Risk score for intracranial hemorrhage in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator.

Calgary Stroke Program, Department of Clinical Neurosciences, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Ontario, Canada.
Stroke (Impact Factor: 6.16). 07/2012; 43(9):2293-9. DOI: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.112.660415
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT There are few validated models for prediction of risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator treatment for ischemic stroke. We used data from Get With The Guidelines-Stroke (GWTG-Stroke) to derive and validate a prediction tool for determining sICH risk.
The population consisted of 10 242 patients from 988 hospitals who received intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator within 3 hours of symptom onset from January 2009 to June 2010. This sample was randomly divided into derivation (70%) and validation (30%) cohorts. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors of intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator-related sICH in the derivation sample; model β coefficients were used to assign point scores for prediction.
sICH within 36 hours was noted in 496 patients (4.8%). Multivariable adjusted independent predictors of sICH were increasing age (17 points), higher baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (42 points), higher systolic blood pressure (21 points), higher blood glucose (8 points), Asian race (9 points), and male sex (4 points). The C-statistic was 0.71 in the derivation sample and 0.70 in the independent internal validation sample. Plots of observed versus predicted sICH showed good model calibration in the derivation and validation cohorts. The model was externally validated in National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke trial patients with a C-statistic of 0.68.
The GWTG-Stroke sICH risk "GRASPS" score provides clinicians with a validated method to determine the risk of sICH in patients treated with intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator within 3 hours of stroke symptom onset.

  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Predicting functional outcome and mortality after stroke, with or without thrombolysis, is a critical role of neurologists. This article reviews the predictors of outcome after ischemic stroke. Several scores were recently designed to predict (1) mortality and poor functional outcome after ischemic stroke, (2) the functional outcome and risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after thrombolysis, and (3) the risk of stroke following TIA. Validation of these prediction instruments is ongoing, and studies will be critical to determine the general applicability of these scores. Although several scores were developed to predict mortality and outcome after stroke, it may be premature to employ these prediction scores to determine individual patient outcome. Similarly, prediction scores should not be used to deny patients tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), even if the scores predict that the patient has a high likelihood of sICH or poor outcome after thrombolysis.
    Continuum (Minneapolis, Minn.). 04/2014; 20(2 Cerebrovascular Disease):412-28.
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP) classification is a simple stroke classification system with value in predicting clinical outcomes. We investigated whether and how the addition of OCSP classification to the Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke (SITS) symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) risk score improved the predictive performance. We constructed an extended risk score by adding an OCSP component, which assigns 3 points for total anterior circulation infarcts, 0 point for partial anterior circulation infarcts or lacunar infarcts. Patients with posterior circulation infarcts were assigned an extended risk score of zero. We analyzed prospectively collected data from 4 hospitals to compare the predictive performance between the original and the extended scores, using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). In a total of 548 patients, the rates of SICH were 7.3% per the National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke (NINDS) definition, 5.3% per the European-Australasian Cooperative Acute Stroke Study (ECASS) II, and 3.5% per the SITS-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST). Both scores effectively predicted SICH across all three definitions. The extended score had a higher AUC for SICH per NINDS (0.704 versus 0.624, P = 0.015) and per ECASS II (0.703 versus 0.612, P = 0.016) compared with the SITS SICH risk score. NRI for the extended risk score was 22.3% (P = 0.011) for SICH per NINDS, 21.2% (P = 0.018) per ECASS II, and 24.5% (P = 0.024) per SITS-MOST. Incorporation of the OCSP classification into the SITS SICH risk score improves risk prediction for post-thrombolysis SICH.
    BMC Neurology 03/2014; 14(1):39. · 2.56 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background Prior stroke within 3 months excludes patients from thrombolysis; however, patients may have computed tomography (CT) evidence of prior infarct, often of unknown time of origin. We aimed to determine if the presence of a previous infarct on pretreatment CT is a predictor of hemorrhagic complications and functional outcomes after the administration of intravenous (IV) tissue plasminogen activator (tPA). Methods We retrospectively analyzed consecutive patients treated with IV tPA at our institution from 2009-2011. Pretreatment CTs were reviewed for evidence of any prior infarct. Further review determined if any hemorrhagic transformation (HT) or symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) were present on repeat CT or magnetic resonance imaging. Outcomes included sICH, any HT, poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score of 4-6), and discharge disposition. Results Of 212 IV tPA-treated patients, 84 (40%) had evidence of prior infarct on pretreatment CT. Patients with prior infarcts on CT were older (median age, 72 versus 65 years; P = .001) and had higher pretreatment National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores (median, 10 versus 7; P = .023). Patients with prior infarcts on CT did not experience more sICH (4% versus 2%; P = .221) or any HT (18% versus 14%; P = .471). These patients did have a higher frequency of poor functional outcome at discharge (82% versus 50%; P < .001) and were less often discharged to home or inpatient rehabilitation center (61% versus 73%; P = .065). Conclusions Visualization of prior infarcts on pretreatment CT did not predict an increased risk of sICH in our study and should not be viewed as a reason to withhold systemic tPA treatment after clinically evident strokes within 3 months were excluded.
    Journal of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases: the official journal of National Stroke Association 01/2014;


Available from
May 15, 2014