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Article: A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.
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ABSTRACT: Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.The Lancet 12/2013; 380(9859):2224-60. · 38.28 Impact Factor -
Article: GBD 2010 country results: a global public good
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ABSTRACT: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) constitutes an unprecedented collaboration of 488 scientists from 303 institutions in 50 countries, focusing on describing the state of health around the world using a uniform method. Results for the world and 21 regions for 1990 and 2010 have been reported for 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these causes, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors. 1–7 The burden of each disease, injury, or risk factor has been quantifi ed in terms of deaths, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Although only global and regional results have been reported so far, the underlying unit of analysis for GBD 2010 was 187 countries. Age-specifi c mortality was analysed for each country for each year from 1970 to 2010. Causes of death were estimated for each country from 1990 to 2010 with country-specifi c data and models. Disease and injury sequelae were estimated in most cases with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR) that includes estimation of systematic diff erences in incidence, prevalence, or excess mortality between countries within regions. 5 Systematic analysis of risk factor exposure, excess health risks associated with each risk–outcome pair, and counterfactual minimum risk levels of exposure were used to compute attributable burden. On the basis of these analyses, GBD 2010 provides a complete assessment of the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for 187 countries including quantifi cation of uncertainty in the estimates for 1990 and 2010, albeit with important limitations because of the scarcity of data for some outcomes in some countries and the need to use a range of statistical models to generate estimates. The availability of standardised estimates for each of the 187 countries over time provides an unprecedented opportunity to undertake comparative assessments, to benchmark country performance in control of critical diseases, injuries, and risks, and to stimulate evidence-based action. Most of the scientists in the GBD 2010 collaboration volunteered their own time or raised their own funds to participate. 8 A key motivation for them was the opportunity to publish more detailed analyses of data, methods, and results for specifi c diseases, injuries, and risk factors. Many reports are in submission or in preparation and provide more detail for specifi c diseases, injuries, risk factors, and countries. 9 Although we expect that these reports will be important contributions to the scientifi c literature, we recognise that country results from the GBD are a global public good that could be a useful or even critical input into a more informed national, regional, and global dialogue about health challenges. Already, governments of several developed and developing countries have approached us seeking access to more detailed results. Because we believe that the dissemination and rapid availability of the detailed results is a moral imperative, we are providing global access to these details on March 5, 2013, through a series of online visualisations. To allow suffi cient time for members of the GBD 2010 collaboration to report their own research fi ndings, we will defer dissemination of public-use datasets of the underlying results presented in the visualisations until Sept 1, 2013. In this way, we believe that we can provide global access to these important results while at the same time respecting the intellectual investment of the collaboration's mem-bers. Nonetheless, anticipating that some governments might wish to have immediate access to more detailed information as an input to national policy dialogue, we have provided and will continue to provide detailed national disease burden results on request. We also encourage use of the visualisations or snapshots of their images for teaching, communication, and other educational purposes. Alongside the reporting of global and regional results in The Lancet, fi ve data visualisations were made available in December, 2012. For visualisation of country-level data, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has developed new visualisations with expanded scope and functionality, which are being launched on March 5. Data visualisations can make complex information accessible and interpretable without advanced statistical or epidemiological training. The primary purpose of these visualisations is to allow health specialists, policy makers, the media, donors, and the general public to explore the patterns of health in diff erent age and sex groups, countries, and time periods. Providing information on patterns of health to this broad audience could enhance the scope and quality of national, regional, and global dialogue about the main For data visualisations seeThe Lancet 03/2013; 381(9871):965-70. · 38.28 Impact Factor -
Article: GBD 2010 country results: a global public good
The Lancet 03/2013; · 38.28 Impact Factor -
Article: GBD 2010 country results: a global public good
The Lancet 03/2013; · 38.28 Impact Factor -
Article: GBD 2010 country results: a global public good
The Lancet 03/2013; · 38.28 Impact Factor
