Factors Predictive of 30-Day Postoperative Mortality in HIV/AIDS Patients in the Era of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy
ABSTRACT Factors that predict HIV (human immunodeficiency virus)/AIDS patient postoperative mortality have remained poorly defined.
The primary objective of this study was to identify factors predictive of short-term, postoperative mortality in HIV/AIDS patients. The secondary objective of this study was to develop a scoring system that would predict short-term postoperative mortality in HIV/AIDS patients.
We retrospectively reviewed all HIV/AIDS patients who underwent surgical procedures in British Columbia, Canada, between April 1995 and March 2002. The primary outcome evaluated was 30-day postoperative mortality. Demographic, clinical, and hospitalization-related data were obtained and utilized to predict outcomes using a logistic regression model.
A total of 2305 procedures were carried out on 1322 patients during the study period. Admissions were classified as urgent/emergent for 1311 procedures (57%) and the overall 30-day postoperative mortality was 9.5% (126 deaths). Urgent/emergent admission, older age, prior surgery, a CD4 cell count of ≤ 50 cells/mm, a hemoglobin level ≤ 120 g/L, and a white blood cell count >11 g/L within 90 days before the surgical procedure was predictive of an increased 30-day postoperative mortality in a multivariate model. Using these variables, we formulated the HIV Surgical Mortality Score (HSMS) to obtain the median-estimated probability of postoperative death.
For accurate preoperative mortality risk stratification for HIV/AIDS patients, we have found that several clinical and laboratory variables must be evaluated. If appropriately validated, our proposed HSMS could be utilized to estimate the probability of short-term postoperative death among HIV/AIDS patients.
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ABSTRACT: Objective. The purpose of this study was to develop a new prognostic scoring system for critically ill patients using the simple complete blood cell count (CBC). Methods. CBC measurements in samples from 306 patients in an intensive care unit were conducted with automated analyzers, including levels of neutrophils, lymphocytes, erythrocytes, hemoglobin, and platelets. The time of sampling and the time of death were recorded. Z values were calculated according to the measured values, reference mean values, and standard deviations. The prognostic score was equivalent to the median of the Z value of each of the measured parameters. Results. There was a significant correlation between survival time and neutrophil, lymphocyte, and platelet levels (P < 0.05). Prognostic scores were calculated from the Z value of these three parameters. Survival times decreased as the prognostic score increased. Conclusions. This study suggests that a model that uses levels of neutrophils, lymphocytes, and platelets is potentially useful in the objective evaluation of survival time or disease severity in unselected critically ill patients.02/2013; 2013:105319. DOI:10.1155/2013/105319