Two experiments examined the estimation of event duration. In Experiment 1 subjects estimated the expected duration of five everyday activities, performed the activities, and then made retrospective estimates of the duration of the activities. Expected and retrospective estimates were positively correlated, even when actual duration was taken into account suggesting both estimates may have been constructed partly from general knowledge of activity duration. Experiment 2 examined the ability to predict activity duration within a time management framework. Results indicated that subjects' accuracy in predicting the duration of a series of events was not related to time management ability as measured by the Time Structure Questionnaire (TSQ). Subjects generally made overestimations, and this tendency may be a strategy that gives a feeling of control over time and helps avoid stress caused by an inability to complete tasks in the allocated time. No relationship was found between expected duration estimation ability and academic performance.
"However, they did not think of other solutions that we found mentioned in literature (such as e.g. controlling the consciousness of experts  and leveraging the use of consistent information ). Third, our results agree with the findings in the planning fallacy studies of Roy et al. . "
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: An Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) project estimation process often relies on experts of various backgrounds to contribute judgments based on their professional experience. Such expert judgments however may not be bias-free. De-biasing techniques therefore have been proposed in the software estimation literature to counter various problems of expert bias. Yet, most studies on de-biasing focus on systematic bias types such as bias due to interdependence, improper comparisons, presence of irrelevant information, and awareness of clients' expectations. Little has been done to address bias due to experts' memory. This is surprising, knowing that memory bias retrieval and encoding errors are likely to affect the estimation process outcome. This qualitative exploratory study investigates the memory bias situations encountered by ERP professionals, and the possible coping strategies to problems pertaining to those situations. Using interviews with 11 practitioners in a global ERP vendor's organization, we explicate how experts retrieve and encode stored memory, what kind of errors they experience along the way, and what correction techniques they were using. We found that both errors due to memory retrieval and due to memory encoding seemed to lead to project effort underestimation. We also found that the most common memory correction strategy was the use of mnemonics.
16th International Conference on Product-Focused Software Process Improvement (PROFES 2015), Bolzano; 12/2015
"An analysis of the literature suggests that, psychographic variables such as achievement motivation, self-efficacy, time management, and leisure attitude are important variables in determining students' overall achievement which has gained substantial support from research (Bandura, 1997; Bandura & Locke, 2003; Burt & Kemp, 1994; Helmreich & Spence, 1983; Lim, 2009; Macan, 1994; Ragheb & Beard, 1982; Schwarzer, 1992). In this context, Wells (1975) pointed out that psychographics adds new dimensions that go beyond the scope of demographics into a variety of previously unfamiliar areas. "
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Even though the discipline of psychology and education had gained its reputation all along, few studies have been conducted to determine the characteristics of the potential first-class undergraduate students. Thus, this study was designed to examine the demographic and psychographic profiles of the potential first-class undergraduates in a Malaysian public university. The selected respondents comprised of 424 undergraduates who obtained at least 3.67 cumulative grade point average (CGPA) in their academic achievement in the period of their study. This study used a self-administered questionnaire that had adapted from the standardized measures. Validity and reliability of the instruments were found to be satisfactory. The results of the study indicate that the potential first-class undergraduates have the highest level on task orientation whereas time management scores the lowest. Also, the results reveal that more than 99% of the students have either moderate or high levels of psychographic attributes. In addition, the MANOVA results indicate that there are significant differences between male and female undergraduate students in their task orientation and leisure attitude. Likewise, significant differences between ethnic groups are found in task orientation, competitiveness, and general self-efficacy. Thus, the findings of this study are able to assist the higher education providers in providing coaching and mentoring to ensure more effective strategies could be developed to improve students’ needs and desires in pursuing their further education.
Review of European Studies 02/2015; 7(3). DOI:10.5539/res.v7n3p253
"In some cases this may produce more accurate predictions (Pezzo et al., 2006), but in other cases it may produce less accurate predictions (Burt & Kemp, 1994). There have also been attempts to link time predictions to a general trait of optimism, but results are inconclusive. "
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Halkjelsvik, T., Rognaldsen, M. & Teigen, K. H. (2012). Desire for control and optimistic time predictions. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 53, 499–505.
Few studies have investigated individual differences in time predictions. We report two experiments that show an interaction between the personality trait Desirability of Control and reward conditions on predictions of performance time. When motivated to perform a task quickly, participants with a strong desire for control produced more optimistic predictions than those with a weaker desire for control. This effect could also be observed for a completely uncontrollable task. The results are discussed in relation to the finding that power produces more optimistic predictions, and extend this work by ruling out some previously suggested explanations.
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