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Biodiversity - Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

Department of Ecology and Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas vinculadas a la Agricultura, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires, Avenida San Martín 4453, Buenos Aires 1417, Argentina.
Science (Impact Factor: 31.48). 04/2000; 287(5459):1770-4. DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon
dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified
a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major
sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate
change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic
exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional
change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems
are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes
in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent
one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

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