Ulcerative colitis in remission: it is possible to predict the risk of relapse?
ABSTRACT A series of anamnestic, clinical, endoscopic and histologic parameters was evaluated in 64 patients with ulcerative colitis in remission to assess whether any of these had predictive value of relapse. All patients with quiescent disease were followed for at least 6 months. The statistical analysis was carried out by means of likelihood chi 2 test, receiver operating characteristic curve, Youden index and stepwise logistic regression. Eighteen patients out of 64 (28%) had a relapse, in a mean period of 9 months after the beginning of the study. The findings of our study suggest that only three factors were useful in selecting a subpopulation with a higher risk of recurrence: (a) a fiber-poor diet; (b) a number of previous episodes of relapse higher than 10, and (c) the presence of extraintestinal manifestations.
SourceAvailable from: Takayuki Yamamoto[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: This prospective study was to evaluate the significance of fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin for the prediction of ulcerative colitis (UC) relapse. Eighty UC patients in remission for ≥3 months on mesalamine as maintenance therapy were included. At entry, stool samples were collected for the measurement of calprotectin and lactoferrin. All patients were followed up for the following 12 months. To identify predictive factors for relapse, time-dependent analyses using the Kaplan-Meier graphs and Cox's proportional hazard model were applied. During the 12 months, 21 patients relapsed. Mean calprotectin and lactoferrin levels were significantly higher in patients with relapse than those in remission (calprotectin-173.7 vs 135.5 μg/g, P = 0.02; lactoferrin-165.1 vs 130.7 μg/g, P = 0.03). A cutoff value of 170 μg/g for calprotectin had a sensitivity of 76 % and a specificity of 76 % to predict relapse, while a cutoff value of 140 μg/g for lactoferrin had a sensitivity of 67 % and a specificity of 68 %. In a multivariate analysis, calprotectin (≥170 μg/g) was a predictor of relapse (hazard ratio, 7.23; P = 0.002). None of the following parameters were significantly associated with relapse: age, gender, duration of UC, number of UC episode, severity of the previous episode, extent of UC, extraintestinal manifestation, and lactoferrin level. Fecal calprotectin showed a higher sensitivity and specificity than fecal lactoferrin for predicting UC relapse. Fecal calprotectin level appeared to be a significant predictor of relapse in patients with quiescent UC on mesalamine as maintenance therapy.International Journal of Colorectal Disease 12/2013; 29(4). DOI:10.1007/s00384-013-1817-3 · 2.42 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Introduction: The clinical course of ulcerative colitis (UC) ranges from a mild course with prolonged periods of remission to severe disease requiring long-term immunosuppression for disease control. There is limited data on the predictors of need for immunosuppression at presentation. Objective: The aim was to evaluate clinical, endoscopic and histopathological parameters at presentation in patients with UC that predict the need for long-term immunosuppressive therapy. Materials and Methods: We studied 81 patients (males; 40; mean age 38.69 ± 12.90 years) with UC (41 prospectively and 40 retrospectively). The clinical presentation, duration, extra-intestinal features, extent of disease, haematological and biochemical features, histology and outcome (drugs, surgery, and mortality) were recorded and analyzed. Subgroup analysis was done after dividing the patients into two groups depending upon whether they needed long term immunosuppressants or not. Results: The presenting symptoms were bloody stools (100%), mucus in stools (98.8%), abdominal pain (35.8%), anorectal pain (14.8%) and extra-intestinal symptoms (4.9%). Of these 81 patients, 7 (8.6%) patients required surgery and 2 (2.4%) patients died. Long term immunosuppressants were used in 19 patients (Azathioprine 16, Mycophenolate mofetil 2 and Tacrolimus 1). The patients who received immunosuppressants had a higher prevalence of pancolitis (47.4% vs. 16.1%, P = 0.005). Other clinical, hematological and histological parameters such as inflammatory grade, chronicity grade, cellular infiltrates, submucosal fibrosis, Paneth cell metaplasia, and the presence of neuronal cells were similar in the two groups. Conclusion: Of the clinical, biochemical, endoscopic and histological features at presentation only the presence of pancolitis predicts the need for long term immunosuppressants in ulcerative colitis.01/2014; 5(1):13-17. DOI:10.4103/0976-5042.141927