What Can We Expect from the “Cadillac Tax” in 2018 and Beyond?
ABSTRACT One controversial aspect of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is the provision to impose a 40% excise tax on insurance benefits above a certain threshold, commonly referred to as the "Cadillac tax." We use the Employer Health Benefits Survey, sponsored by the Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust, to examine the number and characteristics of plans that likely will be affected. We estimate that about 16% of plans will incur the tax upon implementation in 2018, while about 75% of plans will incur the tax a decade later due to the indexing of the tax thresholds with the Consumer Price Index. If the Cadillac tax is ultimately implemented as written, we find that it will likely reduce private health care benefits by .7% in 2018 and 3.1% in 2029, and will likely raise about $931 billion in revenue over the ensuing 10-year budget window from 2020 to 2029.
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ABSTRACT: It's often assumed that high-cost health insurance plans--sometimes called "Cadillac" plans--provide rich benefits to plan subscribers. Health reform provisions that treat these plans like luxuries may be misguided. Only 3.7 percent of variation in the cost of family coverage can be explained by benefit design (actuarial value). Benefit design plus plan type (HMO, PPO, POS, or high-deductible plans) explains 6.1 percent of this variation. Industry type and medical costs in the region also play a role. Most variation in premiums, however, remains largely unexplained.Health Affairs 12/2009; 29(1):174-81. DOI:10.1377/hlthaff.2008.0430 · 4.64 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This paper recognizes that compensating differentials are a function of the income tax rate, using this observation to introduce a methodology for estimating compensating differentials with a specific application to the value of a statistical life (VSL). When taxes change, the pre-tax wages of risky jobs should shift relative to the pre-tax wages of safe jobs in a manner proportional to the VSL. This approach controls for fixed effects without using industry-specific changes in risk as a source of identification. The strategy yields VSL estimates between $50 million and $75 million, an order of magnitude higher than the previous literature.Journal of Economic Literature 11/1986; 24(2):629-75. · 9.24 Impact Factor