Conference Paper

Competitive Cost Analysis of Alternative Powertrain Technologies.

Conference: International Advanced Mobility Forum 2012 (IAMF)
Source: DLR

ABSTRACT This paper examines the cost competitiveness of different electrified propulsion technologies from hybrid cars to full battery electric vehicles in the time horizon 2010 to 2020. The assessment shows that the current TCO gaps for alternative drivetrains will increasingly converge over time mainly driven
by decreasing production cost. However, the cost-efficiency of different powertrain architectures depends highly on the mileage a user expects to drive per year. In the mid-run, hybrid electric vehicles (especially with external charging) will be an attractive option in particular for users with high annual
mileages, who can benefit from the low operating cost of EVs in combination with unlimited driving range. The analysis concludes that there will be a variety of competing drivetrain architectures in the market, which in turn leads to increased risk and complex decision making for the portfolio of automotive OEMs and suppliers.

3 Bookmarks
 · 
317 Views
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the manufacturing costs, retail prices, and lifecycle costs of five hybrid gasoline-electric vehicle types in high-volume production. Updating and major modifications are made to a detailed motor vehicle retail and lifecycle cost spreadsheet model that had previously been used to analyze the costs of conventional vehicles, electric-drive vehicles, and other alternative-fuel vehicles. This cost model is combined with a hybrid vehicle design and performance analysis using the ADVISOR vehicle simulation model. Five hybrid vehicle designs were examined for each vehicle type, for a total of 25 hybrid vehicle cases and a set of five baseline gasoline vehicles for comparison. It is found under various assumptions that combining the advanced package of vehicle improvements with mild vehicle hybridization provides the least-cost the hybrid vehicle option, with lifecycle costs very close to those of the baseline vehicles even using the relatively low historical gasoline price of $1.46 per gallon. However, with recent higher gasoline prices then many of the more fuel efficient, but costlier, hybrid vehicle designs become competitive from a lifecycle cost perspective.
    Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 01/2006;
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Regulators, policy analysts, automobile manufacturers, environmental groups, and others are debating the merits of policies regarding the development and use of battery-powered electric vehicles (BPEVs). At the crux of this debate is lifecycle cost: the annualized initial vehicle cost, plus annual operating and maintenance costs, plus battery replacement costs. To address this issue of cost, we have developed a detailed model of the performance, energy use, manufacturing cost, retail cost, and lifecycle cost of electric vehicles and comparable gasoline internal-combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This effort is an improvement over most previous studies of electric vehicle costs because instead of assuming important parameter values for such variables as vehicle efficiency and battery cost, we model these values in detail. We find that in order for electric vehicles to be cost-competitive with gasoline ICEVs, batteries must have a lower manufacturing cost, and a longer life, than the best lithium-ion and nickel–metal hydride batteries we modeled. We believe that it is most important to reduce the battery manufacturing cost to $100/kWh or less, attain a cycle life of 1200 or more and a calendar life of 12 years or more, and aim for a specific energy of around 100 Wh/kg.
    Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment 01/2001; · 1.29 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: We examine the competitiveness of series hybrid compared to fuel cell, parallel hybrid, and regular cars. We use public domain data to determine efficiency, fuel consumption, total costs of ownership and greenhouse gas emissions resulting from drivetrain choices. The series hybrid drivetrain can be seen both as an alternative to petrol, diesel and parallel hybrid cars, as well as an intermediate stage towards fully electric or fuel cell cars.We calculate the fuel consumption and costs of four diesel-fuelled series hybrid, four plug-in hybrid and four fuel cell car configurations, and compared these to three reference cars. We find that series hybrid cars may reduce fuel consumption by 34–47%, but cost €5000–12,000 more. Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced to 89–103 g CO2 km−1 compared to reference petrol (163 g km−1) and diesel cars (156 g km−1). Series hybrid cars with wheel motors have lower weight and 7–21% lower fuel consumption than those with central electric motors.The fuel cell car remains uncompetitive even if production costs of fuel cells come down by 90%. Plug-in hybrid cars are competitive when driving large distances on electricity, and/or if cost of batteries come down substantially. Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced to 60–69 g CO2 km−1.
    Journal of Power Sources. 01/2010;

Full-text (2 Sources)

Download
113 Downloads
Available from
May 16, 2014