Mortality from the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919: the case of India.
ABSTRACT Estimates of worldwide mortality from the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 vary widely, from 15 million to 100 million. In terms of loss of life, India was the focal point of this profound demographic event. In this article, we calculate mortality from the influenza pandemic in India using panel data models and data from the Census of India. The new estimates suggest that for the districts included in the sample, mortality was at most 13.88 million, compared with 17.21 million when calculated using the assumptions of Davis (1951). We conclude that Davis' influential estimate of mortality from influenza in British India is overstated by at least 24%. Future analyses of the effects of the pandemic on demographic change in India and worldwide will need to account for this significant downward revision.
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ABSTRACT: The 1918-19 'Spanish' Influenza was the most devastating pandemic in recent history, with estimates of global mortality ranging from 20 to 50 million. The focal point of the pandemic was India, with an estimated death toll of between 10 and 20 million. We will characterize the pattern of spread, mortality, and evolution of the 1918 influenza across India using spatial or temporal data.BMC Infectious Diseases 09/2014; 14(1):510. DOI:10.1186/1471-2334-14-510 · 2.56 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Influenza is an acute respiratory illness caused by influenza A or B viruses, which occurs in outbreaks worldwide every year, mainly during the winter seasons in temperate climates. The seasonality of influenza in tropical and subtropical region varies greatly. Influenza causes an appreciable disease burden (e.g. school and work absenteeism, increased frequency of outpatient medical visits), and children play an important role for the spread of disease. Influenza is a vaccine preventable disease, and safe and effective vaccines have been used to mitigate the impact of seasonal epidemics. The strains included in the vaccine are updated each year to correlate with the strains anticipated to circulate during the coming influenza season. Vaccine formulations are published twice annually by the World Health Organization (WHO), usually in February for NH formulation and September for next year’s SH formulation. In the current chapter, we summarize influenza biology, epidemiology, seasonality with emphasis on clinical management and intervention strategies including influenza vaccines.IAP Textbook of Vaccines, 01/2014: chapter 35: pages 341-356;
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ABSTRACT: Scarce information about the epidemiology of historical influenza pandemics in South America prevents complete understanding of pandemic patterns throughout the continent and across different climatic zones. To fill gaps with regard to spatiotemporal patterns of deaths associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Chile, we reviewed archival records. We found evidence that multiple pandemic waves at various times of the year and of varying intensities occurred during 1918-1921 and that influenza-related excess deaths peaked during July-August 1919. Pandemic-associated mortality rates were elevated for all age groups, including for adults >50 years of age; elevation from baseline was highest for young adults. Overall, the rate of excess deaths from the pandemic was estimated at 0.94% in Chile, similar to rates reported elsewhere in Latin America, but rates varied ≈10-fold across provinces. Patterns of death during the pandemic were affected by variation in host-specific susceptibility, population density, baseline death rate, and climate.Emerging Infectious Diseases 11/2014; 20(11):1803-11. DOI:10.3201/eid2011.130632 · 7.33 Impact Factor