Conference Paper

Competitive Cost Analysis of Alternative Powertrain Technologies.

Conference: International Advanced Mobility Forum 2012 (IAMF)
Source: DLR

ABSTRACT This paper examines the cost competitiveness of different electrified propulsion technologies from hybrid cars to full battery electric vehicles in the time horizon 2010 to 2020. The assessment shows that the current TCO gaps for alternative drivetrains will increasingly converge over time mainly driven
by decreasing production cost. However, the cost-efficiency of different powertrain architectures depends highly on the mileage a user expects to drive per year. In the mid-run, hybrid electric vehicles (especially with external charging) will be an attractive option in particular for users with high annual
mileages, who can benefit from the low operating cost of EVs in combination with unlimited driving range. The analysis concludes that there will be a variety of competing drivetrain architectures in the market, which in turn leads to increased risk and complex decision making for the portfolio of automotive OEMs and suppliers.

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    ABSTRACT: We examine the competitiveness of series hybrid compared to fuel cell, parallel hybrid, and regular cars. We use public domain data to determine efficiency, fuel consumption, total costs of ownership and greenhouse gas emissions resulting from drivetrain choices. The series hybrid drivetrain can be seen both as an alternative to petrol, diesel and parallel hybrid cars, as well as an intermediate stage towards fully electric or fuel cell cars.We calculate the fuel consumption and costs of four diesel-fuelled series hybrid, four plug-in hybrid and four fuel cell car configurations, and compared these to three reference cars. We find that series hybrid cars may reduce fuel consumption by 34–47%, but cost €5000–12,000 more. Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced to 89–103 g CO2 km−1 compared to reference petrol (163 g km−1) and diesel cars (156 g km−1). Series hybrid cars with wheel motors have lower weight and 7–21% lower fuel consumption than those with central electric motors.The fuel cell car remains uncompetitive even if production costs of fuel cells come down by 90%. Plug-in hybrid cars are competitive when driving large distances on electricity, and/or if cost of batteries come down substantially. Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced to 60–69 g CO2 km−1.
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May 16, 2014