The Analysis of Residence Histories and Other Longitudinal Panel Data: A Semi-Markov Model Incorporating Time Varying Exogenous Variables
The analysis of residence histories and other longitudinal panel data is fraught with methodological problems. Much recent progress has been made in methods of analysis within discrete time. This paper extends the development of empirically tractable mixed continuous time stochastic models. Analysis of a sample of intra-urban residential histories identifies the effect of tenure type, age of household head, size of household and duration of stay on movement probabilities. Surprisingly, no further variation, as represented by a gamma mixing distribution over a hazard rate parameter, may be identified.
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- "For a first-order Markov model, it would be necessary to condition upon the first outcome and only outcomes for t 2 2 would be modeled. For a renewal process, it would be necessary to condition either upon the duration of stay prior to t = 1 or upon the outcome sequences up to and including the first recorded event, although commencing analysis from the beginning of the process enables us to avoid conditioning (Pickles 1983). In any application, the actual conditioning adopted will thus depend upon the type of feedback included in the model and the data that are available or feasible to collect. "
Geographical Analysis 09/2010; 17(1):1 - 15. DOI:10.1111/j.1538-4632.1985.tb00823.x · 1.05 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the problems of omitted variables in panel data analysis. Results obtained from previous analyses have been shown to be sensitive to the particular parametric forms assumed for the distribution of omitted variables. An alternative non‐parametric approach is described in which the effects of omitted variables enter the model through the non‐central moments of an error term distribution. A reparametrisation ensures that the constraints on the moments of a probability distribution are not violated. The model is applied to data on the residential mobility history of a sample of households in Cardiff, Wales.
Journal of Mathematical Sociology 11/1983; 9(3-3):227-241. DOI:10.1080/0022250X.1983.9989944 · 0.24 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Pickles A. and Rogerson P. (1984) Wage distributions and spatial preferences in competitive job search and migration, Reg. Studies 18, 131--142. Aggregate interstate migration data indicate that the majority of observed flows are from higher to lower wage states, quite contrary to the predictions of human capital theory. It is argued that a search theoretic framework may be used to complement and strengthen human capital theory. Such a framework may then include consideration of the flows of job information and aspects of job competition. A model is proposed for application to longitudinal micro-level data which overcomes a variety of theoretical and inferential problems and which remains within the bounds of empirical application.
Regional Studies 02/1984; 18(2):131-142. DOI:10.1080/09595238400185131 · 1.76 Impact Factor
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