The IMPACT prognosis calculator used in patients with severe traumatic brain injury treated with an ICP-targeted therapy
Department of Pharmacology and Clinical Neuroscience, Neurosurgery, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden. Acta Neurochirurgica
(Impact Factor: 1.77).
04/2012; 154(9):1567-73. DOI: 10.1007/s00701-012-1351-z
The prognosis of severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI) is important. The International Mission on Prognosis in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) study group has developed a prediction calculator for the outcome of patients with sTBI, and this has been made available on the World Wide Web. We have studied the use of the IMPACT calculator on sTBI patients treated with an ICP-targeted therapy based on the Lund concept.
The individual clinical data of patients in a prospective sTBI protocol-driven trial of the treatment of sTBI using the Lund concept were entered into the prognosis calculator, and the individual prognosis for each patient was calculated and compared with the actual outcome at 6 months.
The use of the IMPACT calculator led to an overestimation of mortality and of an unfavourable outcome. Compared with the IMPACT database, the absolute risk reduction (ARR) for mortality was 13.6 %. There is a statistically significant probability for the prediction of mortality and unfavourable outcome. A ROC curve analysis shows an area under the curve (AUC) in the Core model for mortality of 0.744 and of unfavourable outcome of 0.731, in the Extended model of 0.751 and 0.721 respectively, and in the Lab model of 0.779 and 0.810 respectively.
The IMPACT prognosis calculator should be used with caution for the prediction of outcome for an individual patient with sTBI treated with an ICP-targeted therapy based on the Lund concept. We conclude that we have to initiate treatment in all patients with blunt sTBI and an initial cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP)≥10 mmHg [corrected]. It seems that the outcome in sTBI patients treated in this fashion is better than would have been expected from the IMPACT prognosis.
Available from: Ewout W Steyerberg
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ABSTRACT: The objective of this report is to describe the design and content of the International Mission for Prognosis And Clinical Trial (IMPACT) database of traumatic brain injury which contains the complete dataset from most clinical trials and organized epidemiologic studies conducted over the past 20 years. This effort, funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, has led to the accumulation thus far of data from 9205 patients with severe and moderate brain injuries from eight randomized placebo controlled trials and three observational studies. Data relevant to the design and analysis of pragmatic Phase III clinical trials, including pre-hospital, admission, and post-resuscitation assessments, information on the acute management, and short- and long-term outcome were merged into a top priority data set (TPDS). The major emphasis during the first phase of study is on information from time of injury to post-resuscitation and outcome at 6 months thereby providing a unique resource for prognostic analysis and for studies aimed at optimizing the design and analysis of Phase III trials in traumatic brain injury.
Journal of Neurotrauma 03/2007; 24(2):239-50. DOI:10.1089/neu.2006.0036 · 3.71 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Based on the Corticosteroid Randomisation after Significant Head Injury (CRASH) trial database, a prognosis calculator has been developed for the prediction of outcome in an individual patient with a head injury. In 47 patients with severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI) prospectively treated using an intracranial pressure (ICP) targeted therapy, the individual prognosis for mortality at 14 days and unfavourable outcome at 6months was calculated and compared with the actual outcome. An overestimation of the risk of mortality and unfavourable outcome was found. The mean risk for mortality and unfavourable outcome were estimated to be 44.6±32.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35.1-54.2%) and 69.3±23.7% (95% CI, 62.3-76.2%). The actual outcome was 4.3% and 42.6% respectively. The absolute risk reduction (ARR) for mortality was 33.1% and for unfavourable outcome 29.8%. A logistic fit for outcome at 6months shows a statistically significant difference (p<0.01). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis shows an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.691. The CRASH prognosis calculator overestimates the risk of mortality and unfavourable outcome in patients with sTBI treated with an ICP-targeted therapy based on the Lund concept. We do not advocate the use of the calculator for treatment decisions in individual patients. We further conclude that patients with blunt sTBI admitted within 8hours of trauma should be treated regardless of their clinical status as long as the initial cerebral perfusion pressure is >10mmHg.
Journal of Clinical Neuroscience 05/2013; 20(7). DOI:10.1016/j.jocn.2012.09.015 · 1.38 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This review covers the main principles of the Lund concept for treatment of severe traumatic brain injury. This is followed by a description of results from clinical studies in which this therapy or a modified version of the therapy has been used. Unlike other guidelines, which are based on meta-analytical approaches, important components of the Lund concept are based on physiological mechanisms for regulation of brain volume and brain perfusion and to reduce transcapillary plasma leakage and the need for plasma volume expanders. There have been 8 non-randomised and 2 randomised outcome studies with the Lund concept or modified versions of the concept. The non-randomised studies indicated that the Lund concept is beneficial for outcome. The 2 randomised studies were small but showed better outcome in the groups of patients treated according to the modified principles of the Lund concept than in the groups given a more conventional treatment.
Neuroscience 06/2014; 283. DOI:10.1016/j.neuroscience.2014.06.039 · 3.36 Impact Factor
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