Multi-criteria evaluation of natural gas resources
ABSTRACT Geologically estimated natural gas resources are 500 Tcm. With the advance in geological science increase of estimated resources is expected. Natural gas reserves in 2000 have been proved to be around 165 Tcm. As it is known the reserves are subject to two constraints, namely: capital invested in the exploration and drilling technologies used to discover new reserves. The natural gas scarcity factor, i.e. ratio between available reserves and natural gas consumption, is around 300 years for the last 50 years. The new discovery of natural gas reserves has given rise to a new energy strategy based on natural gas.Natural gas utilization is constantly increasing in the last 50 years. With new technologies for deep drilling, we have come to know that there are enormous gas resources available at relatively low price. These new discoveries together with high demand for the environment saving have introduced a new energy strategy on the world scale.This paper presents an evaluation of the potential natural gas utilization in energy sector. As the criteria in this analysis resource, economic, environmental, social and technological indicators are used. Among the potential options of gas utilization following systems are considered: Gas turbine power plant, combine cycle plant, CHP power plant, steam turbine gas-fired power plant, fuel cells power plant. Multi-criteria method was used for the assessment of potential options with priority given to the Resource, Economic and Social Indicators.Results obtained are presented in graphical form representing priority list of potential options under specific constraints in the priority of natural gas utilization strategy in energy sector.
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ABSTRACT: Sustainability indicators (SIs) are increasingly seen as important tools in the implementation of sustainable development. Numerous suggested SI lists and matrices exist, but a remaining problem is how these diverse SIs are to be integrated into an answer as to whether something is sustainable or not. In some studies of sustainability workers have adopted a quantitative integration approach whereby SIs are given numerical values and integrated mathematically to produce a value for sustainability. In this paper the authors discuss SI integration by drawing upon the results of a six-year research project based in a village in Nigeria. They conclude that an element of'qualitative integration' incorporating value judgements and subjectivity is inevitable with a concept such as sustainability, even if one begins with what may seem like sharp and quantitative SIs. It is argued that SIs are primarily a product of development intervention rather than a desire to understand, and as a result carry with them the desired characteristics, from the donor perspective, of efficiency and accountability. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP EnvironmentSustainable Development. 01/2001; 9(1):1-15.
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ABSTRACT: The paper presents an attempt to select, define and apply a set of sustainability indicators for the energy system assessment. Starting from the general sustainability concept, a set of indicators is defined reflecting specific criteria for the energy system evaluation. Particular attention is devoted to the resource, environment, social and economic criteria. Among these groups of criteria there are individual indicators emphasising respective aspect of the sustainability concept. This approach has its limitation due to the lack of data for serious consideration of the system. But it should be anticipated that these excises might serve as the guidance for the eventual future application. Also, this methodology for the assessment of energy system will become an useful tool only if it proves useful in the engineering practice. The example under consideration is an island with only individual consumption to be satisfied with solar, wind, biomass and oil-fired power plant which represent four options under consideration. The set of indicators is defined and determined with the aim to demonstrate the method of decision making procedure in selecting the option which meet selected indicators numerical values and constrain reflecting the non-numeric information of weighting factor for the determination of general criteria for the selection of appropriate option.Energy Policy. 01/2000;
Article: Limits to growth?[show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: "The paper outlines two future scenarios, one 'pessimistic', the other more 'optimistic'. The first assumes that definite limits to growth exist and that, to the extent that this is still possible, economic policies must be radically altered to prevent the collapse of our ecosystems ('global warming'). If this assessment were correct, then we would probably be doomed. For even if all understood the dangers, it would still seem to be extremely unlikely that the major world powers will exit the market economy, i.e. an economic system premised on perpetual growth, anytime soon. Because such a scenario, while possibly realistic, would be social scientifically sterile (why bother if the world is going bust anyway?), the second scenario construes a somewhat 'friendlier' outlook of the future, one in which technologies become available that render economic growth and ecological sustainability compatible. If this scenario came true, then where would the world be headed in the 21st century? This is the question I wish to pursue here, with special emphasis given to China's rise and its implications for Europe. During the past 27 years, China's economy exhibited an average annual growth of 9.6%. At this rate of growth, a country doubles its income every 7.5 years. That means a child born in China today grows up in a country that is 12 times richer than it was during the youth of his/ her parents. If this growth continues unabated, as economist believe it can for at least several more years, then China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy by 2020. At that point, China's per capita incomes would still be below the OECD average. But the world would already have witnessed the emergence of an economic giant of historically unprecedented proportions. And this giant would still have ample scope for further catching up. Given that China's population is more than double that of the whole West, a China that reached a level of development similar to that of an average OECD member would dwarf any single European economy and, eventually, surpass the economies of North America and Europe combined. This would not only shift the weights in the world economy, but sooner or later also those in world politics, in military strength, and, potentially, in the areas of science and (popular) culture as well. At the present point in time, nobody can say with certainty whether any of this will come true. But if it did, then it would mean nothing less than the end of an era that lasted for about 500 years: the era of uncontested European or, for that matter, Western supremacy. Since China is not the only newly emerging power (as is well known, India and Brazil are rapidly rising too now), such a development would seem to be all the more likely. Thus far, however, Europeans appear to be largely oblivious to it. Remarkably, this is true even of the continent's leading intellectual circles. They had better attend to the matter and prepare their publics." (author's abstract)Die Natur der Gesellschaft: Verhandlungen des 33. Kongresses der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Soziologie in Kassel 2006. Teilbd. 1 u. 2.