Article

Development of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) score among young children with respiratory infections in South Africa.

Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
PLoS ONE (Impact Factor: 3.53). 01/2012; 7(1):e27793. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0027793
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Pneumonia is a leading cause of death in children worldwide. A simple clinical score predicting the probability of death in a young child with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) could aid clinicians in case management and provide a standardized severity measure during epidemiologic studies.
We analyzed 4,148 LRTI hospitalizations in children <24 months enrolled in a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine trial in South Africa from 1998-2001, to develop the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC). Using clinical data at admission, a multivariable logistic regression model for mortality was developed and statistically evaluated using bootstrap resampling techniques. Points were assigned to risk factors based on their coefficients in the multivariable model. A child's RISC score is the sum of points for each risk factor present. Separate models were developed for HIV-infected and non-infected children.
Significant risk factors for HIV-infected and non-infected children included low oxygen saturation, chest indrawing, wheezing, and refusal to feed. The models also included age and HIV clinical classification (for HIV-infected children) or weight-for-age (for non-infected children). RISC scores ranged up to 7 points for HIV-infected or 6 points for non-infected children and correlated with probability of death (0-47%, HIV-infected; 0-14%, non-infected). Final models showed good discrimination (area under the ROC curve) and calibration (goodness-of-fit).
The RISC score incorporates a simple set of risk factors that accurately discriminate between young children based on their risk of death from LRTI, and may provide an objective means to quantify severity based on the risk of mortality.

Download full-text

Full-text

Available from: Lyn Finelli, Jul 07, 2015
1 Follower
 · 
147 Views
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Pneumonia is a widespread and common infectious lung disease that causes inflammation, which can lead to reduced oxygenation, shortness of breath, and death. An estimated nearly 1·2 million children younger than 5 years died in 2011 from pneumonia. Most of these deaths occured in developing countries where access to care is limited and interventions that have improved care in developed countries are scarce. Despite substantial increases in our understanding of the clinical syndrome of pneumonia and its aetiologies, its accurate diagnosis is challenging when clinical indicators are relied on, and improves only modestly with addition of laboratory, microbiological, or radiographical tests. Prevention programmes and treatment guidelines have led to impressive reductions in disease, but children remain at risk of misdiagnosis and inadequate treatment. Research to address challenges in the aetiological diagnosis of pneumonia and widespread implementation of treatment interventions beyond vaccines and antibiotics are necessary to mitigate the burden of pneumonia and improve child survival.
    The Lancet Respiratory Medicine 09/2013; 1(7):574-84. DOI:10.1016/S2213-2600(13)70075-4
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: In 2003 the World Health Organization (WHO) convened a working group and published a set of standard methods for studies measuring nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus). The working group recently reconvened under the auspices of the WHO and updated the consensus standard methods. These methods describe the collection, transport and storage of nasopharyngeal samples, as well as provide recommendations for the identification and serotyping of pneumococci using culture and non-culture based approaches. We outline the consensus position of the working group, the evidence supporting this position, areas worthy of future research, and the epidemiological role of carriage studies. Adherence to these methods will reduce variability in the conduct of pneumococcal carriage studies undertaken in the context of pneumococcal vaccine trials, implementation studies, and epidemiology studies more generally so variability in methodology does not confound the interpretation of study findings.
    Vaccine 12/2013; 32(1):165-179. DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.08.062 · 3.49 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Advances in molecular diagnostics have implicated newly-discovered respiratory viruses in the pathogenesis of pneumonia. We aimed to determine the prevalence and clinical characteristics of human bocavirus (hBoV), human rhinovirus (hRV), polyomavirus-WU (WUPyV) and -KI (KIPyV) and human coronaviruses (CoV)-OC43, -NL63, -HKU1 and -229E among children hospitalized with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI). Multiplex real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction was undertaken on archived nasopharyngeal aspirates from HIV-infected and -uninfected children (<2 years age) hospitalized for LRTI, who had been previously investigated for respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus, parainfluenza I-III, adenovirus and influenza A/B. At least one of these viruses were identified in 274 (53.0%) of 517 and in 509 (54.0%) of 943 LRTI-episodes in HIV-infected and -uninfected children, respectively. Human rhinovirus was the most prevalent in HIV-infected (31.7%) and -uninfected children (32.0%), followed by CoV-OC43 (12.2%) and hBoV (9.5%) in HIV-infected; and by hBoV (13.3%) and WUPyV (11.9%) in HIV-uninfected children. Polyomavirus-KI (8.9% vs. 4.8%; p = 0.002) and CoV-OC43 (12.2% vs. 3.6%; p<0.001) were more prevalent in HIV-infected than -uninfected children. Combined with previously-tested viruses, respiratory viruses were identified in 60.9% of HIV-infected and 78.3% of HIV-uninfected children. The newly tested viruses were detected at high frequency in association with other respiratory viruses, including previously-investigated viruses (22.8% in HIV-infected and 28.5% in HIV-uninfected children). We established that combined with previously-investigated viruses, at least one respiratory virus was identified in the majority of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected children hospitalized for LRTI. The high frequency of viral co-infections illustrates the complexities in attributing causality to specific viruses in the aetiology of LRTI and may indicate a synergetic role of viral co-infections in the pathogenesis of childhood LRTI.
    PLoS ONE 02/2014; 9(2):e86448. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0086448 · 3.53 Impact Factor