David Ian Stern

Publications

• 2.67

  Impact points

  The role of energy in economic growth.

  David I Stern

  Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 02/2011; 1219:26-51.

  This paper reviews the mainstream, resource economics, and ecological economics models of growth. A possible synthesis of energy-based and mainstream models is presented. This shows that when energy is scarce it imposes a strong constraint on the growth of the economy; however, when energy is abunda... [more] This paper reviews the mainstream, resource economics, and ecological economics models of growth. A possible synthesis of energy-based and mainstream models is presented. This shows that when energy is scarce it imposes a strong constraint on the growth of the economy; however, when energy is abundant, its effect on economic growth is much reduced. The industrial revolution released the constraints on economic growth by the development of new methods of using coal and the discovery of new fossil fuel resources. Time-series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate, and energy use Granger causes GDP when capital and other production inputs are included in the vector autoregression model. However, various mechanisms can weaken the links between energy and growth. Energy used per unit of economic output has declined in developed and some developing countries, owing to both technological change and a shift from poorer quality fuels, such as coal, to the use of higher quality fuels, especially electricity. Substitution of other inputs for energy and sectoral shifts in economic activity play smaller roles.

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• 4.41

  Impact points

  Temperature and malaria trends in highland East Africa.

  David I Stern, Peter W Gething, Caroline W Kabaria, William H Temperley, Abdisalan M Noor, Emelda A Okiro, G Dennis Shanks, Robert W Snow, Simon I Hay

  PloS one. 01/2011; 6(9):e24524.

  There has been considerable debate on the existence of trends in climate in the highlands of East Africa and hypotheses about their potential effect on the trends in malaria in the region. We apply a new robust trend test to mean temperature time series data from three editions of the University of ... [more] There has been considerable debate on the existence of trends in climate in the highlands of East Africa and hypotheses about their potential effect on the trends in malaria in the region. We apply a new robust trend test to mean temperature time series data from three editions of the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit database (CRU TS) for several relevant locations. We find significant trends in the data extracted from newer editions of the database but not in the older version for periods ending in 1996. The trends in the newer data are even more significant when post-1996 data are added to the samples. We also test for trends in the data from the Kericho meteorological station prepared by Omumbo et al. We find no significant trend in the 1979-1995 period but a highly significant trend in the full 1979-2009 sample. However, although the malaria cases observed at Kericho, Kenya rose during a period of resurgent epidemics (1994-2002) they have since returned to a low level. A large assembly of parasite rate surveys from the region, stratified by altitude, show that this decrease in malaria prevalence is not limited to Kericho.

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• A Meta-Analysis of Contingent Valuation Studies in Coastal and Near-Shore Marine Ecosystems

  Shuang Liu, David I Stern

  01/2009;

  The ecosystem services provided by coastal and near-shore marine systems contribute significantly to human welfare. However, studies that document values of these services are widely scattered in the peer-reviewed literature. We collected 39 contingent valuation papers with 120 observations to condu... [more] The ecosystem services provided by coastal and near-shore marine systems contribute significantly to human welfare. However, studies that document values of these services are widely scattered in the peer-reviewed literature. We collected 39 contingent valuation papers with 120 observations to conduct the first meta-analysis of the ecosystem service values provided by the coastal and near-shore marine systems. Our results show that over ¾ of the variation in Willingness to Pay (WTP) for coastal ecosystem services could be explained by variables in commodity, methodology, and study quality. We also used the meta-regression model to predict out-of-sample WTPs and the benefit transfer result showed that the overall median transfer error was 57%. Based on such results, one could argue that such meta-analyses can provide useful guidance regarding at least the general magnitudes of welfare effects. However, we also caution against the application of such a result in a broader context of benefit transfer as it is derived from a limited amount of data, and it may suffer from some degree of measurement error, generalization error, and publication selection error. Lastly, we discuss possible ways of minimizing these errors.

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• China's changing energy intensity trend: A decomposition analysis

  Chunbo Ma, David I. Stern

  02/2008; 30(3).

  China experienced a dramatic decline in energy intensity from the onset of economic reform in the late 1970s until 2000, but since then the rate of decline slowed and energy intensity actually increased in 2003. Most previous studies found that most of the decline was due to technological change, bu... [more] China experienced a dramatic decline in energy intensity from the onset of economic reform in the late 1970s until 2000, but since then the rate of decline slowed and energy intensity actually increased in 2003. Most previous studies found that most of the decline was due to technological change, but disagreed on the role of structural change. To the best of our knowledge, no decomposition study has investigated the role of inter-fuel substitution in the decline in energy intensity or the causes of the rise in energy intensity since 2000. In this paper, we use logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period 1980-2003. We find that: (1) technological change is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in energy intensity; (2) structural change at the industry and sector (sub-industry) level actually increased energy intensity over the period of 1980-2003, although the structural change at the industry level was very different in the 1980s and in the post-1990 period; (3) structural change involving shifts of production between sub-sectors, however, decreased overall energy intensity; (4) the increase in energy intensity since 2000 is explained by negative technological progress; (5) inter-fuel substitution is found to contribute little to the changes in energy intensity.

• Biomass and China's carbon emissions: A missing piece of carbon decomposition

  Chunbo Ma, David I. Stern

  Elsevier, Energy Policy. 01/2008; 36(7):2517-2526.

  A number of previous studies on China's carbon emissions have mainly focused on two facts: (1) the continuous growth in emissions up till the middle of the 1990s; (2) the recent stability of emissions from 1996 to 2001. Decomposition analysis has been widely used to explore the driving forces be... [more] A number of previous studies on China's carbon emissions have mainly focused on two facts: (1) the continuous growth in emissions up till the middle of the 1990s; (2) the recent stability of emissions from 1996 to 2001. Decomposition analysis has been widely used to explore the driving forces behind these phenomena. However, since 2002, China's carbon emissions have resumed their growth at an even greater rate. This paper investigates China's carbon emissions during 1971-2003, with particular focus on the role of biomass, and the fall and resurgence in emissions since the mid-1990s. We use an extended Kaya identity and the well-established logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI I) method. Carbon emissions are decomposed into effects of various driving forces. We find that (1) a shift from biomass to commercial energy increases carbon emissions by a magnitude comparable to that of the increase in emissions due to population growth, (2) the technological effect and scale effect due to per-capita gross domestic products (GDP) growth are different in the pre-reform period versus the post-reform period, (3) the positive effect of population growth has been decreasing over the entire period, and (4) the fall in emissions in the late 1990s and resurgence in the early 2000s may be overstated due to inaccurate statistics.

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• China's Carbon Emissions 1971-2003

  Chunbo Ma, David I. Stern

  Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics, Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics. 01/2007;

  A number of previous studies on China's carbon emissions have mainly focused on two facts: 1) the continuous growth in emissions up till the middle of the 1990s; 2) the recent stability of emissions from 1996 to 2001. Decomposition analysis has been widely used to explore the driving forces behi... [more] A number of previous studies on China's carbon emissions have mainly focused on two facts: 1) the continuous growth in emissions up till the middle of the 1990s; 2) the recent stability of emissions from 1996 to 2001. Decomposition analysis has been widely used to explore the driving forces behind these phenomena. However, since 2002, China's carbon emissions have resumed their growth at an even greater rate. This paper investigates China's carbon emissions during 1971-2003, with particular focus on the role of biomass, and, the fall and resurgence in emissions since the mid-1990s. We use an extended Kaya identity and the well-established logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI I) method. Carbon emissions are decomposed into effects of various driving forces. We find that: (1) A shift from biomass to commercial energy increases carbon emissions by a magnitude comparable to that of the increase in emissions due to population growth; (2) The technological effect and scale effect due to per capita GDP growth are different in the pre-reform period versus the post-reform period; (3) The positive effect of population growth has been decreasing over the entire period; (4) The fall in emissions in the late 1990s and resurgence in the early 2000s may be overstated due to inaccurate statistics. The rapid growth since the early 2000s, therefore, may not indicate a "new trend"; (5) Carbon emissions exhibit a correlation of 0.99 with coal consumption, which points to explicit policy suggestions.

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• Environmental and ecological economics: A citation analysis

  Chunbo Ma, David I. Stern

  02/2006; 58(3).

• The Effect of NAFTA on Energy and Environmental Efficiency in Mexico

  David I. Stern

  12/2005;

  Prior to Mexico's entry to NAFTA predictions of the consequent impact on the environment in that country ranged from the dire to the very optimistic. This paper investigates NAFTA's outcomes in terms of energy use and the emission of atmospheric pollutants. Specifically, has entry into NAFTA... [more] Prior to Mexico's entry to NAFTA predictions of the consequent impact on the environment in that country ranged from the dire to the very optimistic. This paper investigates NAFTA's outcomes in terms of energy use and the emission of atmospheric pollutants. Specifically, has entry into NAFTA led to a convergence or divergence in indicators of emissions, environmental efficiency, and emissions specific technology in Mexico, the United States, and Canada? Four emissions variables are considered: energy, carbon, sulfur, and NOx. Three different indicators of emissions and environmental efficiency are computed and tested for both convergence and the presence of a structural break associated with the introduction of NAFTA: energy or emissions per capita; energy or emissions intensity of GDP; and the state of technology in sulfur abatement and energy efficiency derived from a production frontier model estimated using the Kalman filter. Three convergence tests test for beta-convergence, sigma-convergence, and cointegration of the trends and the effect of NAFTA on these measures. I also test whether NAFTA induced a structural break in the trend of the various indicators. The results show that the extreme predictions of the outcomes of NAFTA have not materialized. Rather, trends that were already present before the introduction of NAFTA continue and in some cases improve post-NAFTA, but not yet in a dramatic way. There is strong evidence of convergence for all four intensity indicators across the three countries towards a lower intensity level. Though intensity is rising initially in some cases in Mexico, it eventually begins to fall post-NAFTA. Per capita measures for the two criteria pollutants also show convergence, but this is not the case for energy and carbon and the latter variables also drift moderately upwards. The state of technology in energy efficiency and sulfur abatement is improving in all countries, though there is little if any sign of convergence and NAFTA has no effect on the rate of technology diffusion. However, total energy use and carbon emissions increase both pre- and post- NAFTA and total NOx emissions increase in Mexico. Only total sulfur emissions are stable and falling in all three NAFTA partners.

• A Three-Layer Atmosphere-Ocean Time Series Model of Global Climate Change

  David I. Stern

  08/2005;

  Time series models of global climate change have tended to estimate a low climate sensitivity and a fast adjustment rate to equilibrium. These results appear to be biased by omission of a key variable - heat stored in the ocean. I develop a time series model of the ocean atmosphere climate system wh... [more] Time series models of global climate change have tended to estimate a low climate sensitivity and a fast adjustment rate to equilibrium. These results appear to be biased by omission of a key variable - heat stored in the ocean. I develop a time series model of the ocean atmosphere climate system where atmospheric temperature moves towards a long-run equilibrium with both radiative forcing and ocean heat content, which is distributed between upper ocean and deep ocean components. The time series model utilizes the notion of multicointegration to impose energy balance relations on an autoregressive model. As there are only around fifty years of observations on ocean heat content I use the Kalman filter to estimate heat content as a latent state variable constrained by the available observations. The estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 8.4K with a confidence interval of 5.0 to 11.7K. Temperature takes centuries to adjust to an increase in radiative forcing. The transient climate sensitivity at the point of carbon dioxide doubling is 1.7K.

• Reversal in the Trend of Global Anthropogenic Sulfur Emissions

  David I. Stern

  06/2005;

  Global anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased until the late 1980s. Existing estimates for 1995 and 2000 show a moderate decline from 1990 to 1995 or relative stability throughout the decade. This paper combines previously published data and new econometric estimates to show a 25% decline over the... [more] Global anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased until the late 1980s. Existing estimates for 1995 and 2000 show a moderate decline from 1990 to 1995 or relative stability throughout the decade. This paper combines previously published data and new econometric estimates to show a 25% decline over the decade to a level not seen since the early 1960s. The decline is evident in North America, Western and Eastern Europe and in the last few years in East and South Asia. If this new trend is maintained local air pollution problems will be ameliorated but global warming may be somewhat exacerbated.
• 4.96

  Impact points

  Climate variability and malaria epidemics in the highlands of East Africa.

  Simon I Hay, G Dennis Shanks, David I Stern, Robert W Snow, Sarah E Randolph, David J Rogers

  Trends in parasitology. 03/2005; 21(2):52-3.

  Malaria epidemics in the highlands of East Africa garner significant research attention, due, in part, to their proposed sensitivity to climate change. In a recent article, Zhou et al. claim that increases in climate variance, rather than simple increases in climate mean values, have had an importan... [more] Malaria epidemics in the highlands of East Africa garner significant research attention, due, in part, to their proposed sensitivity to climate change. In a recent article, Zhou et al. claim that increases in climate variance, rather than simple increases in climate mean values, have had an important role in the resurgence of malaria epidemics in the East African highlands since the early 1980s. If proven, this would be an interesting result but we believe that the methods used do not test the hypothesis suggested.
• 3.25

  Impact points

  Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000.

  David I Stern

  Chemosphere. 02/2005; 58(2):163-75.

  The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the peri... [more] The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.

• Diffusion of Emissions Abating Technology

  David I. Stern

  10/2004;

  The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) has been extensively criticized on econometric and theoretical grounds. Recent econometric results and case studies show that national emissions of important pollutants are monotonic in income but changes in technology can lead over time to reductions in polluti... [more] The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) has been extensively criticized on econometric and theoretical grounds. Recent econometric results and case studies show that national emissions of important pollutants are monotonic in income but changes in technology can lead over time to reductions in pollution - a lowering of the EKC - and that pollution reducing innovations and standards may be adopted with relatively short time lags in some developing countries. This study combines the recent literature on measuring environmental efficiency and technological change using production frontier methods with the use of the Kalman filter - a time series method for signal extraction - to model the state of abatement technology in a panel of countries over time. The EKC is reformulated as the best practice technology frontier - countries' position relative to the frontier reflects the degree to which they have adopted best practice. The results are used to determine whether countries are converging to best practice over time and how many years it will take each country to achieve current best practice. The model is applied to sulfur dioxide emissions from sixteen mainly developed countries.

• A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

  Robert K. Kaufmann, David I. Stern

  06/2004;

  The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of pre... [more] The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing three aspects of a GCM's ability to reconstruct the historical record for global surface temperature: (1) how well the GCMs track observed temperature; (2) are the residuals from GCM simulations random (white noise) or are they systematic (red noise or a stochastic trend); (3) what is the explanatory power of the GCMs compared to a simple alternative time series model, which assumes that temperature is a linear function of radiative forcing. The results indicate that three of the eight experiments considered fail to reconstruct temperature accurately; the GCM errors are either red noise processes or contain a systematic error, and the radiative forcing variable used to simulate the GCM's have considerable explanatory power relative to GCM simulations of global temperature. The GFDL model is superior to the other models considered. Three out of four Hadley Centre experiments also pass all the tests but show a poorer goodness of fit. The Max Planck model appears to perform poorly relative to the other two models. It does appear that there is a trade-off between the greater spatial detail and number of variables provided by the GCMs and more accurate predictions generated by simple time series models. This is similar to the debate in economics regarding the forecasting accuracy of large macro-economic models versus simple time series models.

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• Influential Publications in Ecological Economics: A Citation Analysis

  Robert Costanza, David I. Stern, Brendan P. Fisher, Lining He, Chunbo Ma

  04/2004;

  We assessed the degree of influence of selected papers and books in ecological economics using citation analysis. We looked at both the internal influence of publications on the field of ecological economics and the external influence of those same publications on the broader academic community. We ... [more] We assessed the degree of influence of selected papers and books in ecological economics using citation analysis. We looked at both the internal influence of publications on the field of ecological economics and the external influence of those same publications on the broader academic community. We used four lists of papers and books for the analysis: (1) 92 papers nominated by the Ecological Economics (EE) Editorial Board; (2) 71 papers that were published in EE and that received 15 or more citations in all journals included in the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Citation Index; (3) 57 papers that had been cited in EE 15 or more times; and (4) 77 monographs and edited books that had been cited in EE 15 or more times. For each publication we counted the total number of ISI citations as well as the total number of citations in EE. We calculated the average number of citations/yr to each paper since its publication in both the ISI database and in EE, along with the percentage of the total ISI citations that were in EE. Ranking the degree of influence of the publications can be done in several ways, including using the number of ISI citations, the number of EE citations or both. We discuss both the internal and external influence of publications and show how these influences might be considered jointly. We display and analyze the results in several ways. By plotting the ISI citations against the EE citations we can identify those papers that are mainly influential in EE with some broader influence, those that are mainly influential in the broader literature but have also had influence on EE, and other patterns of influence. There are both overlaps and interesting lacunae among the four lists that give us a better picture of the real influence of publications in ecological economics versus perceptions of those publications' importance. By plotting the number of citations vs. date of publication, we can identify those publications that are projected to be most influential. Plots of the time series of citations over the 1990-2003 period show a generally increasing trend (contrary to what one would expect for an "average" paper) for the top papers. We suggest that this pattern of increasing citations (and thus influence) over time is one hallmark of a "foundational" paper.

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• A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change

  David I. Stern

  04/2004;

  The concept of multicointegration introduced by Granger and Lee (1989) has been little used in economics. This paper demonstrates how it can find a useful application in the econometric analysis of global climate change. Time series models of global climate change tend to estimate a low climate sens... [more] The concept of multicointegration introduced by Granger and Lee (1989) has been little used in economics. This paper demonstrates how it can find a useful application in the econometric analysis of global climate change. Time series models of global climate change tend to estimate a low climate sensitivity (equilibrium effect on global temperature of doubling carbon dioxide concentrations) and a very fast adjustment rate to equilibrium. These results may be biased by omission of a key variable - heat stored in the ocean. A pilot study application illustrates the potential of the multicointegration approach and also demonstrates how partial observations on ocean heat content can be used to constrain the state variable using the Kalman filter. Parameter estimates are much closer to theoretically expected values than those from any existing type of time series model. The estimated climate sensitivity is 4.37K with a 95% confidence interval of 3.6K to 5.1K. However, estimated oceanic heat accumulation appears to correspond to only the heat changes in the upper 300m of the ocean. The pilot model can be elaborated in a number of directions including disaggregating forcings, spatial and vertical resolution, adding a model of the carbon cycle, and testing more complex dynamic specifications.

• Energy and Economic Growth

  David I. Stern, Cutler J. Cleveland

  04/2004;

  Physical theory shows that energy is necessary for economic production and therefore growth but the mainstream theory of economic growth, except for specialized resource economics models, pays no attention to the role of energy. This paper reviews the relevant biophysical theory, mainstream and reso... [more] Physical theory shows that energy is necessary for economic production and therefore growth but the mainstream theory of economic growth, except for specialized resource economics models, pays no attention to the role of energy. This paper reviews the relevant biophysical theory, mainstream and resource economics models of growth, the critiques of mainstream models, and the various mechanisms that can weaken the links between energy and growth. Finally we review the empirical literature that finds that energy used per unit of economic output has declined, but that this is to a large extent due to a shift from poorer quality fuels such as coal to the use of higher quality fuels, and especially electricity. Furthermore, time series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate and energy use Granger causes GDP when additional variables such as energy prices or other production inputs are included. As a result, prospects for further large reductions in energy intensity seem limited.

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• Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist

  Roger Perman, David I. Stern

  The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 02/2003; 47(3).

  The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis - an inverted U-shape relation between various indicators of environmental degradation and income per capita - has become one of the 'stylised facts' of environmental and resource economics. This is despite considerable criticism on both theor... [more] The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis - an inverted U-shape relation between various indicators of environmental degradation and income per capita - has become one of the 'stylised facts' of environmental and resource economics. This is despite considerable criticism on both theoretical and empirical grounds. Cointegration analysis can be used to test the validity of such stylised facts when the data involved contain stochastic trends. In the present paper, we use cointegration analysis to test the EKC hypothesis using a panel dataset of sulfur emissions and GDP data for 74 countries over a span of 31 years. We find that the data is stochastically trending in the time-series dimension. Given this, and interpreting the EKC as a long run equilibrium relationship, support for the hypothesis requires that an appropriate model cointegrates and that sulfur emissions are a concave function of income. Individual and panel cointegration tests cast doubt on the general applicability of the hypothesised relationship. Even when we find cointegration, many of the relationships for individual countries are not concave. The results show that the EKC is a problematic concept, at least in the case of sulfur emissions. Copyright Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2003.

• Global Sulfur Emissions in the 1990s

  David I. Stern

  Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics, Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics. 01/2003;

  I modify the uniform-price auction rules in allowing the seller to ration bidders. This allows me to provide a strategic foundation for underpricing when the seller has an interest in ownership dispersion. Moreover, many of the so-called "collusive-seeming" equilibria disappear.... [more] I modify the uniform-price auction rules in allowing the seller to ration bidders. This allows me to provide a strategic foundation for underpricing when the seller has an interest in ownership dispersion. Moreover, many of the so-called "collusive-seeming" equilibria disappear.
• 4.96

  Impact points

  Hot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands.

  Simon I Hay, David J Rogers, Sarah E Randolph, David I Stern, Jonathan Cox, G Dennis Shanks, Robert W Snow

  Trends in parasitology. 01/2003; 18(12):530-4.

  Climate has a significant impact on malaria incidence and we have predicted that forecast climate changes might cause some modifications to the present global distribution of malaria close to its present boundaries. However, it is quite another matter to attribute recent resurgences of malaria in th... [more] Climate has a significant impact on malaria incidence and we have predicted that forecast climate changes might cause some modifications to the present global distribution of malaria close to its present boundaries. However, it is quite another matter to attribute recent resurgences of malaria in the highlands of East Africa to climate change. Analyses of malaria time-series at such sites have shown that malaria incidence has increased in the absence of co-varying changes in climate. We find the widespread increase in resistance of the malaria parasite to drugs and the decrease in vector control activities to be more likely driving forces behind the malaria resurgence.