Daniel Davis

Publications (10) View all

• Source

  Available from: Daniel Davis

  Article: Delirium is a strong risk factor for dementia in the oldest-old: a population-based cohort study.

  Daniel H J Davis, Graciela Muniz Terrera, Hannah Keage, Terhi Rahkonen, Minna Oinas, Fiona E Matthews, Colm Cunningham, Tuomo Polvikoski, Raimo Sulkava, Alasdair M J Maclullich, Carol Brayne
  [show abstract] [hide abstract]
  ABSTRACT: Recent studies suggest that delirium is associated with risk of dementia and also acceleration of decline in existing dementia. However, previous studies may have been confounded by incomplete ascertainment of cognitive status at baseline. Herein, we used a true population sample to determine if delirium is a risk factor for incident dementia and cognitive decline. We also examined the effect of delirium at the pathological level by determining associations between dementia and neuropathological markers of dementia in patients with and without a history of delirium. The Vantaa 85+ study examined 553 individuals (92% of those eligible) aged ≥85 years at baseline, 3, 5, 8 and 10 years. Brain autopsy was performed in 52%. Fixed and random-effects regression models were used to assess associations between (i) delirium and incident dementia and (ii) decline in Mini-Mental State Examination scores in the whole group. The relationship between dementia and common neuropathological markers (Alzheimer-type, infarcts and Lewy-body) was modelled, stratified by history of delirium. Delirium increased the risk of incident dementia (odds ratio 8.7, 95% confidence interval 2.1-35). Delirium was also associated with worsening dementia severity (odds ratio 3.1, 95% confidence interval 1.5-6.3) as well as deterioration in global function score (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5). In the whole study population, delirium was associated with loss of 1.0 more Mini-Mental State Examination points per year (95% confidence interval 0.11-1.89) than those with no history of delirium. In individuals with dementia and no history of delirium (n = 232), all pathologies were significantly associated with dementia. However, in individuals with delirium and dementia (n = 58), no relationship between dementia and these markers was found. For example, higher Braak stage was associated with dementia when no history of delirium (odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.1-3.5, P = 0.02), but in those with a history of delirium, there was no significant relationship (odds ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.2-6.7, P = 0.85). This trend for odds ratios to be closer to unity in the delirium and dementia group was observed for neuritic amyloid, apolipoprotein ε status, presence of infarcts, α-synucleinopathy and neuronal loss in substantia nigra. These findings are the first to demonstrate in a true population study that delirium is a strong risk factor for incident dementia and cognitive decline in the oldest-old. However, in this study, the relationship did not appear to be mediated by classical neuropathologies associated with dementia.
  Brain 08/2012; 135(Pt 9):2809-16. · 9.46 Impact Factor
• Source

  Available from: Carol Brayne

  Article: Making Alzheimer's and dementia research fit for populations.

  Carol Brayne, Daniel Davis
  The Lancet 10/2012; 380(9851):1441-3. · 38.28 Impact Factor
• Source

  Available from: Carol Brayne

  Article: Patent Foramen Ovale, Ischemic Stroke and Migraine: Systematic Review and Stratified Meta-Analysis of Association Studies.

  Daniel Davis, John Gregson, Peter Willeit, Blossom Stephan, Rustam Al-Shahi Salman, Carol Brayne
  [show abstract] [hide abstract]
  ABSTRACT: Background: Observational data have reported associations between patent foramen ovale (PFO), cryptogenic stroke and migraine. However, randomized trials of PFO closure do not demonstrate a clear benefit either because the underlying association is weaker than previously suggested or because the trials were underpowered. In order to resolve the apparent discrepancy between observational data and randomized trials, we investigated associations between (1) migraine and ischemic stroke, (2) PFO and ischemic stroke, and (3) PFO and migraine. Methods: Eligibility criteria were consistent; including all studies with specifically defined exposures and outcomes unrestricted by language. We focused on studies at lowest risk of bias by stratifying analyses based on methodological design and quantified associations using fixed-effects meta-analysis models. Results: We included 37 studies of 7,686 identified. Compared to reports in the literature as a whole, studies with population-based comparators showed weaker associations between migraine with aura and cryptogenic ischemic stroke in younger women (OR 1.4; 95% CI 0.9-2.0; 1 study), PFO and ischemic stroke (HR 1.6; 95 CI 1.0-2.5; 2 studies; OR 1.3; 95% CI 0.9-1.9; 3 studies), or PFO and migraine (OR 1.0; 95% CI 0.6-1.6; 1 study). It was not possible to look for interactions or effect modifiers. These results are limited by sources of bias within individual studies. Conclusions: The overall pairwise associations between PFO, cryptogenic ischemic stroke and migraine do not strongly suggest a causal role for PFO. Ongoing randomized trials of PFO closure may need larger numbers of participants to detect an overall beneficial effect.
  Neuroepidemiology 10/2012; 40(1):56-67. · 2.31 Impact Factor
• Article: Global trends in antiretroviral resistance in treatment-naive individuals with HIV after rollout of antiretroviral treatment in resource-limited settings: a global collaborative study and meta-regression analysis.

  Ravindra K Gupta, Michael R Jordan, Binta J Sultan, Andrew Hill, Daniel H J Davis, John Gregson, Anthony W Sawyer, Raph L Hamers, Nicaise Ndembi, Deenan Pillay, Silvia Bertagnolio
  [show abstract] [hide abstract]
  ABSTRACT: The emergence and spread of high levels of HIV-1 drug resistance in resource-limited settings where combination antiretroviral treatment has been scaled up could compromise the effectiveness of national HIV treatment programmes. We aimed to estimate changes in the prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance in treatment-naive individuals with HIV since initiation of rollout in resource-limited settings. We did a systematic search for studies and conference abstracts published between January, 2001, and July, 2011, and included additional data from the WHO HIV drug resistance surveillance programme. We assessed the prevalence of drug-resistance mutations in untreated individuals with respect to time since rollout in a series of random-effects meta-regression models. Study-level data were available for 26,102 patients from sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America. We recorded no difference between chronic and recent infection on the prevalence of one or more drug-resistance mutations for any region. East Africa had the highest estimated rate of increase at 29% per year (95% CI 15 to 45; p=0·0001) since rollout, with an estimated prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance at 8 years after rollout of 7·4% (4·3 to 12·7). We recorded an annual increase of 14% (0% to 29%; p=0·054) in southern Africa and a non-significant increase of 3% (-0·9 to 16; p=0·618) in west and central Africa. There was no change in resistance over time in Latin America, and because of much country-level heterogeneity the meta-regression analysis was not appropriate for Asia. With respect to class of antiretroviral, there were substantial increases in resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) in east Africa (36% per year [21 to 52]; p<0·0001) and southern Africa (23% per year [7 to 42]; p=0·0049). No increase was noted for the other drug classes in any region. Our findings suggest a significant increase in prevalence of drug resistance over time since antiretroviral rollout in regions of sub-Saharan Africa; this rise is driven by NNRTI resistance in studies from east and southern Africa. The findings are of concern and draw attention to the need for enhanced surveillance and drug-resistance prevention efforts by national HIV treatment programmes. Nevertheless, estimated levels, although increasing, are not unexpected in view of the large expansion of antiretroviral treatment coverage seen in low-income and middle-income countries--no changes in antiretroviral treatment guidelines are warranted at the moment. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.
  The Lancet 07/2012; 380(9849):1250-8. · 38.28 Impact Factor
• Article: Alzheimer and vascular neuropathological changes associated with different cognitive States in a non-demented sample.

  Blossom C M Stephan, Fiona E Matthews, Brandy Ma, Graciela Muniz, Sally Hunter, Daniel Davis, Ian G McKeith, Gill Foster, Paul G Ince, Carol Brayne
  [show abstract] [hide abstract]
  ABSTRACT: The state between aging with no cognitive impairment and dementia has become a major focus for intervention. The neuropathological and neurobiological correlates of this intermediate state are therefore of considerable interest, particularly from population representative samples. Here we investigate the neuropathological profile associated with different cognitive ability levels measured using strata defined by Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. One hundred and fifty one individuals were stratified into three cognitive groups including: non-, mildly, and moderately impaired at death. Alzheimer's disease, atrophy, and vascular pathologies were investigated. Mild impairment was associated with an increased risk of vascular pathologies including small vessel disease and lacunes. In contrast, the moderately impaired group showed a more extensive pattern of pathology, including tangles and neuritic plaques (entorhinal/hippocampus), atrophy (cortical and hippocampal), and vascular disease (small vessel disease, lacunes, and infarcts). In a population-based sample of older people, MMSE score defined strata are associated with multiple pathologies. The profile of AD and vascular changes becomes more complex with increased cognitive impairment and these changes are likely to constitute a major substrate for age associated cognitive impairment. The results highlight the need for rigorous investigation of both neurodegenerative and vascular risks factors in old age.
  Journal of Alzheimer's disease: JAD 01/2012; 29(2):309-18. · 3.74 Impact Factor