Anuj Mubayi

Publications (35) View all

• Article: Antiretroviral Therapy and Pre-exposure Prophylaxis: Combined Impact on HIV-1 Transmission and Drug Resistance in South Africa.

  Ume L Abbas, Robert Glaubius, Anuj Mubayi, Gregory Hood, John W Mellors
  [show abstract] [hide abstract]
  ABSTRACT: Background. The potential impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with overlapping and non-overlapping antiretrovirals (ARVs) on HIV-1 transmission and drug resistance is unknown.Methods. A detailed mathematical model was used to simulate the epidemiological impact of ART-alone, PrEP-alone, and combined ART+PrEP in South Africa.Results. ART-alone initiated at CD4<200 cells/mm(3) (80% coverage and 96% effectiveness) prevents 20% of HIV-1 infections over 10 years but increases drug resistance prevalence to 6.6%. PrEP-alone (30% coverage and 75% effectiveness) also prevents 21% of infections but with lower resistance prevalence of 0.5%. The ratio of cumulative infections prevented to prevalent drug-resistant cases after 10 years is 7-fold higher for PrEP than for ART. Combined ART+PrEP with overlapping ARVs prevents 35% of infections but increases resistance prevalence to 8.2%, whereas ART+PrEP with non-overlapping ARVs prevents slightly more infections (37%) and reduces resistance prevalence to 7.2%.Conclusions. Combined ART+PrEP is likely to prevent more HIV-1 infections than either strategy alone, but with higher prevalence of drug resistance. ART is predicted to contribute more to resistance than is PrEP. Optimizing both ART and PrEP effectiveness and delivery are the keys to preventing HIV-1 transmission and drug resistance.
  The Journal of Infectious Diseases 04/2013; · 6.41 Impact Factor
• Source

  Available from: Rasheed Hameed

  Dataset: Climate change and influenza: the likelihood of early and severe influenza seasons following warmer than average winters

  Gerardo Chowell, Rasheed Hameed, Matthew Jastrebski, Maryam Khan, Jonathan Meeks, Anuj Mubayi, George Harris
  [show abstract] [hide abstract]
  ABSTRACT: The 2012-13 influenza season had an unusually early and severe start in the US, succeeding the record mild 2011-12 influenza season, which occurred during the fourth warmest winter on record. Our analysis of climate and past US influenza epidemic seasons between 1997-98 to present indicates that warm winters tend to be followed by severe epidemics with early onset, and that these patterns are seen for both influenza A and B. We posit that fewer people are infected with influenza during warm winters, thereby leaving an unnaturally large fraction of susceptible individuals in the population going into the next season, which can lead to early and severe epidemics. In the event of continued global warming, warm winters such as that of 2011-12 are expected to occur more frequently. Our results thus suggest that expedited manufacture and distribution of influenza vaccines after mild winters has the potential to mitigate the severity of future influenza epidemics.
• Article: The role of adaptations in two-strain competition for sylvatic Trypanosoma cruzi transmission.

  Christopher M Kribs-Zaleta, Anuj Mubayi
  [show abstract] [hide abstract]
  ABSTRACT: This study presents a continuous-time model for the sylvatic transmission dynamics of two strains of Trypanosoma cruzi enzootic in North America, in order to study the role that adaptations of each strain to distinct modes of transmission (classical stercorarian transmission on the one hand, and vertical and oral transmission on the other) may play in the competition between the two strains. A deterministic model incorporating contact process saturation predicts competitive exclusion, and reproductive numbers for the infection provide a framework for evaluating the competition in terms of adaptive trade-off between distinct transmission modes. Results highlight the importance of oral transmission in mediating the competition between horizontal (stercorarian) and vertical transmission; its presence as a competing contact process advantages vertical transmission even without adaptation to oral transmission, but such adaptation appears necessary to explain the persistence of (vertically-adapted) T. cruzi IV in raccoons and woodrats in the southeastern United States.
  Journal of Biological Dynamics 03/2012; 6(2):813-35.
• Article: The Effects of Epidemic Dynamics on MHC Diversity

  Nancy Hernandez Ceron, Anuj Mubayi, Jay Taylor
  [show abstract] [hide abstract]
  ABSTRACT: The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is a cluster of genes found in most vertebrate genomes which includes several gene families whose proteins play an important role in the recognition of foreign antigens. Pathogen-mediated selection (PMS) is believed to be responsible for the extraordinary levels of MHC diversity observed in humans and many other vertebrate species. Although there have been many theoretical studies of the relationship between PMS and MHC diversity, most have not incorporated the selective impact of epidemiological dynamics. A new discrete time agent-based model of MHC evolution, which includes epidemic processes, is introduced. In our model, we consider a finite population of diploid hosts which can be infected by one or more pathogen species that differ in transmission rate, virulence and mortality rate. Both the MHC genes of each host individual and the antigen gene sequences of each parasite are represented by binary sequences which can change over time as the result of mutations. Matches between the host's MHC sequence and a parasite's antigen sequence accelerate recovery from an infection.
  Technical report of the Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Institute. 01/2012;
• Book: A cost-based comparison of quarantine strategies for new emerging diseases

  Anuj Mubayi, Christopher Zaleta, Maia Martcheva, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, diseasecontrol, staticpolicy
  01/2011; , ISBN: 1551-0018