Publications

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    01/2011;
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    Hali J. Edison
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    ABSTRACT: The paper describes three empirical models commonly used to conduct exchange rate assessments and applies them to data for Australia and New Zealand. The baseline results using data and mediumterm projections available as of October 2008, suggest that the Australian and New Zealand dollars were broadly in line with fundamentals, but with a wide variation across models. A battery of sensitivity tests illustrate that altering the underlying assumptions can yield substantially different assessments. The results are particularly sensitive to the choice of assessment horizon, the set of economies included in the sample, medium-term forecasts, and the exchange rate reference period.
    03/2009;
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    Hali Edison, Dennis Botman, Papa N'Diaye
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    ABSTRACT: Japan's key fiscal challenge is to put public finances on a more sustainable footing. This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies for Japan using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model. The results suggest that (i) an adjustment package that achieves primary balance through lower social transfers and government spending and a higher VAT is the most viable option and has a smaller negative impact on growth than other fiscal measures; (ii) achieving primary balance is not sufficient to stabilize the net debt ratio; (iii) prefunding future aging costs provides greater long-term benefits compared with less front-loaded strategies; (iv) tax reform involving shifting from corporate taxation to consumption taxation could mitigate the short-term output losses associated with fiscal consolidation; (v) the spillovers to the rest of the world from consolidation in Japan are positive in the medium term, but modest.
    Japan and the World Economy 02/2009; 21(2):151-160. · 0.34 Impact Factor
  • Hali Edison, Francis Vitek
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    ABSTRACT: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the level of the real effective exchange rate in Australia and New Zealand. Design/methodology/approach – The paper describes three empirical models commonly used to conduct exchange rate assessments and applies them to data for Australia and New Zealand. Findings – The baseline results using data and medium-term projections, available as of October 2008, suggest that the Australian and New Zealand dollar were broadly in line with fundamentals, but with a wide variation across models. A battery of sensitivity tests illustrates that altering the underlying assumptions can yield substantially different assessments. The results are particularly sensitive to the choice of assessment horizon, the set of economies included in the sample, medium-term forecasts, and the exchange rate reference period. Originality/value – The paper provides an assessment of the exchange rates in Australia and New Zealand.
    Journal of Financial Economic Policy 01/2009; 1(May):155-176.
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    Hali Edison, Francis E. Warnock
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    ABSTRACT: We investigate the impact of two types of financial liberalizations on short- and long-horizon capital flows to emerging markets in a framework that controls for push and pull factors. The first type of liberalization, a reduction in capital controls, is countrywide but uncertain, because its extent and permanence are not known with certainty. The second type, a cross-border listing, is a firm-level liberalization that has no uncertainty. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that the deterministic cross-listing results in an immediate but short-lived increase in capital inflows. In contrast, the uncertain reduction in capital controls results in increased inflows only over a longer horizon, if at all.
    Journal of International Money and Finance 02/2008; 27(6):1013-1027. · 1.02 Impact Factor
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    Paul Cashin, Hali J. Edison, Hong Liang
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    ABSTRACT: Since the Australian dollar was floated in December 1983, the Australian central bank (Reserve Bank of Australia) has actively intervened in the foreign exchange market. Using daily exchange rate and official intervention data from January 1984 to December 2001, this paper examines what effects, if any, foreign exchange operations by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have had on the level and volatility of the Australian dollar exchange rate. First, using an event study we evaluate the effectiveness of intervention by examining its direct effect on the level of the exchange rate. We find that over the period 1997-2001, the RBA has had some success in its intervention operations, by moderating the depreciating tendency of the Australian dollar. Second, we investigate the effects of RBA intervention policies on exchange rate volatility over the floating rate period. Our results indicate that intervention operations tend to be associated with an increase in exchange rate volatility, which suggests that official intervention may have added to market uncertainty. Overall, the effects of RBA intervention are quite modest on both the level and the volatility of the Australian dollar exchange rate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    International Journal of Finance & Economics 02/2006; 11(2):155-171. · 0.33 Impact Factor
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    Hali Edison, Francis E. Warnock
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    ABSTRACT: We analyze a unique data set and uncover a remarkable result that casts a new light on the home bias phenomenon. The data are comprehensive, security-level holdings of emerging market equities by U.S. investors. We document that at a point in time U.S. portfolios are tilted towards firms that are large, have fewer restrictions on foreign ownership, or are cross-listed on a U.S. exchange. The size of the cross-listing effect is striking. In contrast to the well-documented under-weighting of foreign stocks, emerging market equities that are cross-listed on a U.S. exchange are incorporated into U.S. portfolios at full international CAPM weights. Our results suggest that information asymmetries play an important role in equity home bias and that the benefits of international risk sharing are limited to select firms. Copyright (c) 2004 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
    Review of Economics and Statistics 02/2004; 86(3):691-704. · 2.66 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the literature on the effects of capital account liberalization and stock market liberalization on economic growth. The various empirical measures used to gauge the presence of controls on capital account transactions as well as indicators of stock market liberalization are discussed. We compare detailed measures of capital account controls that attempt to capture the intensity of enforcement with others that simply capture whether or not controls are present. Our review of the literature shows the contrasting results that have been obtained. These differences may reflect differences in country coverage, sample periods and indicators of liberalization. In order to reconcile these differences, we present new estimates of the effects on growth of capital account liberalization and stock market liberalization. We find some support for a positive effect of capital account liberalization on growth, especially for developing countries.
    IMF Staff Papers 02/2004; 51(2):2-2. · 1.21 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: "This paper explores the ability of portfolio and foreign direct investment flows to track movements in the euro and the yen against the dollar. Net portfolio flows from the euro area into US stocks - possibly reflecting differences in expected productivity growth - track movements in the euro against the dollar closely. Net FDI flows, which capture the recent burst in cross-border M&A activity, appear less important in tracking movements in the euro-dollar rate, possibly because many M&A transactions consist of share swaps. Movements in the yen versus the dollar remain more closely tied to conventional variables such as the current account and interest differential." Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2004.
    European Financial Management 01/2004; 10(3):511-533. · 1.03 Impact Factor
  • Hali J. Edison, Francis E. Warnock
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    ABSTRACT: We analyze capital flows to emerging markets in a framework that incorporates two quantitative measures of financial integration, the intensity of capital controls and the extent of cross-border listings, while controlling for traditional global (push) and country-specific (pull) factors. Two important results emerge. First, the cross-listing of an emerging market firm on a U.S. exchange is an important but short-lived capital flows event, suggesting that the cross-listed stock is in effect a new security that U.S. investors quickly bring into their portfolios. Second, the effect of financial liberalization on capital flows is more nuanced than is suggested by event studies: A reduction in capital controls results in increased inflows only when the controls were binding. Among the standard push and pull factors, global factors are important---slack U.S. economic activity is associated with increased flows to emerging markets---and U.S. investors appear to chase expected, but not past, returns.
    02/2003;
  • Hali Edison, Ronald MacDonald
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    ABSTRACT: Recent proposals for reforming the international monetary system often focus on a target zone arrangement for the dollar, euro and yen. Theoretical research suggests that a credible target zone confers on a participant some short-run discretion in the setting of interest rates, and recent empirical research suggests that this was indeed the case for the Classical gold standard, perhaps the best example of a credible target zone. In this paper we examine the extent of short-run interest rate discretion (SRID) conferred by another experiment with target zones, namely the ERM experience. Amongst our findings is the result that countries that had a credible commitment to the ERM did indeed have SRID. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003
    Open Economies Review 02/2003; 14(4):351-368. · 0.44 Impact Factor
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    Hali J. Edison, Francis E. Warnock
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    ABSTRACT: We present a readily available monthly measure of the intensity of capital controls across 29 emerging market countries that is based on the degree of restrictions on foreign ownership of equities. The initial opening of a market as given by our measure corresponds well with the liberalization dates of Bekaert and Harvey (2000a). In addition, our measure provides information on the extent of the initial opening as well as the evolution of the liberalization over time. After presenting the measure, we compare it to other existing measures of capital controls and briefly describe empirical applications concerning home bias, capital flows to emerging markets, and the effects of financial liberalization on the cost of capital.
    Journal of Empirical Finance 02/2003; 10(1-2):81-103. · 0.84 Impact Factor
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    Hali Edison
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    ABSTRACT: The object of this paper is to develop an operational early warning system (EWS) that can detect financial crises. To achieve this goal the paper analyses and extends the early warning system developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) that is based on the 'signal' approach. This system monitors several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds (or falls below) a threshold, then it is said to issue a 'signal' that a currency crisis may occur within a given period. The model does a fairly good job of anticipating some of the crises in 1997|1998, but several weaknesses to the approach are identified. The paper also evaluates how this system can be applied to an individual country. On balance, the results in this paper are mixed, but the results suggest that an early warning system should be thought of as a useful diagnostic tool. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    International Journal of Finance & Economics 02/2003; 8(1):11-53. · 0.33 Impact Factor
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    Tamim Bayoumi, Hali Edison
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    ABSTRACT: This paper estimates the wealth effect on consumption of both equity and housing wealth, Using data across 16 industrial countries differentiated by type of financial system and examining trends in these wealth effects over time. The three main conclusions are found and their policy implications discussed: that the impact of a $1 increase in housing wealth on consumption is higher than the equivalent increase in equity wealth; countries with market- based financial systems have larger effects from changes in equity wealth than those with bank-based financial systems; and that the size of the wealth effects appears to be rising over time, probably reflecting financial deregulation.
    02/2003;
  • Hali Edison, Torsten Sløk
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    ABSTRACT: This paper investigates whether there is a different impact from changes in 'new' and 'old' economy stock valuations on private investment for seven OECD economies. A vector autoregressive model is estimated for each individual country, using quarterly data over the period 1990-2000. It is found that the impact from changes in valuations of new economy stocks to investment is roughly the same in North America and in the United Kingdom as in continental Europe. By contrast, the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on investment is, in general, larger in North America and in the United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on investment from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than for old economy stocks, whereas for North America and the United Kingdom, the impact is more similar.
    Applied Economics 01/2003; 35(9):1015-1023. · 0.46 Impact Factor
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    Hali J. Edison, Francis E. Warnock
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    ABSTRACT: Recent studies argue that the spread-adjusted Taylor rule (STR), which includes a response to the credit spread, replicates monetary policy in the United State. We show (1) STR is a theoretically optimal monetary policy under heterogeneous loan interest rate contracts in both discretionay and commitment monetary policies, (2) however, the optimal response to the credit spread is ambiguous given the financial market structure in theoretically derived STR, and (3) there, a commitment policy is effective in narrowing the credit spread when the central bank hits the zero lower bound constraint of the policy rate.
    International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Papers. 01/2003;
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    ABSTRACT: This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection.
    Journal of International Money and Finance 11/2002; · 1.02 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: This paper uses new data and new econometric techniques to investigate the impact of international financial integration on economic growth and also to assess whether this relationship depends on the level of economic development, financial development, legal system development, government corruption, and macroeconomic policies. Using a wide array of measures of international financial integration on 57 countries and an assortment of statistical methodologies, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis that international financial integration does not accelerate economic growth even when controlling for particular economic, financial, institutional, and policy characteristics.
    Journal of International Money and Finance 02/2002; 21(6):749-776. · 1.02 Impact Factor
  • Hali Edison, Torsten Slok
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    ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the impact from changes in "new" and "old" economy stock valuations on private consumption. The results from estimating a reduced form VAR for seven OECD countries for the 1990s suggest that the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on consumption is, in general, larger in countries with market-based financial systems (USA, Canada and the UK) than in countries with bank-based financial systems (continental Europe). Furthermore, the results indicate that the impact from changes in new economy valuations to consumption is roughly the same in the USA, Canada, the UK and in continental Europe. In addition, the results suggest that, in continental Europe, the impact on consumption from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than from the old economy stocks, whereas for the Anglo-Saxon countries, the impact is more or less the same between the two sectors. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd.
    International Finance 02/2002; 5(1):1-22. · 0.50 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection.
    International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Papers. 01/2002;

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