Performance of three preoperative risk indices; CABDEAL, EuroSCORE and Cleveland models in a prospective coronary bypass database

Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care Medicine, HUCH, Meilahti Hospital, FIN-00029 HUS, Helsinki, Finland.
European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (Impact Factor: 2.81). 04/2002; 21(3):406-10. DOI: 10.1016/S1010-7940(02)00007-6
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT The aim of the present study was to evaluate the performance of three different preoperative risk models in the prediction of postoperative morbidity and mortality in coronary artery bypass (CAB) surgery.
Data on 1132 consecutive CAB patients were prospectively collected, including preoperative risk factors and postoperative morbidity and in-hospital mortality. The preoperative risk models CABDEAL, EuroSCORE and Cleveland model were used to predict morbidity and mortality. A C statistic (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) was used to test the discrimination of these models.
The area under the ROC curve for morbidity was 0.772 for the CABDEAL, 0.694 for the EuroSCORE and 0.686 for the Cleveland model. Major morbidity due to postoperative complications occurred in 268 patients (23.6%). The mortality rate was 3.4% (n=38 patients). The ROC curve areas for prediction of mortality were 0.711 for the CABDEAL, 0.826 for the EuroSCORE and 0.858 for the Cleveland model.
The CABDEAL model was initially developed for the prediction of major morbidity. Thus, it is not surprising that this model evinced the highest predictive value for increased morbidity in this database. Both the Cleveland and the EuroSCORE models were better predictive of mortality. These results have implications for the selection of risk indices for different purposes. The simple additive CABDEAL model can be used as a hand-held model for preoperative estimation of patients' risk of postoperative morbidity, while the EuroSCORE and Cleveland models are to be preferred for the prediction of mortality in a large patient sample.

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Available from: Tuula S Kurki, Aug 23, 2015
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    • "Importantly, the additive Euro-Score, an index of co-morbidities that correlates with mortality after cardiothoracic surgery [11], was similar for patients with LOS ≥ 7 (7.9, range 5-13) and LOS ≤ 6 days (8.3, range 6-12). Our finding of a positive association of postoperatively elevated S100A12 and sRAGE plasma concentration with length of hospitalization in adults undergoing non-urgent coronary artery bypass grafting extents earlier studies demonstrating a positive correlation of S100A12 and/or sRAGE with the onset of acute lung injury and adult respiratory distress syndrome [7] [10] [13]. "
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    ABSTRACT: Study's purpose: Plasma levels of soluble receptor for advanced glycation endproducts (sRAGE) and S100A12 are increased in young children after cardiac surgery and correlate with the time spent on cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). This study was performed to investigate whether plasma levels of sRAGE and S100A12 are affected by the use of CPB. Levels of S100A12 and sRAGE, along with of interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor-α, myeloperoxidase, and C-reactive protein were measured in 25 adults undergoing non-urgent coronary artery bypass grafting with and without the use of CPB. Significant finding: Plasma levels of S100A12, sRAGE, IL-6, TNF-α and MPO 4h after cardiac surgery were elevated compared to baseline; this increase was equally observed in patients undergoing traditional coronary artery bypass grafting on cardiopulmonary bypass (n = 16), and in patients undergoing robot-assisted coronary artery bypass grafting off pump (OPCAB, n = 9). Patients with prolonged hospitalization of 7 days or longer had significantly higher S100A12 and sRAGE 4 hours post surgery compared to patients hospitalized ≤ 6 days. Increased sRAGE and S100A12 after cardiac surgery is associated with prolonged length of hospitalization in patients after coronary artery bypass grafting; however, we did not observe an intrinsic effect of cardiopulmonary bypass on S100A12 or sRAGE plasma levels in our small pilot study. Further studies are required to confirm the value of sRAGE and S100A12 in predicting postoperative complications after cardiac surgery in a larger study.
    01/2013; 3(2):85-90.
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    • "The EuroSCORE, however, was developed to score the mortality during hospital stay [7]. There are some studies which tested the accuracy of EuroSCORE in predicting postoperative morbidity after coronary artery bypass grafting [4] or cardiac surgery [5] [6] [20] with contradictory results, depending on the selected parameters. Because morbidity is comprised of heterogeneous parameters it appears to be difficult to find a model to predict overall postoperative complications. "
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    ABSTRACT: To evaluate the performance of EuroSCORE in the prediction of in-hospital postoperative length of stay and specific major postoperative complications after cardiac surgery. Data on 5051 consecutive patients (isolated [74.4%] or combined coronary artery bypass grafting [11.1%], valve surgery [12.0%] and thoracic aortic surgery [2.5%]) were prospectively collected. The EuroSCORE model (standard and logistic) was used to predict in-hospital mortality, 3-month mortality, prolonged length of stay (>12 days) and major postoperative complications (intraoperative stroke, stroke over 24 h, postoperative myocardial infarction, deep sternal wound infection, re-exploration for bleeding, sepsis and/or endocarditis, gastrointestinal complications, postoperative renal failure and respiratory failure). A C statistic (or the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was used to test the discrimination of the EuroSCORE. The calibration of the model was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic. In-hospital mortality was 3.9% and 16.1% of patients had one or more major complications. Standard EuroSCORE showed very good discriminatory ability and good calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality (C statistic: 0.76, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.449) and postoperative renal failure (C statistic: 0.79, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.089) and good discriminatory ability in predicting sepsis and/or endocarditis (C statistic: 0.74, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.653), 3-month mortality (C statistic: 0.73, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.097), prolonged length of stay (C statistic: 0.71, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.051) and respiratory failure (C statistic: 0.71, Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.714). There were no differences in terms of the discriminatory ability in predicting these outcomes between standard and logistic EuroSCORE. However, logistic EuroSCORE showed no calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P<0.05) except for sepsis and/or endocarditis (Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.078). EuroSCORE was unable to predict other major complications such as intraoperative stroke, stroke over 24 h, postoperative myocardial infarction, deep sternal wound infection, gastrointestinal complications and re-exploration for bleeding. EuroSCORE can be used to predict not only in-hospital mortality, for which it was originally designed, but also 3-month mortality, prolonged length of stay and specific postoperative complications such as renal failure, sepsis and/or endocarditis and respiratory failure in the whole context of cardiac surgery. These outcomes can be predicted accurately using the standard EuroSCORE which is very simple and easy in its calculation.
    European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery 01/2005; 27(1):128-33. DOI:10.1016/j.ejcts.2004.09.020 · 2.81 Impact Factor
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