Evaluating the accuracy of using population pharmacokinetic data to predict plasma concentrations of alfentanil.
ABSTRACT A major reason for quantitating the relationship of drug dose to plasma concentration is to design optimal drug administration schemes (i.e., those that can achieve desired target concentrations of a drug). Recently, the authors completed a population pharmacokinetic analysis of the new opioid alfentanil using the computer program NONMEM. This analysis quantified the effects of age, weight, and sex on disposition of alfentanil in 45 patients, and determined the average pharmacokinetic profile of the drug for the group. Using these population pharmacokinetic parameters, one can predict (estimate) the plasma concentration time course of alfentanil for any given dosage scheme. The present study evaluated the accuracy with which one could use these population data to predict plasma concentrations of alfentanil in a different group of surgical patients given iv boluses and a variable-rate infusion of alfentanil for induction and maintenance of anesthesia for abdominal and superficial surgery. A total of 597 plasma concentrations of alfentanil were measured for 19 patients. For each measured concentration, we used the population pharmacokinetic parameters obtained previously with NONMEM to calculate a predicted concentration. Accuracy and precision of the prediction were assessed by the mean bias of the prediction and by the mean absolute prediction error, respectively. The mean bias (+/- SE) (systematic over- or underprediction) was -7.9 +/- 5.2%. The mean absolute error (+/- SE), a measure of the precision, was 22.3 +/- 2.9%. Therefore, the authors' previously described population pharmacokinetic parameters for alfentanil appear to be "robust," and can be used to design computerized schemes for administration of alfentanil for general surgery.
Article: Population based pharmacokinetic analysis: why do we need it; what is it; and what has it told us about anaesthetics?BJA British Journal of Anaesthesia 05/1998; 80(4):488-501. · 4.24 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Usable real-time displays of intravenous anesthetic concentrations and effects could significantly enhance intraoperative clinical decision-making. Pharmacokinetic models are available to estimate past, present, and future drug effect-site concentrations, and pharmacodynamic models are available to predict the drug's associated physiologic effects. An interdisciplinary research team (bioengineering, architecture, anesthesiology, computer engineering, and cognitive psychology) developed a graphic display that presents the real-time effect-site concentrations, normalized to the drugs' EC(95), of intravenous drugs. Graphical metaphors were created to show the drugs' pharmacodynamics. To evaluate the effect of the display on the management of total intravenous anesthesia, 15 anesthesiologists participated in a computer-based simulation study. The participants cared for patients during two experimental conditions: with and without the drug display. With the drug display, clinicians administered more bolus doses of remifentanil during anesthesia maintenance. There was a significantly lower variation in the predicted effect-site concentrations for remifentanil and propofol, and effect-site concentrations were maintained closer to the drugs' EC(95). There was no significant difference in the simulated patient heart rate and blood pressure with respect to experimental condition. The perceived performance for the participants was increased with the drug display, whereas mental demand, effort, and frustration level were reduced. In a post-simulation questionnaire, participants rated the display to be a useful addition to anesthesia monitoring. The drug display altered simulated clinical practice. These results, which will inform the next iteration of designs and evaluations, suggest promise for this approach to drug data visualization.Anesthesiology 04/2002; 96(3):565-75. · 5.36 Impact Factor