High agreement but low kappa: I. The problems of two paradoxes.
ABSTRACT In a fourfold table showing binary agreement of two observers, the observed proportion of agreement, p0, can be paradoxically altered by the chance-corrected ratio that creates kappa as an index of concordance. In one paradox, a high value of p0 can be drastically lowered by a substantial imbalance in the table's marginal totals either vertically or horizontally. In the second pardox, kappa will be higher with an asymmetrical rather than symmetrical imbalanced in marginal totals, and with imperfect rather than perfect symmetry in the imbalance. An adjustment that substitutes kappa max for kappa does not repair either problem, and seems to make the second one worse.
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ABSTRACT: Background Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) are increasingly used in studies in healthcare research but there is still little empirical evidence for the predictive value of these hypothetical situations in similar real life circumstances. The aim of this paper is to compare the stated preferences in a DCE and the accompanying questionnaire with the revealed preferences of young parents who have to decide whether to vaccinate their new born child against hepatitis B. Methods A DCE asking parents to decide in which scenario they would be more inclined to vaccinate their child against hepatitis B. The stated preference was estimated by comparing the per respondent utility of the most realistic scenario in which parents could choose to vaccinate their child against hepatitis B, with the utility of the opt-out, based on the mixed logit model from the DCE. This stated preference was compared with the actual behaviour of the parents concerning the vaccination of their new born child. Results In 80% of the respondents the stated and revealed preferences corresponded. The positive predictive value is 85% but the negative predictive value is 26%. Conclusions The predictive value of the DCE in this study is satisfactory for predicting the positive choice but not for predicting the negative choice. However, the behaviour in this study is exceptional in the sense that most people chose to vaccinate. Future studies should focus on behaviours with a larger variance in the population. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0010-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.BMC Medical Research Methodology 03/2015; 15(1). DOI:10.1186/s12874-015-0010-5 · 2.17 Impact Factor
Conference Paper: Learning whom to trust with MACENAACL; 01/2013
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ABSTRACT: The prevalence of infection by Anaplasma spp. (including Anaplasma phagocytophilum) was determined using blood smear microscopy and PCR through screening of small ruminant blood samples collected from seven regions of Morocco. Co-infections of Anaplasma spp., Babesia spp, Theileria spp. and Mycoplasma spp. were investigated and risk factors for Anaplasma spp. infection assessed. A total of 422 small ruminant blood samples were randomly collected from 70 flocks. Individual animal (breed, age, tick burden and previous treatment) and flock data (GPS coordinate of farm, size of flock and livestock production system) were collected. Upon examination of blood smears, 375 blood samples (88.9%) were found to contain Anaplasma-like erythrocytic inclusion bodies. Upon screening with a large spectrum PCR targeting the Anaplasma 16S rRNA region, 303 (71%) samples were found to be positive. All 303 samples screened with the A. phagocytophilum-specific PCR, which targets the msp2 region, were found to be negative. Differences in prevalence were found to be statistically significant with regard to region, altitude, flock size, livestock production system, grazing system, presence of clinical cases and application of tick and tick-borne diseases prophylactic measures. Kappa analysis revealed a poor concordance between microscopy and PCR (k = 0.14). Agreement with PCR is improved by considering microscopy and packed cell volume (PCV) in parallel. The prevalence of double infections was found to be 1.7, 2.5 and 24% for Anaplasma-Babesia, Anaplasma-Mycoplasma and Anaplasma-Theileria, respectively. Co-infection with three or more haemoparasites was found in 1.6% of animals examined. In conclusion, we demonstrate the high burden of anaplasmosis in small ruminants in Morocco and the high prevalence of co-infections of tick-borne diseases. There is an urgent need to improve the control of this neglected group of diseases. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 04/2015; DOI:10.1111/tbed.12366 · 3.12 Impact Factor