Conference Paper

Competitive Cost Analysis of Alternative Powertrain Technologies.

Conference: International Advanced Mobility Forum 2012 (IAMF)
Source: DLR


This paper examines the cost competitiveness of different electrified propulsion technologies from hybrid cars to full battery electric vehicles in the time horizon 2010 to 2020. The assessment shows that the current TCO gaps for alternative drivetrains will increasingly converge over time mainly driven
by decreasing production cost. However, the cost-efficiency of different powertrain architectures depends highly on the mileage a user expects to drive per year. In the mid-run, hybrid electric vehicles (especially with external charging) will be an attractive option in particular for users with high annual
mileages, who can benefit from the low operating cost of EVs in combination with unlimited driving range. The analysis concludes that there will be a variety of competing drivetrain architectures in the market, which in turn leads to increased risk and complex decision making for the portfolio of automotive OEMs and suppliers.

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Available from: Martin Redelbach,
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    • "Fig. 5 shows an overview of the general structure of the TCO model. For a more detailed description of the model see Redelbach et al. (2012b), Propfe et al. (2012b) and Redelbach et al. (2013). "
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    ABSTRACT: There are ambitious greenhouse gas emission (GHG) targets for the manufacturers of light duty vehicles. To reduce the GHG emissions, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and extended range electric vehicle (EREV) are promising powertrain technologies. However, the battery is still a very critical component due to the high production cost and heavy weight. This paper introduces a holistic approach for the optimization of the battery size of PHEVs and EREVs under German market conditions. The assessment focuses on the heterogeneity across drivers, by analyzing the impact of different driving profiles on the optimal battery setup from total cost of ownership (TCO) perspective. The results show that the battery size has a significant effect on the TCO. For an average German driver (15,000 km/a), battery capacities of 4 kWh (PHEV) and 6 kWh (EREV) would be cost optimal by 2020. However, these values vary strongly with the driving profile of the user. Moreover, the optimal battery size is also affected by external factors, e.g. electricity and fuel prices or battery production cost. Therefore, car manufacturers should develop a modular design for their batteries, which allows adapting the storage capacity to meet the individual customer requirements instead of “one size fits all”.
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