An empirical investigation of trading on asymmetric information and heterogeneous prior beliefs
ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze inter-temporal trading patterns attributable to informed trading. Recent theoretical models posit that heterogeneous prior beliefs provide a source of trading volume in addition to the commonly accepted trading motives of liquidity and asymmetric information. After separating informed from uninformed trading using the estimation procedure of Easley et al. [Journal of Finance 51 (1996) 1405], we test for the presence of trading on heterogeneous beliefs as opposed to asymmetric information. The empirical findings confirm the existence of trading on heterogeneous prior beliefs and generally support the inter-temporal patterns proposed by Wang [Journal of Financial Markets 1 (1998) 321].
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ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the relationship between aggregate stock market trading volume and the serial correlation of daily stock returns. For both stock indexes and individual large stocks, the first-order daily return autocorrelation tends to decline with volume. The paper explains this phenomenon using a model in which risk-averse 'market makers'accommodate buying or selling pressure from 'liquidity'or 'noninformational' traders. Changing expected stock returns reward market makers for playing this role. The model implies that a stock price decline on a high-volume day is more likely than a stock price decline on a low-volume day to be associated with an increase in the expected stock return. Copyright 1993, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 02/1993; 108(4):905-39.
Article: Commonality in liquidity[show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Traditionally and understandably, the microscope of market microstructure has focused on attributes of single assets. Little theoretical attention and virtually no empirical work has been devoted to common determinants of liquidity nor to their empirical manifestation, correlated movements in liquidity. But a wider-angle lens exposes an imposing image of commonality. Quoted spreads, quoted depth, and effective spreads co-move with market- and industry-wide liquidity. After controlling for well-known individual liquidity determinants, such as volatility, volume, and price, common influences remain significant and material. Recognizing the existence of commonality is a key to uncovering some suggestive evidence that inventory risks and asymmetric information both affect intertemporal changes in liquidity.Journal of Financial Economics. 03/1999;
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ABSTRACT: In this research, we investigate the informational role of financial analysts. Using a trade-based empirical technique, we estimate the probability of information-based trading for a sample of NYSE stocks that differ in analyst coverage. We determine how this probability differs across stocks followed by many analysts, and we investigate whether analysts increase or create the flow of information. We also determine the `normal' level of noise trading in each sample stock, thereby giving us the ability to assess the depth of the market for stocks with differing analysts followings. Our most important empirical result is that the number of financial analysts is not a good proxy for information-based trading.Journal of Financial Markets. 01/1998;