Trajectories of kidney function decline in the 2 years before initiation of long-term dialysis.

Department of Medicine, VA Puget Sound Healthcare System and University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98108, USA.
American Journal of Kidney Diseases (Impact Factor: 5.76). 02/2012; 59(4):513-22. DOI: 10.1053/j.ajkd.2011.11.044
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Little is known about patterns of kidney function decline leading up to the initiation of long-term dialysis.
Retrospective cohort study.
5,606 Veterans Affairs patients who initiated long-term dialysis in 2001-2003.
Trajectory of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) during the 2-year period before initiation of long-term dialysis.
Patient characteristics and care practices before and at the time of dialysis initiation and survival after initiation.
We identified 4 distinct trajectories of eGFR during the 2-year period before dialysis initiation: 62.8% of patients had persistently low level of eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (mean eGFR slope, 7.7 ± 4.7 [SD] mL/min/1.73 m2 per year), 24.6% had progressive loss of eGFR from levels of approximately 30-59 ml/min/1.73 m2 (mean eGFR slope, 16.3 ± 7.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year), 9.5% had accelerated loss of eGFR from levels > 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (mean eGFR slope, 32.3 ± 13.4 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year), and 3.1% experienced catastrophic loss of eGFR from levels > 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 within 6 months or less. Patients with steeper eGFR trajectories were more likely to have been hospitalized and have an inpatient diagnosis of acute kidney injury. They were less likely to have received recommended predialysis care and had a higher risk of death in the first year after dialysis initiation.
There is substantial heterogeneity in patterns of kidney function loss leading up to the initiation of long-term dialysis perhaps calling for a more flexible approach toward preparing for end-stage renal disease.

  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: At a recent meeting of international experts on clinical aspects of progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD), an extensive analysis of extant clinical trials was used to develop more effective and economical surrogate markers for CKD outcomes in adults. This article describes the reasons for this undertaking, the methods and conclusions of the meeting, and the relevance of these findings to pediatric nephrology.
    Pediatric Nephrology 11/2014; · 2.88 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: In 2002, the National Kidney Foundation Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (NKF KDOQI) instituted new guidelines that established a novel chronic kidney disease (CKD) staging paradigm. This set of guidelines, since updated, is now very widely accepted around the world. Nevertheless, the authoritative United States Preventative Task Force had in August 2012 acknowledged that we know surprisingly little about whether screening adults with no signs or symptoms of CKD improve health outcomes and that we deserve better information on CKD. More recently, the American Society of Nephrology and the American College of Physicians, two very well respected United States professional physician organizations were strongly at odds coming out with exactly opposite recommendations regarding the need or otherwise for "CKD screening" among the asymptomatic population. In this review, we revisit the various angles and perspectives of these conflicting arguments, raise unanswered questions regarding the validity and veracity of the NKF KDOQI CKD staging model, and raise even more questions about the soundness of its evidence-base. We show clinical evidence, from a Mayo Clinic Health System Renal Unit in Northwestern Wisconsin, United States, of the pitfalls of the current CKD staging model, show the inexactitude and unpredictable vagaries of current CKD prediction models and call for a more cautious and guarded application of CKD staging paradigms in clinical practice. The impacts of acute kidney injury on CKD initiation and CKD propagation and progression, the effects of such phenomenon as the syndrome of late onset renal failure from angiotensin blockade and the syndrome of rapid onset end stage renal disease on CKD initiation, CKD propagation and CKD progression to end stage renal disease all demand further study and analysis. Yet more research on CKD staging, CKD prognostication and CKD predictions is warranted. Finally and most importantly, cognizant of the very serious limitations and drawbacks of the NKF K/DOQI CKD staging model, the need to individualize CKD care, both in terms of patient care and prognostication, cannot be overemphasized.
    World journal of nephrology. 08/2014; 3(3):31-49.
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Greater variability in renal function is associated with mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, few studies have demonstrated the predictive value of renal function variability in relation to renal outcomes. This study investigates the predictive ability of different methods of determining estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) variability for progression to renal replacement therapy (RRT) in CKD patients. This was a prospective observational study, which enrolled 1,862 CKD patients. The renal end point was defined as commencement of RRT. The variability in eGFR was measured by the area under the eGFR curve (AUC)%. A significant improvement in model prediction was based on the -2 log likelihood ratio statistic. During a median 28.7-month follow-up, there were 564 (30.3%) patients receiving RRT. In an adjusted Cox model, a smaller initial eGFR AUC%_12M (P < 0.001), a smaller peak eGFR AUC%_12M (P < 0.001), and a larger negative eGFR slope_12M (P < 0.001) were associated with a higher risk of renal end point. Two calculated formulas: initial eGFR AUC%_12M and eGFR slope_12M were the best predictors. Our results demonstrate that the greater eGFR variability by AUC% is associated with the higher risk of progression to RRT.
    TheScientificWorldJournal. 01/2014; 2014:802037.

Full-text (2 Sources)

Available from
Aug 14, 2014