Skills (13)
Research experience
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Oct 2010–
presentResearch: Climate change-induced future water shortages: Clear metrics for decision-making despite uncertainty
University of Birmingham · School of Civil EngineeringUnited Kingdom · BirminghamThe project focuses on creating a high-resolution integrated water resource management decision support tool utilising UKCP09 information and metrics of water shortage risk.
Education
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Oct 2010–
Dec 2013University of Birmingham
Civil engineering and climate change · PhDUnited Kingdom · Birmingham -
Sep 2008–
Aug 2009University of East Anglia
Climate Change · MSc (Disctinction)United Kingdom · Norwich -
Oct 2004–
Jul 2007Cardiff University
Marine Geography · BScUnited Kingdom · Cardiff
Questions and Answers (8) View all
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Answer added in Climate Change147 How bad will things get by 2050 and 2100?no report is 'wrong' or 'right'. Personally I think trying express a complex issue such as climate change into the restraints of classical economics d... [more]
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Answer added in Climate Change147 How bad will things get by 2050 and 2100?David, I wholeheartedly agree. I am currently in the process of writing up a paper about quantifying uncertainties in the impact of climate change imp... [more]
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Answer added in Climate Change147 How bad will things get by 2050 and 2100?the extremely slow cooling rate you talk of here would be absorbed within climatic variability. As Avi says it is the rapidity of change that causes p... [more]
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Answer added in Climate Change147 How bad will things get by 2050 and 2100?Jess (upthread) - interested to know why David's answer was controversial? Accounting for the deep uncertainty involved with climate change is crucial... [more]
Publications (1) View all
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Article: The use of probabilistic weather generator information for climate change adaptation in the UK water sector
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ABSTRACT: Adapting to climate change in the water sector requires abandoning two crucial assumptions. First, that the climate represented in the instrumental record is representative of the future. Instead, future water resource planning cannot be based on old measurements (or sequences derived from attaching change factors to instrumental data) and it should be recognized that stationarity is no longer viable, and, second, that climate modelling can be expected to give precise and certain predictions of the future. Instead, probabilistic projections of the future that take into account the full range of uncertainty should form the basis of robust climate change adaptation plans.As a response to the first assumption, it is suggested that stochastic weather generators represent a particularly useful approach to understanding the impacts of future climate change on water resources at a catchment scale, particularly given the recent release of ‘science-hidden’ tools such as the UKCP09 weather generator. With regards to the second assumption, it is suggested that modelling activity should identify the range of plausible futures to develop probabilities of risk, using those robust decision-making techniques which can gauge the performance of potential adaptation strategies.The best practice for delivering a replicable and practical hydroclimatological impact assessment for UK water resources at a catchment scale is identified, and an hypothetical example is outlined. It is suggested that although augmenting the resilience of water resources to climate change on a catchment scale is dependent on using the correct modelling tools, the robustness of the method with which that information is used to make adaptation decisions is equally as important. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological SocietyMeteorological Applications 01/2012;
