Conference Paper

Design of a Dynamic Land-Use Change Probability Model Using Spatio-Temporal Transition Matrix

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-12156-2_8 Conference: Computational Science and Its Applications - ICCSA 2010, International Conference, Fukuoka, Japan, March 23-26, 2010, Proceedings, Part I
Source: DBLP


This study aims to analyze land use patterns using time-series satellite images of Seoul Metropolitan Area for the past 30
years, and present a macroscopic model for predicting future land use patterns using Markov Chain based probability model,
and finally examine its applicability to Korea. Several Landsat MSS and TM images were used to acquire land-use change patterns
and dynamic land-use change patterns were categorized from the classified images. Finally, spatio-temporal transition matrices
were constructed from the classified images and applied them into a Markov Chain based model to predict land-use changes for
the study area.

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    ABSTRACT: Modern flood risk management strategies have evolved from flood resistance to a holistic approach incorporating prevention, protection and preparedness with the aim of reducing the likelihood and/or impact of flooding. This evolution has been driven by a trend of increasingly damaging and frequent flood events due to climate change. Populations at risk are required to be an active participant within modern flood risk management plans, resulting in management plan effectiveness being partially dependent on the relevant population’s flood risk perception. Thus, understanding how at-risk populations perceive their own flood risk, and how this compares to the reality of the situation, is a significant component of flood risk management. This paper compares subjective risk perception to an objective measure of risk within a specific case study area, where 305 residents were surveyed on their perception of flood risk. As part of the survey, respondents were asked to delineate the areas of the study area that they perceived would be at risk of inundation during a severe flood event. Using spatial statistical indicators, including Fuzzy Kappa comparison, it was possible to quantify the divergence between subjective and objective measures of risk extent, enabling an assessment of the ‘correctness’ of subjective perceived risk. This novel approach identified significant deviations between risk perception and objective risk measures at an individual level. The paper concludes by considering potential policy implications.
    Natural Hazards 12/2014; 76(3). DOI:10.1007/s11069-014-1559-8 · 1.72 Impact Factor


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