Characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of malaria incidence in Bangladesh, 2007.

Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, Level 4 Public Health Building, School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Herston, QLD, 4006, Australia. .
Malaria Journal (Impact Factor: 3.49). 05/2012; 11:170. DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-11-170
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Malaria remains a significant health problem in Bangladesh affecting 13 of 64 districts. The risk of malaria is variable across the endemic areas and throughout the year. A better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns in malaria risk and the determinants driving the variation are crucial for the appropriate targeting of interventions under the National Malaria Control and Prevention Programme.
Numbers of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria cases reported by month in 2007, across the 70 endemic thanas (sub-districts) in Bangladesh, were assembled from health centre surveillance reports. Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with fixed effects for monthly rainfall, maximum temperature and elevation, and random effects for thanas, with a conditional autoregressive prior spatial structure.
The annual incidence of reported cases was 34.0 and 9.6 cases/10,000 population for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively and the population of the 70 malaria-endemic thanas was approximately 13.5 million in 2007. Incidence of reported cases for both types of malaria was highest in the mountainous south-east of the country (the Chittagong Hill Tracts). Models revealed statistically significant positive associations between the incidence of reported P. vivax and P. falciparum cases and rainfall and maximum temperature.
The risk of P. falciparum and P. vivax was spatially variable across the endemic thanas of Bangladesh and also highly seasonal, suggesting that interventions should be targeted and timed according to the risk profile of the endemic areas. Rainfall, temperature and elevation are major factors driving the spatiotemporal patterns of malaria in Bangladesh.

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    ABSTRACT: Background Malaria is endemic in 13 of 64 districts in Bangladesh. About 14 million people are at risk. Some evidence suggests that the prevalence of malaria in Bangladesh has decreased since the the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria started to support the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) in 2007. We did an epidemiological and economic assessment of malaria control in Bangladesh. Methods We obtained annually reported, district-level aggregated malaria case data and information about disbursed funds from the NMCP. We used a Poisson regression model to examine the associations between total malaria, severe malaria, malaria-attributable mortality, and insecticide-treated net coverage. We identifi ed and mapped malaria hotspots using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. We estimated the cost-eff ectiveness of the NMCP by estimating the cost per confi rmed case, cost per treated case, and cost per person of insecticide-treated net coverage. Findings During the study period (from Jan 1, 2008, to Dec 31, 2012) there were 285 731 confi rmed malaria cases. Malaria decreased from 6·2 cases per 1000 population in 2008, to 2·1 cases per 1000 population in 2012. Prevalence of all malaria decreased by 65% (95% CI 65–66), severe malaria decreased by 79% (78–80), and malaria-associated mortality decreased by 91% (83–95). By 2012, there was one insecticide-treated net for every 2·6 individuals (SD 0·20). Districts with more than 0·5 insecticide-treated nets per person had a decrease in prevalence of 21% (95% CI 19–23) for all malaria, 25% (17–32) for severe malaria, and 76% (35–91) for malaria-associated mortality among all age groups. Malaria hotspots remained in the highly endemic districts in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. The cost per diagnosed case was US$0·39 (SD 0·02) and per treated case was $0·51 (0·27); $0·05 (0·04) was invested per person per year for health education and $0·68 (0·30) was spent per person per year for insecticide-treated net coverage. Interpretation Malaria elimination is an achievable prospect in Bangladesh and failure to push for elimination nearly ensures a resurgence of disease. Consistent fi nancing is needed to avoid resurgence and maintain elimination goals. Funding None.
    The Lancet Global Health. 02/2014; 2(2).
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    ABSTRACT: Pregnancy is a known risk factor for malaria which is associated with increased maternal and infant mortality and morbidity in areas of moderate-high malaria transmission intensity where Plasmodium falciparum predominates. The nature and impact of malaria, however, is not well understood in pregnant women residing in areas of low, unstable malaria transmission where P. falciparum and P. vivax co-exist.
    PLoS ONE 01/2014; 9(5):e98442. · 3.53 Impact Factor
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    The Lancet Global Health. 02/2014;


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Jun 11, 2014