Obesity and Severe Obesity Forecasts Through 2030

Health Services and Systems Research Program, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore.
American journal of preventive medicine (Impact Factor: 4.53). 06/2012; 42(6):563-70. DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2011.10.026
Source: PubMed


Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off.
This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used to simulate the savings that could be achieved through modestly successful obesity prevention efforts.
The study was conducted in 2009-2010 and used data from the 1990 through 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The analysis sample included nonpregnant adults aged ≥ 18 years. The individual-level BRFSS variables were supplemented with state-level variables from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association, and the Census of Retail Trade. Future obesity and severe obesity prevalence were estimated through regression modeling by projecting trends in explanatory variables expected to influence obesity prevalence.
Linear time trend forecasts suggest that by 2030, 51% of the population will be obese. The model estimates a much lower obesity prevalence of 42% and severe obesity prevalence of 11%. If obesity were to remain at 2010 levels, the combined savings in medical expenditures over the next 2 decades would be $549.5 billion.
The study estimates a 33% increase in obesity prevalence and a 130% increase in severe obesity prevalence over the next 2 decades. If these forecasts prove accurate, this will further hinder efforts for healthcare cost containment.

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    • "Within the USA, more than one-third of adults are obese, and more than 6% are severely obese (Fryar, Carroll, & Ogden, 2014). By 2030, it is estimated that there will be a 33% increase in obesity and a 130% increase in severe obesity (Finkelstein et al., 2012) – thus more than 1 in 10 American adults will be severely obese. Consistent with its prevalence, obesity also produces a substantial economic burden, costing an estimated $147 billion dollars in 2008. "
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    ABSTRACT: This review paper will discuss the recent literature examining the relationship between obesity and neurocognitive outcomes, with a particular focus on cognitive changes after bariatric surgery. Obesity is now recognized as an independent risk factor for adverse neurocognitive outcomes, and severely obese persons appear to be at even greater risk. Bariatric surgery is associated with rapid improvements in cognitive function that persist for at least several years, although the mechanisms underlying these improvements are incompletely understood. Assessment of cognitive impairment in bariatric surgery patients is challenging, and improved methods are needed, as poorer performance on neuropsychological tests of memory and executive function leads to poorer clinical weight outcomes. In addition to its clinical importance, further study in this area will provide key insight into obesity-related cognitive dysfunction and clarify the possibility of an obesity paradox for neurological outcomes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.
    European Eating Disorders Review 08/2015; DOI:10.1002/erv.2393 · 2.46 Impact Factor
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    • "Obesity and its consequences are some of the leading causes of mortality in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control recently reported a nationwide obesity rate of 35%, a number that is expected to grow to a staggering 51% by the year 2030 if current trends persist [1] [2]. While cancer is also a leading cause of death in the US, screening and early detection programs combined with improved treatment modalities are creating a growing number of long-term cancer survivors. "
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    ABSTRACT: Burnout is specific to the work domain and in physicians is indicative of emotional exhaustion, depersonalization in relationships with co-workers and detachment from patients, and a sense of inadequacy or low personal accomplishment. The purpose of this study was to determine the burnout rate among gynecologic oncologists and evaluate other personal, professional and psychosocial factors associated with this condition. This study used a cross-sectional design. Current members of the Society of Gynecologic Oncology were sent an anonymous email survey including 76 items measuring burnout, psychosocial distress, career satisfaction, and quality of life. 1086 members were invited, 436 (40.1%) responded, and 369 (84.6%) completed the survey. Thirty percent of physicians scored high for emotional exhaustion, 10% high for depersonalization and 11% low for personal accomplishment. Overall, 32% of physicians scored above clinical cut-offs indicating burnout. 33% screened positive for depression 13% endorsed a history of suicidal ideation, 15% screened positive for alcohol abuse, and 34% reported impaired quality of life . Nonetheless, 70% reported high levels of personal accomplishment, and results suggested most were satisfied with their careers, as 89% would enter medicine again and 61% would encourage their child enter medicine. Respondents with high burnout scores were less likely to report they would become a physician again (p .002), to encourage a child to enter medicine (p<.001), and more likely to screen positive for depression (p<.001), alcohol abuse (p .02), history of suicidal ideation (p <.001), and impaired quality of life (p<.001). Burnout is a significant problem associated with psychosocial distress and lower levels of career satisfaction in gynecologic oncologists. Burnout in obstetrics-gynecology and gynecologic oncology is of particular concern as young age and female gender are often identified as risk factors for this significant problem. Interventions targeted at improving quality of life, treatment of depression, or alcohol abuse may have an impact on burnout. However, significant barriers may exist as 44.5% of respondents in this study reported that they would be reluctant to seek medical care for depression, substance use, or other mental health issues due to concerns about their medical license. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
    American journal of obstetrics and gynecology 07/2015; DOI:10.1016/j.ajog.2015.07.036 · 4.70 Impact Factor
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    • "According to the " Turkey Nutrition and Health Survey: 2010 " report, the obesity rate in Turkey was found to be 30.3%. Finkelstein et al have estimated that there will be an increase in the prevalence of obesity in the future [3]. Obesity was seen in 19.5% of living kidney donors in 2008 [4]. "
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    ABSTRACT: The incidence of obesity is increasing all around the world and Turkey is no exception. In Turkey, 80.1% of all kidney transplants performed in 2013 were living donor kidney transplants. In this study we compare the early postoperative complications of living kidney donors with a body mass index (BMI) over 30 to those with BMIs under 30. All donor nephrectomies performed at the Ege University School of Medicine Hospital between May 2013 and May 2014 were included in the study. Donors' demographics, preoperative BMI, operation time, length of hospital stay, postoperative complications, and perioperative blood creatinine levels were analyzed. There were a total of 72 donors, 50 of whom had a BMI below 30 (group 1), whereas 22 had a BMI of 30 or higher (Group 2). The median age was 47 (±12.6) and 52.2 (±8.4) for Groups 1 and 2, respectively. The median BMI was 26.1 (±2.3) for Group 1 and 31.8 (±1.5) for Group 2. There was no significant difference in operation time (P = .980) between the 2 groups. There was no difference in the length of hospitalization with an average hospital stay of 3 days for both groups. No major complications were observed in either group. There was no difference in minor complication rates for both groups. High BMI donors can safely donate their kidney with no significant increase in complication rates at high-volume transplantation centers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
    Transplantation Proceedings 06/2015; 47(5):1291-1293. DOI:10.1016/j.transproceed.2015.04.061 · 0.98 Impact Factor
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