ROC for predicting European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II sICH was: MSS, 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.68); HAT, 0.65 (0.60-0.70); SEDAN, 0.70 (0.66-0.73); GRASPS, 0.67 (0.62-0.72); SITS, 0.64 (0.59-0.69); and SPAN-100 positive index, 0.56 (0.50-0.61). SEDAN had significantly higher AUC-ROC values compared with all other scores, except for GRASPS where the difference was nonsignificant. SPAN-100 performed significantly worse compared with other scores. The discriminative ranking of the scores was the same for the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, and Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke definitions, with SEDAN performing best, GRASPS second, and SPAN-100 worst. SPAN-100 had the worst predictive power, and SEDAN constantly the highest predictive power. However, none of the scores had better than moderate performance.
    Stroke 01/2014; · 6.16 Impact Factor

Full-text

View
29 Downloads
Available from
May 15, 2014