Marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission reductions, geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings: an assessment using the POLES model

Institut d'Economie et de Politique de l'Energie, Université Pierre Mendès France, BP 47 38040 Grenoble Cedex 9, France
Energy Policy (Impact Factor: 2.7). 10/1999; 27(10):585-601. DOI: 10.1016/S0301-4215(99)00051-8
Source: RePEc

ABSTRACT The Kyoto Protocol envisage the setting-up of flexibility mechanisms allowing Annex B countries to fulfil their commitments to reducing greenhouse gases with respect for the principle of economic efficiency. The current negotiations relate in particular to the possibility of setting up a system of tradable emissions permits for Annex B countries and also of introducing “ceilings” to trade. This paper analyses the stakes and economic potential of adopting this instrument, both for those countries that made commitments in Kyoto and for developing countries. It is based on a formal approach that allows for a consistent framework of analysis. The emission permit market, is, in fact, simulated on the basis of a reference scenario and of marginal abatement cost curves and estimated by the POLES model; after analysing these marginal abatement cost curves and comparing them with those produced by other models, we explore two different configurations for a competitive market: a market limited to the Annex B countries and a world market. The results produced by the model show that widening the market to include developing countries is more effective than the Annex B market solution; it reduces the cost of implementing Kyoto for OECD countries and at the same time allows the countries of the South to benefit from selling the permits. This research also shows that introducing restrictions on exchanges for Annex B countries could have a counter-productive redistribution effect, with the ethical argument that underlies that particular measure.

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    ABSTRACT: Today, issues such as climate change and increased competition for scarce resources puts pressure on society and firms to transform. Change is not easily managed though, especially not when relating to production or consumption of energy carriers such as district heating or electric power. These systems do not only have strong dynamics internally, but dynamics between multiple technological systems must sometimes be considered to effectively manage response and strategies in relation to change. During the early 1980s, an optimisation model founded on an expert-based approach was developed based on the partial equilibrium model to enable the evaluation of different actions to reach a target. This model — often referred to as marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) or conservation supply curve (CSC) — is used by academia, industry and policymakers globally. The model is applied for causes such as energy conservation and waste management, but also within the climate change context for optimising CO2 reductions and governmental policy. In this context, the model is used by actors such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), International Energy Agency (IEA) and World Bank, and by the consultancy firm McKinsey & Company, who use it extensively in different analysis. This model has many drawbacks in relation to managing interdependencies between different options, but more specifically the metric used for ranking options with a negative marginal cost has a design flaw leading to biased results. As a solution Pareto optimisation has been suggested, but is problematic given the dynamics within and between energy systems. The purpose of this compilation dissertation is to improve the ability for industry and policymakers to effectively manage change and reach set targets. In particular it develops our knowledge of how to account for option interdependency within and between technological systems. Furthermore, the ranking problem relating to expert-based least cost integrated planning is addressed. This dissertation also provides policy and managerial implications relating to the issues of energy conservation, CO2 abatement, and SOx and NOx reduction in relation to the district heating system in Stockholm. Implications are also provided for the interaction with other systems such as the Nordic electric power system.
    05/2015, Degree: PhD in Engineering, Supervisor: Calli Nuur
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    ABSTRACT: CO2 cap-and-trade mechanisms and CO2 emission taxes are becoming increasingly widespread. To assess the impact of a CO2 price, marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) are a commonly used tool by policy makers, providing a direct graphical link between a CO2 price and the expected abatement. However, such MACCs can suffer from issues related to robustness and granularity. This paper focuses on the relation between a CO2 emission cost and CO2 emission reductions in the power sector. The authors present a new methodology that improves the understanding of the relation between a CO2 cost and CO2 abatement. The methodology is based on the insight that CO2 emissions in the power sector are driven by the composition of the conventional power portfolio, the residual load and the generation costs of the conventional units. The methodology addresses both the robustness issue and the granularity issue related to MACCs. The methodology is based on a bottom-up approach, starting from engineering knowledge of the power sector. It offers policy makers a new tool to assess CO2 abatement options. The methodology is applied to the Central Western European power system and illustrates possible interaction effects between, e.g., fuel switching and renewables deployment.
    Energy Policy 05/2015; 80. DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.034 · 2.70 Impact Factor

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