Article

Relationship between global mean sea-level and global mean temperature in a climate simulation of the past millennium

GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht Germany; KlimaKampus Hamburg Germany
Ocean Dynamics (impact factor: 1.77). 04/2012; 58(3):227-236. DOI:10.1007/s10236-008-0142-9

ABSTRACT The possibility of using global mean near-surface temperature, its rate of change or the global mean ocean heat-flux as predictors
to statistically estimate the change of global mean sea-level is explored in the context of a long climate simulation of the
past millennium with the climate model ECHO-G. Such relationships have recently been proposed to by-pass the difficulty of
estimating future sea-level changes based on simulations with coarse-resolution climate models. It is found that, in this
simulation, a simple linear relationship between mean temperature and the rate of change of sea level does not exist. A regression
parameter linking both variables, and estimated in sliding 120-year windows, varies widely along the simulation and, in some
periods, even attains negative values. The ocean heat-flux and the rate-of-change of mean temperature seem to better capture
the rate-of-change of sea level due to thermal expansion.

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Keywords

attains negative values
 
by-pass
 
climate model ECHO-G
 
climate simulation
 
coarse-resolution climate models
 
future sea-level changes
 
global
 
millennium
 
ocean heat-flux
 
rate-of-change
 
sea level
 
sea-level
 
simple linear relationship
 
simulations
 
statistically estimate
 
thermal expansion
 
variables