Predicting Future Cardiovascular Disease Do we need the oral glucose tolerance test?
ABSTRACT Our objective was to compare the performance of oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) and multivariate models incorporating commonly available clinical variables in their ability to predict future cardiovascular disease (CVD).
We randomly selected 2,662 Mexican-Americans and 1,595 non-Hispanic whites, 25-64 years of age, who were free of both CVD and known diabetes at baseline from several San Antonio census tracts. Medical history, cigarette smoking history, BMI, blood pressure, fasting and 2-h plasma glucose and serum insulin levels, triglyceride level, and fasting serum total, LDL, and HDL cholesterol levels were obtained at baseline. CVD developed in 88 Mexican-Americans and 71 non-Hispanic whites after 7-8 years of follow-up. Stepwise multiple logistic regression models were developed to predict incident CVD. The areas under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the predictive power of these models.
The area under the 2-h glucose ROC curve was modestly but not significantly greater than under the fasting glucose curve, but both were relatively weak predictors of CVD. The areas under the ROC curves for the multivariate models incorporating readily available clinical variables other than 2-h glucose were substantially and significantly greater than under the glucose ROC curves. Addition of 2-h glucose to these models did not improve their predicting power.
Better identification of individuals at high risk for CVD can be achieved with simple predicting models than with OGTTs, and the addition of the latter adds little if anything to the predictive power of the model.
- 01/2010; 9(16). DOI:10.1016/S0211-3449(04)70150-2
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ABSTRACT: T he substantial burden of morbidity and mortality associated with type 2 diabetes and the high costs associated with the management of diabetic complications highlight the need for the development of strategies for the prevention of diabetes. Impaired glucose tolerance is a pre-diabetic state which may present an opportunity for intervention to prevent the onset of clinical diabetes. Four recent clinical trials, the DPP, the FDPS, the STOP-NIDDM and the Da Qing study, have evaluated interventions based on diet and exercise and/or pharmacotherapy in pre-diabetic subjects. In all these trials the intervention strategies significantly reduced the incidence of diabetes. A worldwide epidemic of type 2 diabetes will occur over the coming decades and translating the results of these studies into practical and effective initiatives for diabetes prevention is an urgent clinical priority. Br J Diabetes Vasc Dis 2003;3(suppl 1):S6-S11