Obesity and Severe Obesity Forecasts Through 2030

Health Services and Systems Research Program, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore.
American journal of preventive medicine (Impact Factor: 4.53). 06/2012; 42(6):563-70. DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2011.10.026
Source: PubMed


Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off.
This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used to simulate the savings that could be achieved through modestly successful obesity prevention efforts.
The study was conducted in 2009-2010 and used data from the 1990 through 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The analysis sample included nonpregnant adults aged ≥ 18 years. The individual-level BRFSS variables were supplemented with state-level variables from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association, and the Census of Retail Trade. Future obesity and severe obesity prevalence were estimated through regression modeling by projecting trends in explanatory variables expected to influence obesity prevalence.
Linear time trend forecasts suggest that by 2030, 51% of the population will be obese. The model estimates a much lower obesity prevalence of 42% and severe obesity prevalence of 11%. If obesity were to remain at 2010 levels, the combined savings in medical expenditures over the next 2 decades would be $549.5 billion.
The study estimates a 33% increase in obesity prevalence and a 130% increase in severe obesity prevalence over the next 2 decades. If these forecasts prove accurate, this will further hinder efforts for healthcare cost containment.

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    • "Within the USA, more than one-third of adults are obese, and more than 6% are severely obese (Fryar, Carroll, & Ogden, 2014). By 2030, it is estimated that there will be a 33% increase in obesity and a 130% increase in severe obesity (Finkelstein et al., 2012) – thus more than 1 in 10 American adults will be severely obese. Consistent with its prevalence, obesity also produces a substantial economic burden, costing an estimated $147 billion dollars in 2008. "
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    ABSTRACT: This review paper will discuss the recent literature examining the relationship between obesity and neurocognitive outcomes, with a particular focus on cognitive changes after bariatric surgery. Obesity is now recognized as an independent risk factor for adverse neurocognitive outcomes, and severely obese persons appear to be at even greater risk. Bariatric surgery is associated with rapid improvements in cognitive function that persist for at least several years, although the mechanisms underlying these improvements are incompletely understood. Assessment of cognitive impairment in bariatric surgery patients is challenging, and improved methods are needed, as poorer performance on neuropsychological tests of memory and executive function leads to poorer clinical weight outcomes. In addition to its clinical importance, further study in this area will provide key insight into obesity-related cognitive dysfunction and clarify the possibility of an obesity paradox for neurological outcomes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.
    European Eating Disorders Review 08/2015; DOI:10.1002/erv.2393 · 2.46 Impact Factor
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    • "According to the " Turkey Nutrition and Health Survey: 2010 " report, the obesity rate in Turkey was found to be 30.3%. Finkelstein et al have estimated that there will be an increase in the prevalence of obesity in the future [3]. Obesity was seen in 19.5% of living kidney donors in 2008 [4]. "
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    ABSTRACT: The incidence of obesity is increasing all around the world and Turkey is no exception. In Turkey, 80.1% of all kidney transplants performed in 2013 were living donor kidney transplants. In this study we compare the early postoperative complications of living kidney donors with a body mass index (BMI) over 30 to those with BMIs under 30. All donor nephrectomies performed at the Ege University School of Medicine Hospital between May 2013 and May 2014 were included in the study. Donors' demographics, preoperative BMI, operation time, length of hospital stay, postoperative complications, and perioperative blood creatinine levels were analyzed. There were a total of 72 donors, 50 of whom had a BMI below 30 (group 1), whereas 22 had a BMI of 30 or higher (Group 2). The median age was 47 (±12.6) and 52.2 (±8.4) for Groups 1 and 2, respectively. The median BMI was 26.1 (±2.3) for Group 1 and 31.8 (±1.5) for Group 2. There was no significant difference in operation time (P = .980) between the 2 groups. There was no difference in the length of hospitalization with an average hospital stay of 3 days for both groups. No major complications were observed in either group. There was no difference in minor complication rates for both groups. High BMI donors can safely donate their kidney with no significant increase in complication rates at high-volume transplantation centers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
    Transplantation Proceedings 06/2015; 47(5):1291-1293. DOI:10.1016/j.transproceed.2015.04.061 · 0.98 Impact Factor
    • "One such pull is the rise of healthy eating communications , and social marketing campaigns devised by policymakers who seek to encourage healthier dietary habits among consumers. Indeed, the dramatic rise in obesity over the past decade (Finkelstein et al., 2012; Stevens et al., 2012) has prompted academic discourse to assist the development of interventional public policies (Andreasen, 2011), along with a number of healthy eating campaigns (e.g., " Eat4Life " and " 5-a-day Campaign " in the United Kingdom). This pull, in turn, has resulted in a push response by the food industry in the form of brand new foods marketed as healthier or healthy (Kleinschmidt, 2003; Lahteenmaki, 2003; Menrad , 2003; Wansink, 2007), in order to convey a better fit with the new healthy eating paradigm, without necessarily being healthier than the alternatives. "
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    ABSTRACT: This paper examines the impact of consumer confusion on nutrition knowledge, literacy, and dietary behavior. While previous research largely focuses on understanding why consumers might not respond to healthy eating communications, this paper seeks to uncover the various behavioral responses to such campaigns, particularly those that contravene health communication objectives. Using an interpretive methodology, findings suggest that most participants do respond to health communications by striving to eat healthily, but inadequate nutrition information derived from unreliable sources, flawed baseline nutrition knowledge, and poor nutrition literacy hinder participants’ efforts. Inconsistent, incomplete, and contradictory information leaves many participants feeling confused about how to implement healthy eating habits. Further, a lack of ability to differentiate between credible and unreliable sources of nutrition information means that many participants blame their confusion on policymakers, and express frustration and cynicism toward vague and often contradictory communications. This, in turn, increases participants’ reliance on food adverts, product labels, and other commercial sources of ambiguous yet appealing information. The paper's theoretical contribution includes a consumer confusion framework for healthy eating, and policy implications highlight that health campaigns seeking to increase consumer awareness of healthy eating are not enough. Policymakers must become the most credible sources of information about healthy eating, and distinguish themselves from competing and unreliable sources of nutrition information.
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