Publications

  • Eva Valeri, Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: Discrete choice model and a Monte Carlo simulation model are used to estimate the market penetration of cars with alternative fuelpowertrain technologies in Italy.•The subsidies enacted by the Italian government in favour of the low CO2 emitting cars appear to favour mostly the diesel cars.•A three-fold increase in the BEVs range does not change their market share significantly (about 2%).
    Transport Policy. 01/2015; 37.
  • Lucia Rotaris, Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: Universities, like other types of public and private institutions, when located in a city, have both positive and negative impacts on the area where they are situated. On the one hand, they contribute to the prestige of the area; on the other hand, they are large generators/attractors of traffic. The ability to successfully balance the pros and cons of the urban location of these large traffic-generating institutions is crucial for their success and for the livability of the city. In this paper this issue has been analyzed selecting as a representative case the University of Trieste. The aim of the research is to understand: (a) how mode choice decisions are made by the teaching and administrative staff and by the students at the various locations where academic activities take place, and (b) how they would be affected by 8 different transport management policies. It is found that changing the parking regulations (via the annual permit cost, the hourly parking fee, the number of parking spaces and the location of the parking lots) greatly influences mode choice in favor of bus use, especially for teaching and administrative staff and in the suburban locations. The students would be impacted by such changes only if an hourly parking tariff is introduced. The alternative approach of fully subsidizing the bus services would also have a large impact on bus ridership, affecting the mode choice in particular of the teaching staff and in the main university suburban sites. Since the implementation of these bus-favoring policies could face the opposition either of the university staff or of the bus company, two more balanced policy mixes were tested: the first one, increasing parking price and imposing new parking restrictions, would increase bus ridership by 19%; the second one, reducing both bus and parking subsidies, would increase bus ridership by 13%.
    Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice 09/2014; 67:127–140. · 2.73 Impact Factor
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    Andrea Rusich, Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: Sommario: Questo articolo stima i costi privati derivanti dal possesso dell'automobile ed i costi sociali inerenti l'intero ciclo di vita del carburante per sette modelli di automobile (la benzina VW Polo, la diesel Ford Fiesta, la Fiat Punto Evo Natural Power bi-fuel metano-benzina, l'Alfa Romeo MiTo bi-fuel Gpl-benzina, l'ibrida Toyota Yaris, l'elettrica con leasing della batteria Renault Zoe e l'elettrica con proprietà della batteria Peugeot iOn) attualmente in vendita in Italia, utilizzando per l'analisi dati nazionali relativi all'acquisto dei veicoli, ai prezzi dei carburanti e dell'energia elettrica, ai costi di manutenzione, ai costi dell'inquinamento atmosferico e del rumore, al mix energetico. Tra i modelli di automobile considerati, la Ford Fiesta (diesel) è la migliore dal punto di vita del costo totale privato e del consumo di energia relativo al ciclo di vita del carburante, ma la peggiore in termini di costi sociali (inquinamento atmosferico globale, locale e rumore), i quali sono pari a circa il 2,7% del totale dei costi privati. La Toyota Yaris (ibrida) è un'altra scelta molto buona in termini di costi privati (la seconda migliore) ed efficace anche in termini di costi sociali (second best). Tra i modelli bi-fuel, la Fiat Punto (metano-benzina) offre le migliori prestazioni sia in termini di costi privati che sociali. La VW Polo (benzina) ha costi privati più elevati della Ford Fiesta (diesel) e anche della Toyota Yaris (ibrido), risultando invece leggermente migliore rispetto alla Ford Fiesta (diesel) in termini di costi sociali. Contrariamente alle aspettative comuni, i modelli di automobili elettriche sono meno performanti, rispetto alle altre vetture considerate, in termini di consumi energetici e costi connessi all'inquinamento locale mentre risultano solo leggermente migliori rispetto alle automobili convenzionali in termini di costi connessi all'inquinamento globale (CO 2). Solamente quando si tengono in considerazione anche i costi dell'inquinamento acustico, le auto elettriche diventano le migliori scelte in termini di costi sociali. Infine, si propone una analisi di scenario per valutare come la classifica delle vetture sia influenzata da alcuni parametri: anni di possesso del veicolo, chilometri annui percorsi, incentivi resi disponibili dal Governo italiano per le automobili meno inquinanti, aumento del prezzo dei carburante convenzionali (benzina e gasolio), una diminuzione del costo di produzione delle batterie.
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    ABSTRACT: Sommario: Il lavoro presenta i risultati di una ricerca di mercato, condotta intervistando 121 persone, residenti in varie regioni italiane e non, avente l'obiettivo di stimare i possibili scenari di penetrazione di automobili con differente tipo di alimentazione in relazione ad eventuali politiche di incentivazione statale, a possibili variazioni nei prezzi dei combustili e nel prezzo di acquisto delle auto elettriche ed ad innovazioni tecnologiche che aumentano l'autonomia delle batterie. Sono state prese in considerazione 7 tipologie di automobili, appartenenti prevalentemente alla Classe B: la VW Polo (benzina), la Ford Fiesta (diesel), la Fiat Punto Evo (bifuel -metano), la Natural Power Alfa Romeo Mito (bifuel -GPL), la Toyota Yaris (ibrida -benzina), la Peugeot Ion (elettrica con batteria di proprietà) e la Renault Zoe (elettrica con batteria a noleggio). Ad ogni persona è stato sottoposto un questionario e degli esercizi di scelta ipotetica. Le risposte ottenute hanno permesso di stimare un modello di scelta discreta di tipo mixed logit e di elaborare un modello di simulazione. Le simulazioni indicano che le preferenze dei consumatori, tra i 7 modelli considerati nello studio e scelti come rappresentativi della Classe B di automobili, con gli attuali prezzi di acquisto e caratteristiche tecnologie delle automobili, vedono con maggior favore soprattutto la Ford Fiesta (diesel) (72,9% come prima scelta) e, in seconda battuta, la Toyota Yaris (ibrida -benzina) con il 18,6% come prima scelta ed il 71,6% come seconda scelta. Le automobili elettriche -la Peugeot Ion (elettrica con batteria di proprietà) e la Renault Zoe (elettrica con batteria a noleggio) -si attestano attorno ad un promettente 6,5% come prima scelta, con una preferenza per quelle con batteria di proprietà. L'introduzione del contributo statale per l'acquisto di auto a basse emissioni e il probabile aumento dell'autonomia delle automobili elettriche rovesciano l'ordinamento di preferenza: la Toyota Yaris (ibrida -benzina) diventa la scelta preferita seguita dalla Ford Fiesta (diesel), mentre le auto elettriche crescono fino ad arrivare in qualche scenario a circa il 12%. Solo in uno scenario estremamente favorevole alle automobili elettriche con la presenza congiunta del contributo statale e dell'eventuale aumento del prezzo dei carburanti di origine fossile o di un'ulteriore diminuzione di 5.000€ del prezzo delle automobili elettriche, eventualmente reso possibile dalla diminuzione dei prezzi delle batterie o dal godimento delle economie di scala, le automobili elettriche raggiungono un significativo livello che si attesta a circa il 24% come prima scelta. Parole chiave: Domanda di automobili, penetrazione di mercato, preferenze dichiarate, modello a scelta discreta, simulazione.
  • Danielis R., Maggi E., Rotaris L., Valeri E.
    Freight Transport Modeling, Edited by Ben-Akiva M., Meersman H., Van De Voorde E, 05/2013; Emerald Group Publishing., ISBN: 9781781902851
  • Lucia Rotaris, Romeo Danielis, Paolo Rosato
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    ABSTRACT: Although the value of travel time (VTT) is extensively used in transport economics in order to conduct cost–benefit analysis and there have been numerous studies estimating this information for different countries, transport modes and type of users, there are very few estimates for the university students commuting from their hometown to the university-town. This article presents a VTT estimate for the students enrolled at the University of Trieste (Italy) based on sequential approach which: (1) collects revealed preference data in order to estimate a preliminary VTT; (2) generates C-efficient Bayesian designs pivoted around the characteristics of homogenous segments of the population and (3) administers an integrated revealed and stated preference questionnaire to a selected sample. The estimate obtained on the basis of the combined revealed and stated preference data ranges from 2.8 to 1.4€/h is significantly lower than the estimates obtained on the bases of the revealed preference data only, which ranges from 18 to 13€/h, and differs from the VTT for commuting to work reported in the literature by a factor of about 6.
    Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy. 07/2012; 1(2).
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    Danielis R., Rotaris L., Valeri E.
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    ABSTRACT: The paper discusses the possibility of introducing a carsharing service in a tourist area to enhance the mobility alternatives available to tourists, improve the accessibility to the tourist sites, increase the location attractiveness and, in some instances, preserve the quality of the environment. Such a possibility is already implemented in some locations. In order to evaluate the potential demand and the economic sustainability of such a service, which could be implemented both by private and public organization, a simulation model is presented and parameterized with data relative to Italy. The model allows testing which tariff and organizational structure is more convenient.
    Rivista italiana di economia, demografia e statistica 01/2012; LXVI(2):103-119.
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    Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: L’uscita del volume “Le infrastrutture in Italia: dotazione, programmazione, realizzazione”, pubblicato recentemente dalla Banca d’Italia, a cura di Fabrizio Balassone e Piero Casadio, è un’ottima occasione per fare il punto sulla politica delle infrastrutture e dei trasporti. ll volume raccoglie una serie di ricerche presentate nel corso di un workshop tenuto a Perugia il 14-15 ottobre 2010 e di un convegno tenutosi a Roma il 28 aprile 2011. Il volume, assai corposo, tocca molti temi tra cui: la relazione tra investimenti pubblici e crescita economica; la dotazione e l'accessibilità delle infrastrutture sul territorio; le risorse finanziarie, pubbliche e private, destinate alle opere pubbliche; le procedure che governano la programmazione e la realizzazione degli investimenti; le reti e i servizi di trasporto. Per gli scopi di questo articolo, pur essendo molti dei contributi presentanti assai rilevanti, prenderemo spunto soprattutto dai lavori inerenti le infrastrutture e le politiche riguardanti il trasporto, sia passeggeri che di merci. Prima di inoltrarci nell’analisi delle diverse modalità è opportuno dotarsi di uno schema concettuale che faccia da guida nel percorso
    01/2012;
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    ABSTRACT: The paper provides an evaluation of the Ecopass scheme for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010. The term Ecopass conveys the stated political objective of the scheme: a PASS to improve the quality of the urban environment (ECO). The scheme has actually improved the air quality in Milan, although the recommended PM 10 threshold is still exceeded for a larger number of days than that recommended by EU directives. This paper estimates the costs and benefits of the scheme three years after its implementation using the same methodology applied in Rotaris et al. (2010) for the year 2008. It results that the benefits still exceed the costs by an increasing amount, but at an annual decreasing rate of improvement. The Ecopass scheme has proved beneficial, but it seems to have exhausted its potential: little further gains in environmental quality could be obtained via a fiscal incentive to improve the abatement technology of the vehicles. The new administration, elected in June 2011, is faced with the task of deciding whether to dismiss, maintain or change the Ecopass scheme. The prevailing idea coming from the Ecopass Commission and from the advocacy groups is to extend both the area of application and the number of classes subject to the charge. A move from a pollution charge to a congestion charge, or at least a combination of a pollution and a congestion charge is envisaged.
    01/2012;
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    Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: The paper illustrates the results of a research project aimed at identifying the main economic and industrial characteristics of the port system of the Friuli Venezia Giulia Region, Italy, and the role it plays within the economy. Combing a top-down and bottom-up approach, based on interviews and detailed data at firm level, a bi-regional input-output table is built with a special disaggregation of the 12 port-related sectors of the Friuli Venezia Giulia region. The input-output table provides the basis for the estimation of a bi-regional input-output model. Drawing from the input-output literature, the paper also implements two methodologies to estimate: a) the level of self-sufficiency of the port system and b) its degree of substitutability, that is, what would happen if the Friuli Venezia Giulia port system closes down, completely or partially.
    Maritime Economics & Logistics 01/2012; 15(2). · 0.90 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Manufacturing firms buy transport services with the aim of minimizing their total logistics cost. There is a large amount of literature analyzing how shippers value the various characteristics of a transport service, mostly performed by collecting stated-preference data and estimating discrete choice models. Most of the empirical studies specify the deterministic part of the utility functions as linear in the observed attributes. This implicitly constrains the characteristics of the analyzed transport service to be perfect substitutes, and to have a constant substitutability ratio. Such an assumption is inconsistent with the standard microeconomic theory, typically assuming inputs' decreasing marginal productivity, and may not be realistic. The paper tests the linearity assumption for freight rate, travel time, probability of having damaged and lost freight, frequency, flexibility, mode and punctuality on a sample of Italian small-and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SME). Our findings suggest that the linearity-in-the-attributes assumption should be rejected and that the marginal impact on the utility-of-profit of the attributes is not constant. More specifically travel time and freight rate produce decreasing marginal reductions of the utility-of-profit; while safety (percentage of not damaged or lost shipments) and punctuality (percentage of shipments on time) are responsible for increasing marginal contributions to the utility-of-profit. The substitutability ratios between (a) freight rate and loss and damage, (b) freight rate and travel time, (c) freight rate and punctuality, (d) travel time and damage and loss and (e) travel time and punctuality are estimated and found not constant. Finally, it is found that the willingness to pay for the qualitative attributes obtained with a linearly specified model tend to be overestimated.
    01/2012; 50:1825-3997.
  • 01/2012;
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    Lucia Rotaris, Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: Coffee can be distributed via the conventional supply chain or via the alternative fair trade supply chain. The implications of this choice on the distribution of the value added among the actors of the chain are relevant. Fair trade coffee rewards relatively more the producers located in the developing countries. A survey applying stated preference data collection methods to Italian households has demonstrated that they are willing to pay a premium price for the certified fair trade coffee of about 2.2 euros for a 250 gram coffee packet. This premium price, however, can vary significantly according to age, gender, income, and purchasing habits of the consumers. The methodology used implemented state-of-the-art survey design techniques and advanced models specifications to capture preference heterogeneity.
    Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization 01/2011; 9(1):6-6.
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    ABSTRACT: There is growing evidence indicating that there can be significant differences between choices made by single individuals and those made by the same individuals when choosing collectively. This study investigates the dissimilarities between individual and joint decision making in the context of residential location choice. It is widely recognised that household location choices involve several members of a household with heterogeneous preferences and influence. Nonetheless, little is known about group decision-making processes in practice. In particular, there is only scant evidence on how preferences differ among family members and to what extent individual preferences can be aggregated to achieve an approximation of joint choices. The paper addresses the issue of heterogeneity in single members’ preferences, compares ex ante single preferences and ex post joint choice outcomes, and quantifies the implicit bias generated by relying on the representative member approach. A set of hypotheses is tested via a two-stage conjoint choice experiment administered to a sample of seventy-eight Italian families. The main novelty of the paper relates to the extension of the dyadic interaction approach to consider the role of adolescents in household decision making.
    Environment and Planning A. 01/2011; 43(5):1209-1225.
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    ABSTRACT: Residential mobility modelling is an integral part of urban planning in which house-hold locations determine demand for community facilities and services öincluding transportation systems. Agent interaction within families has, with few exceptions, been considered irrelevant when studying group decisions. Study assumptions have often used the representative member hypothesis to operationalise theoretical models. Along these lines empirical studies, employing stated preference (SP) techniques to analyse group behaviour, have generally ignored potentially important issues inherent in multiperson choices. Not considering thèappropriate' unit of analysis generates biased welfare estimates and erroneous policy decisions especially when the represen-tative member hypothesis is adopted which implies that information is gathered from a single individual (Adamowicz et al, 2005; Molin et al, 1999). Recent studies have questioned the practice of treating group preferences as coincident with those of single members: this should be tested rather than assumed. There is clear evidence both of preference differences between family members and of dissimilarities between choices made individually and jointly (Bateman and Munro, 2005; Beharry-Borg et al, 2009; Dosman and Adamowicz, 2006; Hensher et al, 2008). This paper investigates the differences between distinct household member types (ie adolescent, wife, husband), and their joint choices (family) of residential location by formulating three hypotheses.
    01/2011;
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    ABSTRACT: Le politiche di regolamentazione del traffico urbano merci finora adottate non si sono dimostrate ancora sufficientemente in grado di raggiungere l’obiettivo di migliorare il grado di efficienza privata del sistema distributivo urbano. Di conseguenza, le esternalità negative prodotte da tale traffico, in termini soprattutto di inquinamento e congestione, permangono ancora alte, causando elevati costi sociali. Una delle cause di questo fallimento è la ancora scarsa conoscenza delle caratteristiche organizzative, in termini di numero di attori, di potere decisionale e di obiettivi delle differenti supply chain, il cui anello finale si colloca all’interno delle città. L’obiettivo del lavoro è quello di contribuire a colmare, almeno in parte, questo gap informativo, descrivendo le catene del valore ed i relativi canali di approvvigionamento e di distribuzione relativi alla città di Roma. Si riportano, in particolare, i risultati di 118 interviste dirette effettuate tra novembre e dicembre 2010 a produttori, grossisti e dettaglianti delle dodici macro-filiere maggiormente rappresentative che caratterizzano il commercio urbano nella capitale, focalizzandosi sulla filiera dell’alimentare e su quella di piante e fiori.
    01/2011;
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    ABSTRACT: Starting from January 2008 Milan implemented a charging scheme to enter an 8Â km2 area of the city centre. The term used to denote the scheme is Ecopass, conveying the stated political objective of the scheme: a pass to improve the quality of the urban environment (ECO). The charge depends on the Euro emission standard of the vehicle. The paper illustrates the main features and impacts of the Milan Ecopass scheme, and presents a preliminary cost-benefit analysis. The scheme has been effective in curbing not only pollution emissions, but also congestion, and the result has been achieved with low implementation costs and without major political opposition. The cost-benefits analysis presents an overall net benefit. The identification of the winners and losers of the policy is conditioned by penalty payments. Without including the penalties, the surface public transport users and the society at large are the main winners, whereas car and especially freight vehicle users are net losers.
    Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice 06/2010; 44(5):359-375. · 2.73 Impact Factor
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    Romeo Danielis, Lucia Rotaris, Edoardo Marcucci
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    ABSTRACT: Urban areas are vital centers of economic activity and innovation generating large economies of density and proximity. Yet, procuring and distributing goods in an urban context is fraught with difficulties because of infrastructure congestion, external costs, conflicting objectives among stakeholders, and asymmetric information. In order to improve the performance of the urban goods transport system many policies have been proposed, including goods vehicle time windows, vehicle-type restrictions, loading\unloading policies, fiscal policies, and the promotion urban transhipment and consolidation centres. Unfortunately, not much is known concerning how these policies affect the existing distribution practices. It is quite likely that the impact is differentiated by type of product and distribution channel. The aim of this paper is to explore this issue. Drawing on the existing literature and on the empirical evidence from some Italian cities, the paper identifies and discusses the relationship between each of the above-mentioned policies and the distribution channels of some goods (fresh food sold in retail stores, food distributed by Hotels, Restaurants and Catering (Ho.Re.Ca.), pharmaceutical products and clothing&footwear) which are commonly distributed in Italian urban centers. It is found that the distribution of pharmaceutical products is unaffected by these policies, whereas the distribution of fresh food is negatively affected especially by access time regulation and loading\unloading policies. The Ho.Re.Ca. and the clothing&footwear channels are likely to be impacted the most by fiscal policies and by the promotion of urban transhipment and consolidation centres.
    European Transport \ Trasporti Europei. 01/2010;
  • Edoardo Marcucci, Lucia Rotaris, Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: L’articolo illustra un metodo per individuare e stimare gli effetti di interazione nei processi decisionali delle famiglie e testa la validità dell’ipotesi del membro rappresentativo studiando come le preferenze dei singoli influenzano le scelte della famiglia. Si riportano i risultati di un esperimento di scelta dichiarata relativo alla scelta ipotetica tra soluzioni residenziali alternative. Il ranking degli attributi sia per la famiglia sia per i singoli è lo stesso. I coefficienti stimati per ciascun membro sono statisticamente diversi da quelli della famiglia dimostrando la fallacia dell’ipotesi del membro rappresentativo. Si stima il potere relativo al livello degli attributi e si estende l’analisi ad un gruppo di tre membri.
    SCIENZE REGIONALI. 01/2010; 9(2):25-45.
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    ABSTRACT: Microeconomics studies group behaviour by using the representative member model. However, there is growing evidence that there can be significant differences between choices made by single individuals and those made by the same individuals when choosing collectively. This study investigates the differences between individual and joint decisionmaking in the context of residential location choice. It is widely recognized that household location choices involve several members of a household with heterogeneous preferences and influence power. Nonetheless little is known about group decision-making processes in practice. In particular, there is only scant evidence on how preferences differ among family members and to what extent individual preferences can be aggregated to achieve an approximation of joint choices. The study evaluates whether there is heterogeneity in single members’ preferences. Furthermore, relative power is inferred by measuring similarity between ex ante single preferences and ex post joint choice outcomes. We also quantify the implicit bias generated by relying on the representative member approach. These issues are tested by employing a two-stage conjoint choice experiment administered to a sample of 53 Italian families. This work proposes a novel extension of the commonly used dyadic interaction approach to consider the role of adolescents in household decision-making.
    University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2010;

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