Characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of malaria incidence in Bangladesh, 2007
ABSTRACT Malaria remains a significant health problem in Bangladesh affecting 13 of 64 districts. The risk of malaria is variable across the endemic areas and throughout the year. A better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns in malaria risk and the determinants driving the variation are crucial for the appropriate targeting of interventions under the National Malaria Control and Prevention Programme.
Numbers of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria cases reported by month in 2007, across the 70 endemic thanas (sub-districts) in Bangladesh, were assembled from health centre surveillance reports. Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with fixed effects for monthly rainfall, maximum temperature and elevation, and random effects for thanas, with a conditional autoregressive prior spatial structure.
The annual incidence of reported cases was 34.0 and 9.6 cases/10,000 population for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively and the population of the 70 malaria-endemic thanas was approximately 13.5 million in 2007. Incidence of reported cases for both types of malaria was highest in the mountainous south-east of the country (the Chittagong Hill Tracts). Models revealed statistically significant positive associations between the incidence of reported P. vivax and P. falciparum cases and rainfall and maximum temperature.
The risk of P. falciparum and P. vivax was spatially variable across the endemic thanas of Bangladesh and also highly seasonal, suggesting that interventions should be targeted and timed according to the risk profile of the endemic areas. Rainfall, temperature and elevation are major factors driving the spatiotemporal patterns of malaria in Bangladesh.
Full-textDOI: · Available from: Md Ubydul Haque, May 31, 2015
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ABSTRACT: The System for Early-warning based on Emergency Data (SEED) is a pilot project to evaluate the use of emergency call data with the main complaint acute undifferentiated fever (AUF) for syndromic surveillance in India. While spatio-temporal methods provide signals to detect potential disease outbreaks, additional information about socio-ecological exposure factors and the main population at risk is necessary for evidence-based public health interventions and future preparedness strategies. The goal of this study is to investigate whether a spatial epidemiological analysis at the ecological level provides information on urban-rural inequalities, socio-ecological exposure factors and the main population at risk for AUF. Our results displayed higher risks in rural areas with strong local variation. Household industries and proximity to forests were the main socio-ecological exposure factors and scheduled tribes were the main population at risk for AUF. These results provide additional information for syndromic surveillance and could be used for evidence-based public health interventions and future preparedness strategies. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.Health & Place 12/2014; 31C:111-119. DOI:10.1016/j.healthplace.2014.11.002 · 2.44 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Background Malaria is endemic in 13 of 64 districts in Bangladesh. About 14 million people are at risk. Some evidence suggests that the prevalence of malaria in Bangladesh has decreased since the the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria started to support the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) in 2007. We did an epidemiological and economic assessment of malaria control in Bangladesh. Methods We obtained annually reported, district-level aggregated malaria case data and information about disbursed funds from the NMCP. We used a Poisson regression model to examine the associations between total malaria, severe malaria, malaria-attributable mortality, and insecticide-treated net coverage. We identifi ed and mapped malaria hotspots using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. We estimated the cost-eff ectiveness of the NMCP by estimating the cost per confi rmed case, cost per treated case, and cost per person of insecticide-treated net coverage. Findings During the study period (from Jan 1, 2008, to Dec 31, 2012) there were 285 731 confi rmed malaria cases. Malaria decreased from 6·2 cases per 1000 population in 2008, to 2·1 cases per 1000 population in 2012. Prevalence of all malaria decreased by 65% (95% CI 65–66), severe malaria decreased by 79% (78–80), and malaria-associated mortality decreased by 91% (83–95). By 2012, there was one insecticide-treated net for every 2·6 individuals (SD 0·20). Districts with more than 0·5 insecticide-treated nets per person had a decrease in prevalence of 21% (95% CI 19–23) for all malaria, 25% (17–32) for severe malaria, and 76% (35–91) for malaria-associated mortality among all age groups. Malaria hotspots remained in the highly endemic districts in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. The cost per diagnosed case was US$0·39 (SD 0·02) and per treated case was $0·51 (0·27); $0·05 (0·04) was invested per person per year for health education and $0·68 (0·30) was spent per person per year for insecticide-treated net coverage. Interpretation Malaria elimination is an achievable prospect in Bangladesh and failure to push for elimination nearly ensures a resurgence of disease. Consistent fi nancing is needed to avoid resurgence and maintain elimination goals. Funding None.The Lancet Global Health 02/2014; 2(2). DOI:10.1016/S2214-109X(13)70176-1