Luciano Nakabashi
Publications
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Instituições e nível de renda: uma abordagem empírica para os municípios paranaenses
Universidade Federal do Paran�, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2010;
The Paran� State municipalities show a great of disparity in the level of development. The GDP per worker difference between the most and the least developed cities in the beginning of this millennium was superior to 700%, according to IBGE (2000) database. Therefore, studies to detect the sources o... [more] The Paran� State municipalities show a great of disparity in the level of development. The GDP per worker difference between the most and the least developed cities in the beginning of this millennium was superior to 700%, according to IBGE (2000) database. Therefore, studies to detect the sources of these huge income disparities among municipalities of Paran� State are of great relevance. A possible explanation for these disparities is provided by institutional theory. Many empirical studies based on this theory have found a high correlation between institutional quality and the level of economic development. This theory suggests that the institutions affect the level of economic development through its effects on the political power distribution, on the generation of economic opportunities, on innovation and human capital accumulation, and so on. Considering the above mentioned theory, the present study objective is to analyze the effects of institutional quality of Paran� State municipalities on their levels of economic development.
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Impactos da Mudança Estrutural da Economia Brasileira sobre o seu Crescimento
Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2009;
In the structuralist approach, the industry sector has an outstanding role because several features point that this is an essential sector for the economy’s dynamics. HIRSCHMAN (1958) points out that the industry sector has more backward and forward linkages comparing to the other sectors of the eco... [more] In the structuralist approach, the industry sector has an outstanding role because several features point that this is an essential sector for the economy’s dynamics. HIRSCHMAN (1958) points out that the industry sector has more backward and forward linkages comparing to the other sectors of the economy. Additionally, he states that positive externalities and spillovers are more relevant in that sector. KALDOR (1957) also stresses that the industry has more potential to present static and dynamic economies of scale. Considering these arguments, the present paper’s goal is to investigate the effects of the Brazilian economy structural change on its performance in the period 1948-2007.
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Structural Change and the Service Sector in Brazil
02/2008;
A key question with a long tradition in development economics is which patterns of structural change are more conducive for economic growth and convergence in the international economy. Although some studies show that industry has been loosing ground in the Brazilian economy (both in terms of employ... [more] A key question with a long tradition in development economics is which patterns of structural change are more conducive for economic growth and convergence in the international economy. Although some studies show that industry has been loosing ground in the Brazilian economy (both in terms of employment and value added), there are few studies discussing how this process affects the performance of the Brazilian economy. Evidence regarding the quality of the jobs created in other sectors is yet scarce. Both topics are addressed in this paper. It is suggested that that the Brazilian deindustrialization process is not a virtuous one, i.e. it is not the result of a dynamic response to long run trends in technology and demand. On the contrary, most jobs are generated in low-productivity activities in the service sector.
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Uma análise do capital humano sobre o nível de renda dos estados brasileiros: MRW versus Mincer
02/2008;
Human capital, productivity and physical capital are considered the main factors in the economies’ GDP per capita determination. According to the neoclassical approach, human capital accumulation explains about a third of the variation in per capita income across countries. However, there is no cons... [more] Human capital, productivity and physical capital are considered the main factors in the economies’ GDP per capita determination. According to the neoclassical approach, human capital accumulation explains about a third of the variation in per capita income across countries. However, there is no consensus on the ways in which human capital influences GDP per capita. The present study’s goal is to compare two production functions functional forms for the Brazilian States: the one developed by SOLOW (1956) and the one developed by MINCER (1974). The marginal return of education also has been estimated and we have analyzed the relevance of human capital on GDP per capita determination through a variety of estimation methods, for the 1980-2002 period. The empirical results rejected the neoclassical specification with human capital in favor of the mincerian’s specification. The estimated marginal return of education is 15% and the empirical findings support the theory that states that human capital is one of the main factors affecting income level.
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Efeitos do câmbio e juros sobre as exportações da indústria brasileira
02/2007;
Since the middle of the 80s, Brazil is facing a process of industry participation loss as a percentage in GDP and in the economy total employment. This phenomenon can be characterized as a deindustrialization process. Some elements such as increase in produtitivity, statistical illusion, and demand ... [more] Since the middle of the 80s, Brazil is facing a process of industry participation loss as a percentage in GDP and in the economy total employment. This phenomenon can be characterized as a deindustrialization process. Some elements such as increase in produtitivity, statistical illusion, and demand have been pointed out as being responsible for this process. In recent years the exchange and interest rates have had a crucial role in this process.. Because the exchange rate has an influence on the productive sector by the changes it exerts on the exports and imports level, it would be expected that these two sectors of the economy have been passing through important transformations in the last years as a consequence of the Brazilian exchange rate decrease. Following OECD methodology for industrial production segmentation, the present study have separated the industrial exports sector in intensive in: 1) natural resources; 2) labor; 3) scale; 4) differentiation; and 5) science. The main objective of the present study is to analyze the impact of the exchange and interest rates on the relative participation of the above mentioned industrial export segments between the 2002-2006 period of time.
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Desindustrialização? Uma análise comparativa entre Brasil e Paraná
02/2007;
This paper discusses the empirical evidence on deindustrialization in Brazil, which is compared with the case of Parana. The study suggests that the participation of industry has fallen in Brazil, and discusses the implications of this trend for long run growth. On the other hand, a different trend ... [more] This paper discusses the empirical evidence on deindustrialization in Brazil, which is compared with the case of Parana. The study suggests that the participation of industry has fallen in Brazil, and discusses the implications of this trend for long run growth. On the other hand, a different trend is observed in the case of Parana, reflecting the process of structural change that took place in this state in the nineties.
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A Economia do Crescimento puxado pela Demanda Agregada Teoria e Aplicações ao Caso Brasileiro
02/2007;
O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar a teoria do crescimento puxado pela demanda agregada e algumas evidências econométricas da existência de um regime de crescimento puxado pela demanda para o caso da economia brasileira. Inicialmente será feita uma revisão crítica dos exercícios de contabilidade d... [more] O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar a teoria do crescimento puxado pela demanda agregada e algumas evidências econométricas da existência de um regime de crescimento puxado pela demanda para o caso da economia brasileira. Inicialmente será feita uma revisão crítica dos exercícios de contabilidade do crescimento baseados nos modelos de crescimento neoclássicos. De acordo com a metodologia de contabilidade do crescimento, a economia brasileira só poderia crescer a uma taxa máxima de 3,5% a.a, taxa muito inferior a média histórica da economia brasileira no período 1950-1980; e, além disso, inferior a taxa de crescimento obtida por outras economias emergentes como, por exemplo, Rússia, China e Índia. Após a crítica da metodologia da contabilidade do crescimento iremos fazer uma breve revisão da teoria do crescimento puxado pela demanda agregada, com base na contribuição original de Kaldor (1988) para o tema. Segundo Kaldor, o crescimento de longo-prazo é determinado pela taxa de crescimento da demanda agregada autônoma; ou seja, pela soma entre a taxa de crescimento dos gastos de consumo corrente do governo e a taxa de crescimento das exportações. Dessa forma, a questão relevante para o caso brasileiro é avaliar se os gastos de consumo corrente do governo e as exportações são determinantes importantes do crescimento econômico. Com base na metodologia desenvolvida por Atesoglu (2002), realizamos alguns testes econométricos para a hipótese de que o crescimento da economia brasileira é puxado pela demanda agregada. Os resultados dos testes econométricos mostram que 95% do crescimento do PIB real no período 1990-2005 é explicado por variáveis do lado da demanda agregada da economia. Os testes econométricos também mostram que o multiplicador dos gastos de consumo corrente do governo é aproximadamente igual a 0,37 de tal forma que um aumento de 1% dos gastos de consumo corrente do governo irá resultar num aumento de 0.37% do PIB real brasileiro. Tomando-se como base uma carga tributária de cerca de 40% do PIB, segue-se que um aumento de 1% dos gastos de consumo corrente do governo irá aumentar a receita tributária em apenas 0.15% do PIB. Devido a elevada dívida pública como proporção do PIB e a também elevada carga tributária como proporção do PIB, não é possível induzir uma aceleração sustentável do crescimento da economia brasileira por intermédio de um aumento da taxa de crescimento dos gastos do governo. Para acelerar de forma sustentável o crescimento econômico é necessário a adoção de um modelo de crescimento puxado pelas exportações. Para isso, no entanto, é necessário reverter o cenário atual de apreciação da taxa real de câmbio. Com o intuito de se analisar a relação entre crescimento econômico e taxa real de câmbio iremos apresentar uma versão modificada do modelo de causalidade cumulativa de Setterfield (1997). Nessa versão modificada iremos mostrar que o nível da taxa real de câmbio é um determinante importante da elasticidade-renda das exportações e, portanto, da taxa de crescimento de equilíbrio de longo-prazo do produto real. Uma importante implicação de política econômica que se pode extrair desse modelo é que a fixação de uma meta de inflação muito baixa pode reduzir a taxa de crescimento de equilíbrio de longo-prazo à medida que resulta numa forte apreciação da taxa real de câmbio.
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Human Capital Quality in the Brazilian States
Economia. 02/2007; 8(2).
Quality of human capital seems to be an extremely important feature to be disregarded in the evaluation of this factor impacts on income per worker (rate of growth and level). This is the reason for the emergence of many recent studies which includes some variable that takes into account the quality... [more] Quality of human capital seems to be an extremely important feature to be disregarded in the evaluation of this factor impacts on income per worker (rate of growth and level). This is the reason for the emergence of many recent studies which includes some variable that takes into account the quality of human capital. The present study’s goal is to make an empirical analysis by using a human capital proxy that takes into account quantitative and qualitative aspects of this factor to measure with a higher level of accuracy the human capital direct impacts on Brazilian States output level in the years 1970, 1980, 1991, and 2000. The methods employed are Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares (IRLS) and Panel Data regressions.
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The Economics of Demand Led-Growth Theory and Evidence for Brazil
Universidade Federal do Paran�, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2007;
This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effec... [more] This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection.
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Desindustrialização? Uma análise comparativa entre Brasil e Paraná
Universidade Federal do Paran�, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2007;
This paper discusses the empirical evidence on deindustrialization in Brazil, which is compared with the case of Parana. The study suggests that the participation of industry has fallen in Brazil, and discusses the implications of this trend for long run growth. On the other hand, a different trend ... [more] This paper discusses the empirical evidence on deindustrialization in Brazil, which is compared with the case of Parana. The study suggests that the participation of industry has fallen in Brazil, and discusses the implications of this trend for long run growth. On the other hand, a different trend is observed in the case of Parana, reflecting the process of structural change that took place in this state in the nineties.
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A Economia do Crescimento puxado pela Demanda Agregada Teoria e Aplicações ao Caso Brasileiro
Universidade Federal do Paran�, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2007;
O objetivo deste artigo � apresentar a teoria do crescimento puxado pela demanda agregada e algumas evid�ncias econom�tricas da exist�ncia de um regime de crescimento puxado pela demanda para o caso da economia brasileira. Inicialmente ser� feita uma revis�o cr�tica dos exerc�cios de contabilidade d... [more] O objetivo deste artigo � apresentar a teoria do crescimento puxado pela demanda agregada e algumas evid�ncias econom�tricas da exist�ncia de um regime de crescimento puxado pela demanda para o caso da economia brasileira. Inicialmente ser� feita uma revis�o cr�tica dos exerc�cios de contabilidade do crescimento baseados nos modelos de crescimento neocl�ssicos. De acordo com a metodologia de contabilidade do crescimento, a economia brasileira s� poderia crescer a uma taxa m�xima de 3,5% a.a, taxa muito inferior a m�dia hist�rica da economia brasileira no per�odo 1950-1980; e, al�m disso, inferior a taxa de crescimento obtida por outras economias emergentes como, por exemplo, R�ssia, China e �ndia. Ap�s a cr�tica da metodologia da contabilidade do crescimento iremos fazer uma breve revis�o da teoria do crescimento puxado pela demanda agregada, com base na contribui��o original de Kaldor (1988) para o tema. Segundo Kaldor, o crescimento de longo-prazo � determinado pela taxa de crescimento da demanda agregada aut�noma; ou seja, pela soma entre a taxa de crescimento dos gastos de consumo corrente do governo e a taxa de crescimento das exporta��es. Dessa forma, a quest�o relevante para o caso brasileiro � avaliar se os gastos de consumo corrente do governo e as exporta��es s�o determinantes importantes do crescimento econ�mico. Com base na metodologia desenvolvida por Atesoglu (2002), realizamos alguns testes econom�tricos para a hip�tese de que o crescimento da economia brasileira � puxado pela demanda agregada. Os resultados dos testes econom�tricos mostram que 95% do crescimento do PIB real no per�odo 1990-2005 � explicado por vari�veis do lado da demanda agregada da economia. Os testes econom�tricos tamb�m mostram que o multiplicador dos gastos de consumo corrente do governo � aproximadamente igual a 0,37 de tal forma que um aumento de 1% dos gastos de consumo corrente do governo ir� resultar num aumento de 0.37% do PIB rea
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Efeitos do câmbio e juros sobre as exportações da indústria brasileira
Universidade Federal do Paran�, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2007;
Since the middle of the 80s, Brazil is facing a process of industry participation loss as a percentage in GDP and in the economy total employment. This phenomenon can be characterized as a deindustrialization process. Some elements such as increase in produtitivity, statistical illusion, and demand ... [more] Since the middle of the 80s, Brazil is facing a process of industry participation loss as a percentage in GDP and in the economy total employment. This phenomenon can be characterized as a deindustrialization process. Some elements such as increase in produtitivity, statistical illusion, and demand have been pointed out as being responsible for this process. In recent years the exchange and interest rates have had a crucial role in this process.. Because the exchange rate has an influence on the productive sector by the changes it exerts on the exports and imports level, it would be expected that these two sectors of the economy have been passing through important transformations in the last years as a consequence of the Brazilian exchange rate decrease. Following OECD methodology for industrial production segmentation, the present study have separated the industrial exports sector in intensive in: 1) natural resources; 2) labor; 3) scale; 4) differentiation; and 5) science. The main objective of the present study is to analyze the impact of the exchange and interest rates on the relative participation of the above mentioned industrial export segments between the 2002-2006 period of time.
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Investimento, Indústria e Crescimento Econômico Brasileiro: uma Análise da Relação de Causalidade
Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2007;
In the economic growth and development literature there are two elements that are usually considered to be essential in shaping countries’ economic performance. The first one is that investments on the real sector are a necessary condition to generate productive capacity on industry and other econom... [more] In the economic growth and development literature there are two elements that are usually considered to be essential in shaping countries’ economic performance. The first one is that investments on the real sector are a necessary condition to generate productive capacity on industry and other economic sectors. The second one is the perception that investment on industrial activities is an engine of economic growth. The main objective of the present study is to analyze the causality relation involving investment, industrial growth, and economic growth by means of the Granger causality test for the Brazilian economy between 1948 and 2005.
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Os efeitos do câmbio e juros na balança comercial paranaense
Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2007;
The exchange rate affects the economy productive structure through its impact on the external sector. Some empirical studies suggest that the recent process of exchange rate evaluation in the Brazilian economy has a significant impact on some of its key sectors competitiveness, disturbing creation o... [more] The exchange rate affects the economy productive structure through its impact on the external sector. Some empirical studies suggest that the recent process of exchange rate evaluation in the Brazilian economy has a significant impact on some of its key sectors competitiveness, disturbing creation of job and long run development. The effects of high interest rate on the economic performance through shifts on the entrepreneurs’ investment decisions are also extremely important. Therefore, the analysis of exchange and interests rates effects on the productive structure is truly important to understand a regions’ economic performance. Taking into consideration this scenario, the present study main objective is to analyze the impact of these two above mentioned variables on Paraná State external sectors between April of 2001 and December of 2006.
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Capital humano e crescimento: impactos diretos e indiretos
07/2005;
The objective of this study is to evaluate the different channels in which human capital affects income level and growth and to use a proxy of human capital variable that incorporates quantitative and qualitative aspects of this factor. The human capital proxy that will be used is years of schooling... [more] The objective of this study is to evaluate the different channels in which human capital affects income level and growth and to use a proxy of human capital variable that incorporates quantitative and qualitative aspects of this factor. The human capital proxy that will be used is years of schooling (h) times HDI (Human Development Index) and h times HDI squared. HDI utilization is to measure countries degree of development. The assumption is that the more developed a country is, the better is its system of human capital formation. The empirical analysis is based in a model that incorporates several channels in which human capital affects the rate of income per worker growth: 1) improving the marginal productivity of labor; 2) through creation of technology; and 3) diffusion of technology. The consideration of several channels in which human capital affects income is due to the complexity of the relationship between these two variables. Therefore, if we consider only some channels we can incur in model specification errors.
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Economic growth, convergence and quality of human capital formation system
07/2005;
This paper’s goal is to make use of a human capital proxy that takes into account quantitative and qualitative aspects of this factor to measure with a higher level of accuracy the impact of human capital on countries’ income level and rate of growth. The empirical study will take place by means of ... [more] This paper’s goal is to make use of a human capital proxy that takes into account quantitative and qualitative aspects of this factor to measure with a higher level of accuracy the impact of human capital on countries’ income level and rate of growth. The empirical study will take place by means of a comparative analysis of Mankiw, Romer and Weil’s 1992 paper.
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Capital humano: uma nova proxy para incluir aspectos qualitativos
Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG. 01/2005;
The role of human capital on the development process has been recognized as a crucial element by many researchers. Nevertheless, many empirical results have showed no correlation between human capital and income per capita level or between human capital and growth rates. It is argued that the intera... [more] The role of human capital on the development process has been recognized as a crucial element by many researchers. Nevertheless, many empirical results have showed no correlation between human capital and income per capita level or between human capital and growth rates. It is argued that the interaction between the two variables is more complicated than predicted by endogenous model of growth as the one developed by Lucas-Uzawa. Other problem that is usually mentioned is the proxy´s lack of quality because it does not take into account the disparities in the educational system when different nations are compared. The main goal of this paper is to employ a proxy for human capital that tries to take into account this characteristic and compare with Mankiw, Romer and Weil 1992’s results.
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Crescimento da economia brasileira e fluxo de capitais a partir da Lei de Thirlwall:1968-1980 e 1992-2000
Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG. 01/2004;
Capital flows are expected to be important in the process of economic growth for several reasons. One of them is their importance in relaxing the balance of payments constraints as envisaged by Thirlwall’s law, which states that when economic growth takes place, the level of imports also grows. Cons... [more] Capital flows are expected to be important in the process of economic growth for several reasons. One of them is their importance in relaxing the balance of payments constraints as envisaged by Thirlwall’s law, which states that when economic growth takes place, the level of imports also grows. Consequently, there is a necessary increase in the export level or in the volume of capital inflows as imposed by the balance of payment constraints. The goal of the present paper is to investigate how capital flows during the periods 1968-1980 and 1992-2000 have stimulated the Brazilian economy by means of Thirlwall’s model and to attempt to explain why Brazilian economic performance in the earlier period was so superior to that in the later period.
Following (127)
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Gilberto Silveira Barros Neto
Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR) -
Macagnan Clea Beatriz
Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos (Unisinos) -
Francisco Antonio Serralvo
Pontifical Catholic University of Sao Paulo -
Gilson Silva Jr
Catholic University of Brasilia -
Ana Elisa Gonçalves Pereira
Fundação Getulio Vargas
