The cost-effectiveness of cotrimoxazole in people with advanced HIV infection initiating antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa.
ABSTRACT In sub-Saharan Africa, high mortality rates have been reported among patients with advanced HIV infection initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of expanding access to cotrimoxazole (CTX) for persons with HIV in averting mortality during the first 6 months of ART. We also evaluated possible cost savings related to prevention of specific opportunistic infections (OIs).
We developed a decision-analytic model to estimate the incremental cost, deaths averted, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The model compared 2 scenarios for providing CTX and evaluated potential benefits of increased CTX coverage in reducing deaths and cases of OI. The base case scenario represents an estimated current level of CTX coverage among adults initiating ART in low-income countries (65%). The comparator is 97% coverage (excluding only those with contraindications to CTX). We conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters in the model.
Full coverage reduced deaths from 94 to 72 per 1000 patients, averting 22 deaths during the first 6 months of ART compared with the base case. The incremental cost of moving from base case to full coverage was estimated at $3.29 per person on ART and $146.91 per death averted over 6 months. Additional benefits from averted OI cases would likely be realized as well as savings from averted OI treatment costs.
Our findings suggest that expanding CTX coverage is a cost-effective approach to reducing mortality among patients who present with advanced HIV and initiate ART. The expansion of coverage may also yield benefits for OIs.
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ABSTRACT: Decision-making in health care is inevitably undertaken in a context of uncertainty concerning the effectiveness and costs of health care interventions and programmes. One method that has been suggested to represent this uncertainty is the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. This technique, which directly addresses the decision-making problem, has advantages over confidence interval estimation for incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. However, despite these advantages, cost-effectiveness acceptability curves have yet to be widely adopted within the field of economic evaluation of health care technologies. In this paper we consider the relationship between cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and decision-making in health care, suggest the introduction of a new concept more relevant to decision-making, that of the cost-effectiveness frontier, and clarify the use of these techniques when considering decisions involving multiple interventions. We hope that as a result we can encourage the greater use of these techniques.Health Economics 01/2002; 10(8):779-87. · 2.23 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Two-thirds of the world's HIV-infected people live in sub-Saharan Africa, and more than 1.5 million of them die annually. As access to antiretroviral treatment has expanded within the region; early pessimism concerning the delivery of antiretroviral treatment using a large-scale public health approach has, at least in the short term, proved to be broadly unfounded. Immunological and virological responses to ART are similar to responses in patients treated in high-income countries. Despite this, however, early mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa are very high; between 8 and 26% of patients die in the first year of antiretroviral treatment, with most deaths occurring in the first few months. Patients typically access antiretroviral treatment with advanced symptomatic disease, and mortality is strongly associated with baseline CD4 cell count less than 50 cells/mul and WHO stage 4 disease (AIDS). Although data are limited, leading causes of death appear to be tuberculosis, acute sepsis, cryptococcal meningitis, malignancy and wasting syndrome. Mortality rates are likely to depend not only on the care delivered by antiretroviral treatment programmes, but more fundamentally on how advanced disease is at programme enrollment and the quality of preceding healthcare. In addition to improving delivery of antiretroviral treatment and providing it free of charge to the patient, strategies to reduce mortality must include earlier diagnosis of HIV infection, strengthening of longitudinal HIV care and timely initiation of antiretroviral treatment. Health systems delays in antiretroviral treatment initiation must be minimized, especially in patients who present with advanced immunodeficiency.AIDS (London, England) 11/2008; 22(15):1897-908. · 4.91 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Most first-line antiretroviral therapy regimens in Africa include stavudine (d4T), despite the high incidence of toxicities related to it. We estimated the cost and cost-effectiveness of switching from d4T to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in South Africa. A model was developed to estimate the proportion of patients in a hypothetical cohort who experienced d4T- and TDF-related events over the 2 years after antiretroviral therapy initiation. Transition probabilities, event and drug costs, and utility losses were estimated from primary data and the literature. Outcomes included incremental cost, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life year gained, and threshold prices for TDF. After 2 years, 82.5% of the d4T scenario cohort remained on d4T, 16.6% had switched to AZT, 0.8% had died, and 414 events that did not lead to a drug change had occurred. In the TDF scenario, 97.5% of the cohort remained on TDF. At a baseline cost of TDF of $17.00/month, the incremental cost of the TDF scenario was $128/patient/year and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $9007 per quality-adjusted life year gained. The change to TDF would be cost neutral for the government at a price of $6.17/month and highly cost effective at a price of $12.94/month. At a TDF price of $17.00/month, savings on d4T toxicity management will offset roughly 20% of the higher price of TDF. The price of TDF would have to fall substantially to make the change cost neutral for South Africa in budgetary terms, but it would be highly cost effective at a price only slightly less than what is currently available.JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 08/2008; 48(3):334-44. · 4.65 Impact Factor