SUMMARY We investigated the first cluster of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 reported in Brazil in May 2009. The index case-patient had travelled from the USA and had contact with 11 relatives before she presented with symptoms. We conducted face-to-face or telephone interviews with the index case-patient and all suspect cases. We found evidence of pre-symptomatic transmission of the virus to four of her contacts. This finding has public health implications because it indicates that viral transmission in communities may not be prevented solely by isolating symptomatic case-patients.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Observations on the role of pre-symptomatic transmission in the spread of influenza virus are scanty. In June 2009, an outbreak of pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection occurred at a teenager's party in Germany. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection.
We performed a retrospective cohort study among party guests. A case was defined as pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection confirmed by rRT-PCR who developed influenza-like illness between 1 and 5 June 2009. Contact patterns among party guests were evaluated.
In eight (36%) of 27 party guests, the outcome was ascertained. A travel returnee from a country with endemic pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 who fell ill toward the end of the party was identified as the source case. Party guests with pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection had talked significantly longer to the source case than non-infected persons (P-value: 0·001). Importantly, none (0/9) of those who had left the party prior to the source case's symptom onset became infected compared to 7 (41%) of 17 who stayed overnight (P = 0·06), and these persons all had transmission-prone contacts to the source case.
In this outbreak with one index case, there was no evidence to support pre-symptomatic transmission of pandemic A(H1N1) 2009. Further evidence is required, ideally from larger studies with multiple index cases, to more accurately characterize the potential for pre-symptomatic transmission of influenza virus.
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 04/2011; 5(6):e499-503. DOI:10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00251.x · 2.20 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: During an epidemiologic investigation of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 virus infection in May 2009 in Osaka, Japan, we found 3 clusters in which virus transmission occurred during the presymptomatic phase. This finding has public health implications because it indicates that viral transmission in communities cannot be prevented solely by isolating symptomatic case-patients.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The aim of this study is to identify general properties of emerging infectious agents that determine the likely success of two simple public health measures in controlling outbreaks, namely (i) isolating symptomatic individuals and (ii) tracing and quarantining their contacts. Because these measures depend on the recognition of specific disease symptoms, we investigate the relative timing of infectiousness and the appearance of symptoms by using a mathematical model. We show that the success of these control measures is determined as much by the proportion of transmission occurring prior to the onset of overt clinical symptoms (or via asymptomatic infection) as the inherent transmissibility of the etiological agent (measured by the reproductive number R(0)). From published studies, we estimate these quantities for two moderately transmissible viruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and HIV, and for two highly transmissible viruses, smallpox and pandemic influenza. We conclude that severe acute respiratory syndrome and smallpox are easier to control using these simple public health measures. Direct estimation of the proportion of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections is achievable by contact tracing and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 05/2004; 101(16):6146-51. DOI:10.1073/pnas.0307506101 · 9.67 Impact Factor
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