Predictors of first repeat biopsy cancer detection with suspected local stage prostate cancer.
ABSTRACT We determine demographic and tumor related predictors of repeat biopsy cancer detection in men with suspected stage T1c-2 prostate cancer.
The study population included 298 consecutive men with suspected stage T1c-2 prostate cancer who had a benign prostate biopsy at 1 institution between January 1, 1992 and April 1, 1999 and underwent 1 repeat biopsy. Mean age plus or minus standard deviation was 66.8+/-6.7 years for 133 black (55%) and 165 white (45%) patients. Clinical measures included determination of high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia in benign biopsy specimens, Gleason score of malignant biopsy specimens, prostate specific antigen (PSA), PSA density, annualized interbiopsy PSA change, percent free PSA (201 cases) and PSA velocity (171).
Cancer was detected on repeat biopsy in 80 cases (27%). Significant differences between patients with benign and malignant repeat biopsies included age (p = 0.001), PSA density (p = 0.0001), percent free PSA (p = 0.0001) and PSA velocity (p = 0.009). High grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia in an initial benign biopsy was not predictive of cancer in repeat biopsy (p = 0.12). Multiple logistic regression analysis of all cases showed that age (p = 0.002) and PSA density (p = 0.0002) were independent predictors of cancer. Subset multiple logistic regression analysis modeled with age, PSA density and percent free PSA demonstrated that age (p = 0.002) and percent free PSA (p = 0.0001) were significant independent predictors of malignancy. Subset multiple logistic regression analysis modeled with age, PSA density, percent free PSA and PSA velocity revealed that age (p = 0.02) and percent free PSA (p = 0.0003) were significant independent predictors of cancer. There were no significant differences between the Gleason scores of cancers detected on repeat biopsy compared to 587 stage T1c-2 cancers detected on initial biopsy during the study period (p = 0.09). PSA, PSA density, percent free PSA and PSA velocity were not significantly different among men without a cancer diagnosis who had high grade neoplasia in 1 or 2 benign biopsies.
Greater than 25% of this population of select patients with suspected stage T1c-2 prostate cancer had malignancy detected on repeat biopsy. Percent free PSA was the most powerful predictor of cancer. High grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia was not a predictor of repeat biopsy cancer detection and PSA functions were similar among men without cancer who did and did not have high grade neoplasia in 1 or more benign biopsies. This finding suggests that high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia may not be a reliable indicator of clinically significant existing prostate cancer.
Article: Development and validation of risk score for predicting positive repeat prostate biopsy in patients with a previous negative biopsy in a UK population.[show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Little evidence is available to determine which patients should undergo repeat biopsy after initial benign extended core biopsy (ECB). Attempts have been made to reduce the frequency of negative repeat biopsies using PSA kinetics, density, free-to-total ratios and Kattan's nomogram, to identify men more likely to harbour cancer but no single tool accurately predicts biopsy outcome. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive nomogram to identify men more likely to have a cancer diagnosed on repeat prostate biopsy. Patients with previous benign ECB undergoing repeat biopsy were identified from a database. Association between age, volume, stage, previous histology, PSA kinetics and positive repeat biopsy was analysed. Variables were entered stepwise into logistic regression models. A risk score giving the probability of positive repeat biopsy was estimated. The performance of this score was assessed using receiver characteristic (ROC) analysis. 110 repeat biopsies were performed in this period. Cancer was detected in 31% of repeat biopsies at Hospital (1) and 30% at Hospital (2). The most accurate predictive model combined age, PSA, PSA velocity, free-to-total PSA ratio, prostate volume and digital rectal examination (DRE) findings. The risk model performed well in an independent sample, area under the curve (AUCROC) was 0.818 (95% CI 0.707 to 0.929) for the risk model and 0.696 (95% CI 0.472 to 0.921) for the validation model. It was calculated that using a threshold risk score of > 0.2 to identify high risk individuals would reduce repeat biopsies by 39% while identifying 90% of the men with prostate cancer. An accurate multi-variable predictive tool to determine the risk of positive repeat prostate biopsy is presented. This can be used by urologists in an outpatient setting to aid decision-making for men with prior benign histology for whom a repeat biopsy is being considered.BMC Urology 01/2009; 9:7. · 1.45 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The diagnosis of prostate cancer is based on histology. Prostate biopsies are obtained based on the triad of prostate specific antigen (PSA), digital rectal examination (DRE) and transrectal ultrasound. Because prostate biopsies still have a large percentage of negative outcomes, patient selection and biopsy direction need improvement. This paper describes the recent improvements in prostate cancer imaging, especially contrast-enhanced transrectal ultrasound.World Journal of Urology 09/2007; 25(4):367-73. · 2.41 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: We reported a nomogram and subsequently a corrected version for predicting the probability of positive biopsy in men with 1 or more prior negative biopsies. In this study we assessed the validity of this nomogram when applied to an external dataset. There were 230 patients from the Brooklyn Veterans Administration Medical Center who underwent 1 or more repeat biopsies after initial negative biopsy from January 1993 to June 2003. Predictor variables studied in the nomogram were patient age, family history of prostate cancer, digital rectal examination, serum prostate specific antigen, prostate specific antigen slope, months from initial negative biopsy session, months from previous negative biopsy session, cumulative number of negative cores previously taken and history of high grade intraepithelial neoplasm or atypical small acinar proliferation. We calculated the nomogram predicted probability in each patient. These predicted outcomes were compared with actual biopsy results. Area under the ROC curve was calculated as a measure of discrimination. Calibration was assessed graphically. We evaluated a total of 356 repeat biopsies in 230 patients (mean 2.56 total biopsies per patient). The mean number of total cores per patient was 17.9. There were 78 positive biopsies. The area under the ROC curve was 0.71, which was greater than any single risk factor. Nomogram calibration appeared to be good. Our corrected nomogram for predicting positive repeat biopsy performed well when applied to a sample of men at the Brooklyn Veterans Administration Medical Center. This nomogram can provide important additional information to aid the urologist and patient with a negative biopsy in evaluating clinical options.The Journal of Urology 03/2005; 173(2):421-4. · 3.75 Impact Factor