Discussing the Nature of Objectives-Based Planning: A Critique

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ISSN 2232-2825
November 2011 – 13/št. 3
Znanstveno-strokovna publikacija Slovenske vojske
Contemporary Military Challenges
Sodobni vojaški izzivi
Z n a n j e z m a g u j e

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Znanstveno-strokovna publikacija Slovenske vojske
ISSN 2232-2825
UDK 355.5(479.4)(055)
November 2011 – 13/št. 3
Contemporary Military Challenges
Sodobni vojaški izzivi

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Izdajatelj?
Publisher
Generalštab Slovenske vojske
General Staff of Slovenian Armed Forces
Glavni?urednik?
Executive?Editor
brigadir Branimir Furlan
Odgovorni?urednik?
Managing?Editor
dr. Liliana Brožič
Uredniški?odbor?
Editorial?Board






Sekretarka
Secretary
VVU XIII. razreda dr. Valerija Bernik
VVU XIV. razreda dr. Denis Čaleta
polkovnik dr. Tomaž Kladnik
brigadir dr. Andrej Osterman
dr. Rado Pišot
dr. Jože Plut
dr. Uroš Svete
Iris Žnidarič
Uredniški?svet
Editorial?Council







Prevajanje
Translation



dr. Andrej Anžič
dr. Anton Bebler
dr. Sabine Collmer
dr. Damir Črnčec
generalmajor Ladislav Lipič
dr. Thomas Mockaitis
generalpodpolkovnik dr. Iztok Podbregar
dr. Tibor SzvircsevTresh
Ana Hazler
Christopher McKeating
Nataša Simonovič Bakoš
Mateja Švab
Iris Žnidarič
Lektoriranje?slov.?besedila
Proofreading?

Milena Sevšek Potočnik
Oblikovanje
Design?&?Graphic?
Skupina Opus Design
Tisk
Print Tiskarna Collegium graphicum, d. o. o.
Naklada
Edition
500 izvodov/copies
Revija?je?dostopna?
na?spletni?strani
Publication?web?page


E-naslov?urednice
Managing?Editor
e-mail?address
http://www.slovenskavojska.si/publikacije/
sodobni-vojaski-izzivi/
http://www.slovenskavojska.si/en/publications/
contemporary-military-challenges/
liliana.brozic@mors.si
Prispevki, objavljeni v Sodobnih vojaških izzivih, niso uradno stališče
Slovenske vojske niti organov, iz katerih so avtorji prispevkov.
Publikacija?je?uvrščena?v?bibliografski?zbirki?podatkov?COBISS.SI?in?
PAIS?International.
Articles, published in the Contemporary Military Challenges do not
reflect the official viewpoint of the Slovenian Armed Forces nor the
bodies in which the authors of articles are employed.
The?publication?is?indexed?in?bibliography?databases?COBISS.SI?and?
PAIS?International.

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Hibridne grožnje
Hybrid Threats
»We all live under the same sky,
but do not all have the same horizon.«
Konrad Adenauer
»Vsi živimo pod istim nebom,
pa nimamo istega horizonta.«
Konrad Adenauer

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RECENZENTI/REFEREES
Dr. Denis Čaleta
Dr. Damir Črnčec
Dr. Tomaž Kladnik
Dr. Igor Kotnik
Dr. Matej Kovačič
Dr. Jure Medič
Dr. Anže Rode
Dr. Uroš Svete
Primož Šavc

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VSEBINA
CONTENTS
7
Liliana Brožič

UVODNIK
EDITORIAL
11
Ján Spišák HIBRIDNE GROŽNJE IN RAZVOJ NOVEGA NATOVEGA SPLOŠNEGA
KONCEPTA
HYBRID THREATS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW NATO
OVERARCHING CONCEPT
21
Uroš Svete, VARNOSTNA RELEVANTNOST KIBERNETSKEGA PROSTORA
Anja Kolak V OBDOBJU WEB 2.0
CYBERSPACE SECURITY RELEVANCE IN THE TIME OF WEB 2.0
41
Denis Čaleta, KIBERNETSKA VARNOST V DRUŽBI IN DELOVANJE KRITIČNE
Gorazd Rolih INFRASTRUKTURE – ANALIZA STANJA NA OBRAMBNEM PODROČJU
V REPUBLIKI SLOVENIJI
CYBER SECURITY IN THE OPERATION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE –
AN ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN THE FIELD OF SLOVENIAN DEFENCE
61
Maja Bolle INFORMACIJSKA VARNOST IN ODPRTOKODNA PROGRAMSKA OPREMA
INFORMATION SECURITY AND OPEN SOURCE SOFTWARE
79
Anže Rode, ENOTA ZA SPECIALNO DELOVANJE SLOVENSKE VOJSKE –
Kristian Bernšak, ODGOVOR NA SODOBNE IZZIVE
Bojan Langerholc THE SAF SPECIAL OPERATIONS UNIT – RESPONSE TO MODERN CHALLENGES

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95
Zoltán Jobbágy RAZPRAVA O ZNAČAJU CILJNO USMERJENEGA NAČRTOVANJA: KRITIKA
László Szegő DISCUSSING THE NATURE OF OBJECTIVES-BASED PLANNING: A CRITIQUE
105
AVTORJI
AUTHORS
113


NAVODILA AVTORJEM ZA OBLIKOVANJE PRISPEVKOV
INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE AUTHORS OF PAPERS

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UVODNIk
Liliana Brožič
Letošnja tretja številka Sodobnih vojaških izzivov je v celoti v angleškem jeziku, s
čimer sledimo programu dela uredniškega odbora in standardom kakovostnih znan-
stveno-strokovnih publikacij, tako v Republiki Sloveniji kot v širšem mednarodnem
prostoru.
Številko smo posvetili hibridnim grožnjam. Definicijo hibridnih groženj in njihov
razvoj pojasnjuje Jan Spišák v svojem članku o hibridnih grožnjah in razvoju
novega Natovega splošnega koncepta. V njem pojasni tudi razumevanje hibridnih
groženj v zavezništvu in načine odzivanja nanje.
Med hibridne grožnje spadajo tudi tako imenovane kibernetske grožnje, ki so vedno
bolj domišljene, organizirane in povzročajo vedno večjo škodo državam, podjetjem,
infrastrukturi in logistiki, tako v varnostnem kot finančnem smislu.
Aktualnim težnjam kibernetskega prostora v obdobju WEB 2.0 sta se posvetila Uroš
Svete in Anja Kolak, in sicer s poudarkom na primeru WikiLeaks, v katerem je
posebej izražen razvoj druge generacije svetovnega spleta, torej generacije, ki jo ne-
posredno oblikujejo uporabniki sami in lahko tako tudi ogrozijo nacionalno varnost
posamezne države ali zavezništva.
O pomembnosti in organiziranosti kibernetske varnosti v povezavi s kritično infra-
strukturo pišeta Denis Čaleta in Gorazd Rolih. Predstavljata urejenost področja v
Evropski uniji, Natu in na nacionalni ravni ter opozarjata na nekatere pomanjkljivo-
sti, ki bi jih bilo treba še urediti.
Informacijsko varnost in njen pomen za javno upravo predstavlja Maja Bolle na
primeru primerjave odprto- in zaprtokodne programske opreme. Seznani nas z
njuno zgodovino in načinom delovanja ter prednostmi in slabostmi pri izbiri ene

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izmed njiju. Seveda pa izbira ene ali druge prinaša številne izzive, o katerih avtorica
razpravlja.
Avtorji Anže Rode, Kristian Beršnak in Bojan Langerholc predstavljajo Enoto
za specialno delovanje Slovenske vojske ter njeno vpetost v širši nacionalni in nad-
nacionalni varnostni kontekst, s poudarkom na morebitnem delovanju v kriznih
razmerah in protiterorističnih aktivnostih.
Kritični pogled na sicer že splošno sprejeto teorijo Karla von Clausewitza sta pripra-
vila Zoltán Jobbágy in László Szegő. Preverjala sta jo na najnovejših spoznanjih na
primeru Iraka in Afganistana, bralcem pa predstavljata svoja razmišljanja.
Članki slovenskih avtorjev, ki so bili napisani v slovenskem jeziku in pozneje
prevedeni v angleški jezik ter tako tudi natisnjeni, so slovenskim bralcem na voljo
v elektronski obliki na spletnih straneh Sodobnih vojaških izzivov, v posebnem
dodatku na koncu publikacije.
Tako poskušamo ob upoštevanju racionalne rabe virov in kakovostnih kazalcev, ki
veljajo za periodične znanstveno-strokovne publikacije, doseči čim širši krog bralcev
in morebitnih piscev.
Vse naše bralce prijazno vabimo k pisanju člankov!
Liliana Brožič

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EDITORIAL
Liliana Brožič
This year’s third issue of Contemporary Military Challenges is entirely published in
English, which is in line with the Editorial Board’s work programme and standards
for scientific and professional publications in the Republic of Slovenia as well as
widely abroad.
The present issue is dedicated to hybrid threats. The definition of hybrid threats and
its development is explained by Jan Spišák in his article on hybrid threats and the
development of NATO’s new Overarching Concept in which he explains the under-
standing of hybrid threats within the Alliance and the ways of responding to them.
Hybrid threats also include the so-called cyber threats, which are becoming increa-
singly well though out, organised and causing more and more damage to the states,
companies, infrastructure and logistics in a security and financial sense.
Current cyber space trends in the WEB 2.0. age have been dealt with by Uroš
Svete and Anja Kolak who put emphasis on the WikiLeaks case, highlighting the
development of the second generation of World Wide Web, which can be directly
modified by the users themselves, thereby threatening national security of individual
states or the Alliance.
The importance and organisation of cyber security in relation to critical infrastruc-
ture is discussed by Denis Čaleta and Gorazd Rolih. They present the way this
domain is regulated within the European Union, NATO and at the national level, as
well as evoke certain deficiencies which are still to be dealt with.
Information security and its importance to the public administration are presented
by Maja Bolle using the example of open-source and proprietary software. She
acquaints us with their history and the way of functioning as well as the advantages

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and disadvantages of opting for one of them. Of course, choosing either of them
brings about numerous challenges, also discussed by the author.
Anže Rode, Kristian Beršnak and Bojan Langerholc present the Slovenian Armed
Forces Special Operations Unit and its role within a wide national and transnational
security context, putting emphasis on the potential crisis operations and possible co-
unter-terrorism activities.
Zoltán Jobbágy and László Szegő have prepared a critical view of a generally well-
-accepted theory by Karl von Clausewitz. It has been tested with regard to the latest
establishments based on the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan, while the authors also
provided their personal reflections.
Original versions of the articles by Slovenian authors, which have been initially
written in Slovene and later translated into English, are available in electronic
version on the web page of Contemporary Military Challenges in a special appendix
at the end of the publication.
This is our way of trying to reach out to a wide range of readers and potential future
writers while respecting rational use of resources and quality indicators applicable to
scientific and professional publications.
All our readers are kindly invited to write articles for our publication!
Liliana Brožič

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HIBRIDNE?GROŽNJE?IN?RAZVOJ?NOVEGA?
NATOVEGA?SPLOŠNEGA?kONCEPTA
HYBRID?THREATS?AND?THE?DEVELOPMENT?
OF?THE?NEW?NATO?OVERARCHING?CONCEPT
Strokovni članek
Professional article
Prispevek obravnava vidike novih varnostnih izzivov, ki jih vojaški teoretiki in avtorji
varnostnih in obrambno-strateških dokumentov imenujejo hibridne grožnje. Trenutno
so precejšnji izziv za zavezništvo in njegove interese. Hibridne grožnje vključujejo
nasprotnike, vključno z državami, »malopridnimi« državami, nedržavnimi akterji ali
terorističnimi organizacijami, ki lahko za doseganje svojih ciljev uporabijo različne
kombinacije ukrepov v vse manj omejenem operativnem okolju. Hibridne grožnje
so lahko kombinacija vseh vidikov vojskovanja ter skupek dejavnosti več nasprot-
nikov. Izkušnje iz trenutnih operacij so pokazale, da lahko nasprotniki zdaj izvajajo
sovražne ukrepe s pomočjo številnih konvencionalnih ali nekonvencionalnih sredstev,
metod in postopkov ter so pri tem uspešni, tudi če delujejo proti Natovim silam, ki so
tehnološko in vojaško bolje podprte. Zavedanje razsežnosti in kompleksnosti prihod-
njih groženj je zahtevalo razvoj splošnega sklepnega koncepta (Capstone Concept)
za prispevek Nata k zoperstavljanju hibridnim grožnjam (Military Contribution to
Countering Hybrid Threats – MCCHT). Ta koncept obravnava posebne izzive, ki jih
predstavljajo trenutne in prihodnje grožnje, ter pojasnjuje, zakaj lahko ti izzivi od
Nata zahtevajo, da prilagodi svoje strategijo, strukturo in zmogljivosti za naslednjih
dvajset let.
Hibridne grožnje, hibridno vojskovanje, varnostni izzivi, koncept.
This article deals with aspects of newly emerging security challenges that military
theoreticians and authors of security and defense strategic documents name
‘Hybrid Threats’. They currently present a significant challenge for the Alliance
and its interests. Hybrid Threats involve adversaries (including states, rogue states,
non-state actors or terrorist organizations) that may employ a combination of actions
in an increasingly unconstrained operating environment in order to achieve their
aims. Hybrid Threats may consist of a combination of every aspect of warfare and
Povzetek
Ključne
besede
Abstract
Ján Spišák

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compound the activities of multiple adversaries. Experience from current operations
has demonstrated that adversaries can now conduct hostile actions through a broad
array of conventional or non-conventional means, methods and procedures, having
a favorable outcome against a NATO force that is technologically and militarily
superior. Cognition of the scale and complexity of future threats has demanded a de-
velopment of an overarching Capstone Concept1 for the NATO Military Contribution
to Countering Hybrid Threats (MCCHT). This Concept articulates the unique chal-
lenges posed by current and future Hybrid Threats and explains why these chal-
lenges may require NATO to adapt its strategy, structure and capabilities for the next
twenty years.
Hybrid threats, hybrid warfare, security challenges, concept.
Hybrid Threats are those posed by adversaries, with the ability to simultaneous-
ly employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their
objectives.2
Perhaps no country in NATO has dedicated so much effort in facing global security
challenges as intensively as the United States. Representatives of the security
community indicated an increase of various threats, which include traditional,
irregular, terrorist or disruptive threats or challenges facing the state. This generates
an unusual dilemma for today‘s military planners, whether to abandon the idea of
preparing for war against state actors with conventional capabilities, or re-orienting
for more likely scenarios of conflict with a non-state adversary using asymmetric op-
erations and ‘irregular tactics’. At the same time they also recognize that both modes
of actions can not exist separately.
A number of military theoreticians and strategists seek to discover and justify the
existence of new forms of warfare, merging combined features of various types
of military and non-military, combat and non-combat activities. They assume that
future warfare will be hidden in the synergies, combining all the ways, methods
and styles, which have been used to date. Their thoughts are turning to the „hybrid
threats, „hybrid wars“ and „hybrid warfare“ and show that the combination will
be used specifically against the weaknesses of their opponents. The particular chal-
lenges that were presented by separate philosophies of conventional enemies, terror-
ists or insurgents, converge in expectations of a collision with opponents that use all
possible forms of violent actions. A part of the problem may even be criminal activi-
ties that destabilize local governments and/or encourage insurgents and foreign mer-
cenaries, providing them with resources and assets, or undermining the authority of
the host country and the legitimacy of its representatives.
1 MC 0583: A Capstone Concept is an overarching concept with the purpose of leading force development and
employment primarily by providing a broad description of how to operate across significant portions of the
complete spectrum of operations and describing what is required to meet strategic objectives.
2 NATO agreed (31 May 10) see ref.: Internet sources [1]
Key words
Introduction
Ján Spišák

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Hybrid Threats that sooner or later will be visible in hybrid warfare include, according
to these theoreticians,3 a whole spectrum of different aspects, including the capabili-
ties of conventional, asymmetric, insurgent and terrorist acts and criminal activities.
Hybrid wars can be waged between states and various non-state actors. They can be
kept by separate units or even a single unit, operationally integrated and tactically
incorporated and coordinated within the same operational area.
1 UNDERSTANDING OF MODERN THREATS
The origin of the term “hybrid wars” is often attributed to various authors. According
to the one of the architects of the counterinsurgency doctrine, Dave Kilcullen, the
first author who used the term “hybrid wars” was Erin Simpson who, during the
conference for the Midwest Political Science Association (Chicago, April 2005)
presented a paper “Thinking about modern conflict: Hybrid wars, strategy, and war
aims”. According to Kilcullen, Simpson is the originator of this “extraordinarily
valuable conceptual framework” (Kilcullen, 2008).4
Others offer Frank Hoffman, for his memoir “Conflict in the 21st Century: The
Rise of Hybrid Wars.” He states, however, that the credit for the first use of the
term ‘hybrid’ belongs to R. Walker who, in his unpublished doctoral thesis at the
Naval Post Graduate School in Monterey, defined the Marine Expeditionary Unit as
a “hybrid force for Hybrid Wars” back in 1998 (Hoffman, 2005).
Notwithstanding these and similar conjectures, one of the first provoking and
certainly most inspirational thoughts inflaming the debate on the issue of hybrid
wars, were those of General James N. Mattis and F. Hoffman, published in the U.S.
Naval Institute Proceedings with title: “Future Warfare: The Rise of Hybrid Wars.”.
Mattis in his speech pointed out to the experience from Afghanistan and Iraq, high-
lighting the unexpected combination of technologies and methods of unorthodox
tactical activities, that an unconventional enemy could use in the future. According
to Mattis, so-called irregular challenges and methods of terrorism, fighting insur-
gents, unrestricted warfare, guerrilla wars or coercion by narco-criminals, will
mostly likely represent the threats of the future (Mattis, Hoffman, 2005).
3 Beside authors cited in references see e.g. BIDDLE, Stephen., FRIEDMAN, Jeffrey A., 2008. The 2006 Lebanon
Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy. Strategic Studies Institute,
U. S. Army War College, Carlisle, ISBN 1-58487-362-0. EVANS, Michael., 2003. From Kadesh to Kandahar:
Military Theory and the Future of War. Naval War College Review. SIMPSON, Erin., 2005. Thinking about
Modern Conflict: Hybrid Wars, Strategy, and War Aims. The Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago,
Illinois. KILCULLEN, David., 2009. Accidental Guerrilla, New York: Oxford University Press. HOFFMAN, G.
Frank., 2009. Hybrid Threats: Reconceptualizing the Evolving Character of Modern Conflict. Washington, DC:
Institute for National Strategic Studies, Strategic Forum 240.
4 Based on D. Kilcullen´s blogging with Simpson in February 2008, regarding to paper, Thinking about modern
conflict: Hybrid wars, strategy, and war aims.
HYBRID THREATS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW NATO OVERARCHING CONCEPT