Modelling the effects of climate change on the potential feeding activity of Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Den. & Schiff.) (Lep., Notodontidae) in France
ABSTRACT Aim We investigated whether climate change has affected the potential feeding activity of a winter active larva, the pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopoea pityocampa L., and whether it may explain its range expansion.Location The study area is France and, at a smaller scale, the Paris Basin.Methods We used a statistical model derived from Huchon and Démolin [1970 Revue Forestière Française (special issue: La lutte biologique en forêt), 220–234] to test whether their model, updated with climate change, could explain the observed range expansion. Since Battisti and colleagues have recently shown that climate could affect survival of the PPM through its effect on feeding activity, we also developed a mechanistic model based on larval feeding requirements (night air temperature above 0 °C and temperature inside the nest above 9 °C on the preceding day). We reconstructed the geographical distribution of feeding activity and we compared the resulting change with the PPM range expansion.Results The statistical model did not successfully predict the observed expansion but the mechanistic model showed considerable change in the feeding activity of the PPM. In the Paris Basin, the PPM border coincided with a zone unfavourable for feeding activity in the period 1992–96. Feeding conditions became more favourable in the period 2001–04, and the PPM succeeded in crossing this zone. Over larger temporal and spatial scales improved feeding conditions in the north-western part of France were forecast by the mechanistic model.Main conclusions (1) The range distribution of the PPM in the Paris Basin is no longer limited by unfavourable feeding conditions. (2) The pattern of range expansion of the PPM is now governed mainly by its dispersal capabilities and host tree distribution. (3) At the country scale, this approach gives an approximate prediction of the potential distribution of the PPM, though the model may not be reliable in mountainous regions.
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ABSTRACT: The "Étude et Simulation de la QUalité de l'air en Ile de France" (ESQUIF) project is the first integrated project dedicated to the study of the processes leading to air pollution events over the Paris area. The project was carried out over two years (summer 1998 to winter 2000) to document all types of meteorological conditions favourable to air quality degradation, and in particular to photo oxydant formation. The goals of ESQUIF are (1) to improve our understanding of the relevant chemical and dynamical processes and, in turn, improve their parametrizations in numerical models, and (2) to improve and validate existing models dedicated to pollution analysis, scenarios and/or forecasting, by establishing a comprehensive and thorough database. We present the rationale of the ESQUIF project and we describe the experimental set-up. We also report on the first experiments which took place during the summer of 1998 involving surface networks, and remote sensing instruments as well as several aircraft. Focusing on three days of August 1998, the relative contributions of long-range transported and locally-produced ozone to the elevated ozone concentrations observed during this period are discussed and chemistry-transport model preliminary results on this period are compared to measurements. Key words: Atmospheric composition and structure (pollution – urban and regional; troposphere – composition and chemistry) – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology)Annales Geophysicae 10/2000; · 1.52 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: 1. Considerable evidence indicates that the Earth's climate has warmed over the past 20 years and most models predict that this process will continue or accelerate. Previous studies involving butterflies and other species have shown that ranges have shifted towards the poles although the mechanisms responsible for these range shifts have not been demonstrated conclusively.2. Here it is reported that the range of the meadow spittlebug has moved northward along the California coast since 1988.3. Survival and reproduction of this species in previous laboratory experiments were very sensitive to humidity and temperature. Small deviations from optimal conditions resulted in high mortality.4. These laboratory results were corroborated by annual field censuses from one location since 1983 in which population densities of spittlebug nymphs were positively correlated with summer humidity and negatively correlated with temperature deviations from the published optimum. Thus it is shown that there are strong links between physiological tolerance and a geographic range shift associated with climatic change.Ecological Entomology 03/2004; 29(2):251 - 254. · 1.95 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 °C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rateNature 01/2003; 421(6918):57-60. · 38.60 Impact Factor