Predictors of readmission among elderly survivors of admission with heart failure

Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, the Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
American Heart Journal (Impact Factor: 4.46). 01/2000; 139(1 Pt 1):72-7. DOI: 10.1016/S0002-8703(00)90311-9
Source: PubMed


Readmission rates for patients discharged with heart failure approach 50% within 6 months. Identifying factors to predict risk of readmission in these patients could help clinicians focus resource-intensive disease management efforts on the high-risk patients.
The study sample included patients 65 years of age or older with a principal discharge diagnosis of heart failure who were admitted to 18 Connecticut hospitals in 1994 and 1995. We obtained patient and clinical data from medical record review. We determined outcomes within 6 months after discharge, including all-cause readmission, heart failure-related readmission, and death, from the Medicare administrative database. We evaluated 2176 patients, including 1129 in the derivation cohort and 1047 in the validation cohort.
Of 32 patient and clinical factors examined, 4 were found to be significantly associated with readmission in a multivariate model. They were prior admission within 1 year, prior heart failure, diabetes, and creatinine level >2.5 mg/dL at discharge. The event rates according to number of risk predictors were similar in the derivation and the validation sets for all outcomes. In the validation cohort, rates for all-cause readmission and combined readmission or death were 26% and 31% in patients with no risk predictors, 48% and 54% in patients with 1 or 2 risk predictors, and 59% and 65% in patients with 3 or all risk predictors.
Few patient and clinical factors predict readmission within 6 months after discharge in elderly patients with heart failure. Although we were unable to identify a group of patients at very low risk, a group of high-risk patients were identified for whom resource-intensive interventions designed to improve outcomes may be justified.

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    • "A modified Cox's proportional hazards model that included death as a competing risk was used to develop the multivariate prediction model, using the methods suggested by Therneau [24]. Data items, such as age and comorbidities, identified from previous literature and surveys of experts in CHF were forced into all models [11] [13]. Potential effect modification was assessed using interaction terms (none were significant at a 0.10 level). "
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    ABSTRACT: Frequent readmissions are a hallmark of chronic heart failure (CHF). We sought to develop an absolute risk prediction model for unplanned cardiovascular readmissions following hospitalisation for CHF. An inception cohort was obtained from the WHICH? trial, a prospective, multi-centre randomised controlled trial which was a head-to-head comparison of the efficacy of a home-based intervention versus clinic-based intervention for adults with CHF. A Cox's proportional hazards model (taking into account the competing risk of death) was used to develop a prediction model. Bootstrap methods were used to identify factors for the final model. Based on these data a nomogram was developed. Of the 280 participants in the WHICH? trial 37 (13%) were readmitted for a cardiovascular event (including CHF) within 28 days, and a further 149 (53%) were readmitted within 18 months for a cardiovascular event. In the proposed competing risk model, factors associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation for CHF were: age (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.90-1.26) for each 10-year increase in age; living alone (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.74-1.59); those with a sedentary lifestyle (HR 1.44, 95% CI, 0.92-2.25) and the presence of multiple co-morbid conditions (HR 1.69, 95% CI 0.38-7.58) for five or more co-morbid conditions (compared to individuals with one documented co-morbidity). The C-statistic of the final model was 0.80. We have developed a practical model for individualising the risk of short-term readmission for CHF. This model may provide additional information for targeting and tailoring interventions and requires future prospective evaluation. Copyright © 2015 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
    Heart, Lung and Circulation 05/2015; 24(11). DOI:10.1016/j.hlc.2015.04.168 · 1.44 Impact Factor
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    • "Heart diseases are one of the main causes of death worldwide; heart failure is associated with a significantly reduced physical and mental health, resulting in a decreased quality of life [1,2]. Although many patients with cardiovascular diseases survive for many years, progressive disease is associated with an overall annual mortality rate of 10% [3]; heart failure is the leading cause of hospitalisation in people older than 65 years [4]. One of the outstanding achievements at the end of the last century are the studies on properties of biological and synthetic materials in nanometre. "
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    ABSTRACT: The article overviews the potential biomedical applications of nanoscale gold particles for predictive, preventive and personalised nanomedicine in cardiology. The review demonstrates the wide opportunities for gold nanoparticles due to their unique biological properties. The use of gold nanoparticles in cardiology is promising to develop fundamentally new methods of diagnosis and treatment. The nanotheranostics in cardiovascular diseases allows the non-invasive imaging associated with simultaneous therapeutic intervention and predicting treatment outcomes. Imaging may reflect the effectiveness of treatment and has become a fundamental optimisation setting for therapeutic protocol. Combining the application of biomolecular and cellular therapies with nanotechnologies foresees the development of complex integrated nanodevices. Nanocardiology may challenge existing healthcare system and economic benefits as cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality at present.
    06/2013; 4(1):18. DOI:10.1186/1878-5085-4-18
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    • "There are approximately 125,000 acute myocardial infarctions (AMI) in the UK per year (BHF statistics 2008 ( Whilst advances in reperfusion therapies such as primary percutaneous coronary angiography (PPCI) have reduced early mortality from AMI [1] morbidity, most commonly resulting from heart failure, which may occur early or long after the MI, remains high [2]. Paradoxically, the act of reperfusion leads to further tissue damage, a process described as ischaemia-reperfusion-injury (IRI) which can account for up to 50% of the final infarct size [3]. "
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    Journal of Translational Medicine 05/2013; 11(1):116. DOI:10.1186/1479-5876-11-116 · 3.93 Impact Factor
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