Scenarios of world anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane up to 2030

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    ABSTRACT: The influence of anthropogenic emissions on aerosol distributions and the hydrological cycle are examined with a focus on monsoon precipitation over the Indian subcontinent, during January 2001 to December 2005, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Hamburg (ECHAM5.5) general circulation model extended by the Hamburg Aerosol Module (HAM). The seasonal variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra and Aqua satellite is broadly well simulated (R ≈ 0.6–0.85) by the model. The spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of the precipitation observed over the Indian region are reasonably well simulated (R ≈ 0.5 to 0.8) by the model, while in terms of absolute magnitude, the model underestimates precipitation, in particular in the south-west (SW) monsoon season. The model simulates significant anthropogenic aerosol-induced changes in clear-sky net surface solar radiation (dimming greater than −7 W m−2), which agrees well with the observed trends over the Indian region. A statistically significant decreasing precipitation trend is simulated only for the SW monsoon season over the central-north Indian region, which is consistent with the observed seasonal trend over the Indian region. In the model, this decrease results from a reduction in convective precipitation, where there is an increase in stratiform cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) and solar dimming that resulted from increased stability and reduced evaporation. Similarities in spatial patterns suggest that surface cooling, mainly by the aerosol indirect effect, is responsible for this reduction in convective activity. When changes in large-scale dynamics are allowed by slightly disturbing the initial state of the atmosphere, aerosol absorption in addition leads to a further stabilization of the lower troposphere, further reducing convective precipitation.
    Journal of Geophysical Research 04/2013; 118:2938-2955. · 3.17 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: The main GHGs (CO2, NOx, and SO2) have been quantified based on national energy and population statistics. The results show that the contribution of households' energy consumption in the West Bank to global CO2 emission is about 0.016%, while contribution of total energy consumption by all sectors is about 0.041%. The results show that wood is the most polluting energy source in terms of CO2 and NOx emission, while electricity is the most polluting source in terms of SO2. Other sources like diesel, kerosene, and LPG that contribute to the GHGs emission are also quantified. The total amounts of CO2, NOx, and SO2 by households in the West Bank are 4.7 million tonne per year, 3.02 thousand tonne per year, and 2.23 thousand tonne per year respectively. This study presents a set of measures that might help in reducing the level of GHGs emission and protect the environment.
    Environmental Pollution 05/2013; 179C:250-257. · 3.73 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: In this paper we analyse aerosol loading and its direct radiative effects over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) regions for the Integrated Campaign on Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB) undertaken during 2006, using satellite data from the MODerate Res-olution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, the Aerosol Index from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite, and the European-Community Hamburg (ECHAM5.5) gen-eral circulation model extended by Hamburg Aerosol Mod-ule (HAM). By statistically comparing with large-scale satel-lite data sets, we firstly show that the aerosol properties mea-sured during the ship-based ICARB campaign and simulated by the model are representative for the BoB and AS regions and the pre-monsoon season. In a second step, the mod-elled aerosol distributions were evaluated by a comparison with the measurements from the ship-based sunphotometer, and the satellite retrievals during ICARB. It is found that the model broadly reproduces the observed spatial and tempo-ral variability in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over BoB and AS regions. However, AOD was systematically underesti-mated during high-pollution episodes, especially in the BoB leg. We show that this underprediction of AOD is mostly be-cause of the deficiencies in the coarse mode, where the model shows that dust is the dominant component. The analysis of dust AOD along with the OMI Aerosol Index indicate that missing dust transport that results from too low dust emis-sion fluxes over the Thar Desert region in the model caused this deficiency. Thirdly, we analysed the spatio-temporal variability of AOD comparing the ship-based observations to the large-scale satellite observations and simulations. It was found that most of the variability along the track was from geographical patterns, with a minor influence by single events. Aerosol fields were homogeneous enough to yield a good statistical agreement between satellite data at a 1 • spa-tial, but only twice-daily temporal resolution, and the ship-based sunphotometer data at a much finer spatial, but daily-average temporal resolution. Examination of the satellite data further showed that the year 2006 is representative for the five-year period for which satellite data were available. Finally, we estimated the clear-sky solar direct aerosol ra-diative forcing (DARF). We found that the cruise represents well the regional-seasonal mean forcings. Constraining sim-ulated forcings using the observed AOD distributions yields a robust estimate of regional-seasonal mean DARF of −8.6, −21.4 and +12.9 W m −2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface (SUR) and in the atmosphere (ATM), respec-tively, for the BoB region, and over the AS, of, −6.8, −12.8, and +6 W m −2 at TOA, SUR, and ATM, respectively.
    ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 01/2012; 12:1287-1305. · 5.51 Impact Factor

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