Conference Paper

Combining Static/Dynamic Fault Trees and Event Trees Using Bayesian Networks.

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-75101-4_10 Conference: Computer Safety, Reliability, and Security, 26th International Conference, SAFECOMP 2007, Nuremberg, Germany, September 18-21, 2007.
Source: DBLP

ABSTRACT In this study, an alternative approach for combining Fault Trees (FT) and Event Trees (ET) using capabilities of Bayesian
networks (BN) for dependency analysis is proposed. We focused on treating implicit and explicit weak s-dependencies that may
exist among different static/dynamic FTs related to an ET. In case of combining implicit s-dependent static FTs and ET that
combinatorial approaches fail to get the exact result, the proposed approach is accurate and more efficient than using Markov
Chain (MC) based approaches. In case of combining implicit weak s-dependent dynamic FTs and ET where the effect of implicit
s-dependencies have to be manually inserted into the MC, the proposed approach is more efficient for getting an acceptable

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    ABSTRACT: This paper discusses how non-marked Petri nets can be used to model and analyze event trees where the pivotal (branching) events are dependent and modeled by fault trees. The dependencies may, for example, be caused by shared utilities, shared components, or general common cause failures that are modeled by beta-factor models. These dependencies are cumbersome to take into account when using standard event-/fault tree modeling techniques, and may lead to significant errors in the calculated end-state probabilities of the event tree if they are not properly analyzed. A new approach is proposed in this paper, where the whole event tree is modeled by a non-marked Petri net and where P-invariants, representing the structural properties of the Petri net, are used to obtain the frequency of each end-state of the event tree with dependencies. The new approach is applied to a real example of an event tree analysis of the Strahov highway tunnel in Prague, Czech Republic, including two types of dependencies (shared Programmable Logic Controllers and Common Cause Failures).
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