Estimating the immigration multiplier: an analysis of recent Korean and Filipino immigration to the United States.

Konkuk University, Sŏul, Seoul, South Korea
International Migration Review (Impact Factor: 1.15). 02/1989; 23(4):813-38. DOI: 10.2307/2546463
Source: PubMed


"This article explores the effect of 'chaining' through the petitioning of relatives on the demand for future immigrant visas [to the United States]. The data for the study come from a 1986 survey of 3,911 respondents from the Philippines and the Republic of Korea who were interviewed in Manila and Seoul just after they had received their U.S. immigrant visas. Analyses are conducted to derive different types of multipliers that may be used in estimating the effects of chain migration.... The empirical results for the Philippines and Korea indicate that the potential for future immigration through the family reunification entitlements of the immigration law is lower than has previously been suggested." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1987 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 53, No. 3, Fall 1987, p. 385).

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    • ") than for those from the Philippines and Korea (Arnold, Carino, Fawcett, and Park 1989). "
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    ABSTRACT: Official statistics about lawful migration and unauthorized migration reflect the consequences of the last decade's amnesty. First, lawful admissions peaked in 1991 and then dropped and the number of lawful residents jumped for considering the magnitude of net authorized immigration. Although many had applied and received amnesty on a family basis, others subsequently sought to obtain immigrant visas for spouses and children, so that the second preference backlog is persistently high. Post-1990 growth of the foreign-born population is a consequence of extension of 1970s and 1980s patterns-substantial authorized immigration, continuing unauthorized migration, and diminishment of the historically significant cohorts of European immigrants. Legalized immigrants now appear within naturalization applications for which numbers are without precedent. A disproportionate number of Mexican immigrants are only now becoming eligible to naturalize after benefiting from amnesty programs of the 1980s. Prior research on naturalization and citizenship status is consistent with the hypothesis that Mexican immigrants could achieve high levels of naturalization. Their intentions to apply for naturalization seem to be influenced by having specific types of close family members abroad. The magnitude of potential family unification, especially for Mexico, is considerable and immigration of legalized immigrants' family members is likely to extend well beyond the special visa allocation of 1992-1994 into the next decade. For deciphering legal status composition, missing data as to several foreign-born population subgroups such as this one may lead to biases. A present concern is that the technical demography of estimating unauthorized residents in the United States leads to overestimation to the extent that these spouses and children, and other family members, are already resident. Even by a crude gauge of second preference visa backlog, the margin of error on unauthorized estimates could be great.
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    ABSTRACT: Drawing upon a special survey of those who legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA) as having resided in an unlawful status since before 1982, this research focuses on their intentions to naturalize and their family members’ intentions to immigrate to examine the likely demand for immigration visas. The research questions to be addressed are: What will be the probable numbers and timing of visa petitions under second preference and under other family preferences or as exempt immediate relatives, assuming that immigrants intending to naturalize do so? IRCA-legalized cohorts could eventually sponsor considerable immigration of their immediate relatives. Several recommendations are included for improving social science and policy analyses of progression to naturalization, impacts for legal immigration of family migration, and possible interconnections of family migration with undocumented immigration to the United States.

  • International Migration Review 02/1989; 23(3):671-80. DOI:10.2307/2546434 · 1.15 Impact Factor
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