- Impact factor2.9
Publications in this journal
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ABSTRACT: The interaction of alternative insurance designs with futures hedging and the purchase of options is examined in this article. A numerical analysis is conducted using a revenue simulation model that incorporates futures prices, basis, and yield variability. Four alternative yield and revenue crop insurance designs are evaluated. Optimal futures and at-the-money put option hedge ratios are derived for expected utility maximizing cotton and soybean producers. Our findings indicate that the alternative insurance designs do influence forward pricing levels. Alternative behavioral assumptions are shown to influence the optimal hedge. Also, yield insurance generally compliments forward pricing while pure revenue insurance generally has a negative effect. Other insurance designs currently offered have an effect on the optimal hedge that falls between the two extremes of yield insurance and pure revenue insurance.Agricultural Systems 02/2013; 75:323-340.
Article: Evaluation of effects of cotton policy changes on land and water use in Uzbekistan: Application of a bio-economic farm model at the level of a water users association[show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Various agricultural policies have been implemented in post-Soviet countries as they move from centrally planned to market economies. In the agriculture sector of Uzbekistan, Central Asia, several reforms have been implemented to increase the operational autonomy of agricultural producers. However, land and water use in agriculture remains directly linked to the centrally regulated cotton production. Still partly resembling the design of the state orders imposed during the planned economy, cotton production policy is used to ensure the stability of national export revenues at the expense of farm incomes. In this paper we argue that modifying the cotton policy may improve the situation with farm incomes and food production, and reduce pressure on water resources, the availability of which in Central Asia is expected to decrease. To conduct an ex ante analysis of cotton policy modifications intended to improve rural incomes, a bio-economic optimization model was developed at the level of a water users association in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. Policy simulations showed that abolishing the current cotton policy would be a more economically attractive option for farmers and also increase grain production rather than various forms of this policy modification. However, abolishing the current cotton policy can present pressure on irrigation water resources as farmers would opt to cultivate water-intensive crops, thus requiring supplemental policies and institutions for sustainable resources use.Agricultural Systems 02/2013; 118.
Article: Economic and environmental impacts of changes in culling parity of cows and diet composition in Japanese beef cow-calf production systemsAgricultural Systems 02/2013; 115:95–103.
Article: Price induced irrigation water saving: Unraveling conflicts and synergies between European agricultural and water policies for a Greek Water District[show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: The 2003 CAP reform considerably affects cropping patterns in European agriculture. At the same time the imperatives of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) are expected to modify irrigation decisions especially in Southern Europe where irrigated agriculture utilizes about 70–80% of total water. The paper uses a nonlinear optimization model that incorporates rain-fed, irrigated and fodder crops to examine the impacts of water pricing and CAP reform on cropping patterns, water use, irrigation technology use and farm returns in the region of Thessaly, Greece. The results indicate that, although there are important trade-offs between water pricing (WFD) and decoupling (CAP reform), water use is more sensitive to water pricing in the post-reform CAP.Agricultural Systems 11/2012; 113:28-38.
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ABSTRACT: This paper presents a strategic planning model for optimal restructuring of a pome (pears and apples) production farm concerning varieties and planting densities. The model decides the optimal investment policy for a given farm, maximizing the net present value of business while dynamically deciding its planting structure along a given time horizon under different ﬁnancing scenarios. The model constraints impose restrictions on the activities to take into account risks and cultural practices. The mathematical model corresponds to a mixed integer linear programming problem, where integer decisions are related to the minimum reconversion land unit and funding requirements. The model was applied to a realistic case study of a typical farm in the ‘‘Alto Valle de Río Negro’’ Argen- tine region. The study was conducted over a 20-year time horizon considering four varieties of apples and ﬁve of pears. The results showed the optimal investment policy for the replacement of varieties under different scenarios, with and without external ﬁnancing. A sensitivity analysis was also performed on some of the most inﬂuential parameters. The model could be used either by governmental agencies to advise private sectors and to develop strategic economic policies or by companies to optimize the busi- ness proﬁt.Agricultural Systems 09/2012;
Agricultural Systems 01/2012;
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ABSTRACT: Process-based crop models are widely used in decision support systems or to assess impacts of climate change on agriculture at different spatial scales. They include crop and/or cultivar-specific parameters that need to be calibrated. However, the availability of reference data is often limited. An alternative is to use yield records from widely available Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). The goal of this study was therefore to propose and test a crop model calibration procedure that makes use of FADN data. To account for the lack of management information in the FADN databases, the concept of ‘Meteorologically Possible Yield’ (MPY) was adopted. This concept is particularly relevant in the context of climate impact studies as MPYs are by definition only driven by climate variability. As an example, the procedure was applied to calibrate the generic crop model CropSyst for a region located in north-eastern Switzerland. Validation using data from a long-term field trial with detailed information on fertilizer applications showed that the proposed procedure provides robust simulation results and is therefore suitable for climate impact studies in regions where detailed experimental data are scarce. In a case study application, the transferability of the local calibration to a site with drier conditions was tested and simulation results for this new site were compared to results obtained using local recalibration. Results showed that predicted yields can differ substantially and the differences can be strongly amplified when impacts of climate change are considered. This highlights the need for adjusting model calibrations to local site conditions and for considering parameter uncertainties in climate impact studies.Agricultural Systems 01/2012; 111:23-33.
Article: A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data.Agricultural Systems 01/2012; 111:85-95.
Article: Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption[show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities.Agricultural Systems 04/2011; 104(2):204-215.
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ABSTRACT: Globally, areas that are equipped for irrigation have almost doubled in size over the past 50 years and further expansions are expected for the future, to meet a growing food demand. For developing countries, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) expects these areas to be expanded by 40 million ha, by 2030. Knowledge about the constraints to irrigation and spatially explicit information about the potential for irrigation expansion, however, are lacking on a global scale. The objective of our study was to explain the global pattern of irrigated croplands and to identify cropping regions where irrigation is likely to be expanded. We accounted for biophysical determinants, such as humidity and slope, mainly at grid-cell level. Socio-economic and governance determinants, for example, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and control of corruption, were primarily considered on a country level, given the limitations in availability of sub-national data and the role of national level governance in irrigation decisions. To identify the variability of the determinants within these two spatial levels, we conducted a multilevel analysis. This is a method employing regression models that explicitly account for hierarchically structured data. Results show significant variability in terms of irrigation. While 56% of the global variance in irrigation occurs between countries, 44% occurs within countries. Our results suggest that it is necessary to consider biophysical, socio-economic and governance information for identifying cropland areas that are likely to be under irrigation. Under current conditions, conversion from rainfed to irrigated cropland is most likely in eastern China, northern Africa, and parts of the Mediterranean region.Agricultural Systems 01/2011; 104(9):703-713.
Article: FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies[show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: The disciplinary nature of most existing farm models as well as the issue specific orientation of most of the studies in agricultural systems research are main reasons for the limited use and re-use of bio-economic modelling for the ex-ante integrated assessment of policy decisions. The objective of this article is to present a bio-economic farm model that is generic and re-usable for different bio-physical and socio-economic contexts, facilitating the linking of micro and macro analysis or to provide detailed analysis of farming systems in a specific region. Model use is illustrated in this paper with an analysis of the impacts of the CAP reform of 2003 for arable and livestock farms in a context of market liberalization. Results from the application of the model to representative farms in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and Midi-Pyrenees (France) shows that CAP reform 2003 under market liberalization will cause substantial substitution of root crops and durum wheat by vegetables and oilseed crops. Much of the set-aside area will be put into production intensifying the existing farming systems. Abolishment of the milk quota system will cause an increase of the average herd size. The average total gross margin of farm types in Flevoland decreases while the average total gross margin of farms in Midi-Pyrenees increases. The results show that the model can simulate arable and livestock farm types of two regions different from a bio-physical and socio-economic point of view and it can deal with a variety of policy instruments. The examples show that the model can be (re-)used as a basis for future research and as a comprehensive tool for future policy analysis.Agricultural Systems 10/2010; 103(8):585-597.
Article: Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates[show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates. We used a crop-soil simulation model (APSIM-Nwheat) to test whether changes in physiological traits, related to early vigor and flowering time, would result in increased yield when compared to traditional cultivars of wheat grown at higher temperatures, elevated atmospheric CO2 and lower rainfall in a Mediterranean climate. Early vigor was simulated by changing four different plant traits. The impact of each trait on grain yield varied with climate scenario and soil type. Higher specific leaf area had minimal effect on yield for the historical climate, but it could increase production in future warmer climates. Increased rooting depth generally had a positive impact on yield, while lower radiation use efficiency and earlier flowering tended to reduce yield. The interaction between these traits was generally positive, and our results indicate that early vigor may improve yield for a range of future climate scenarios. However, in the low rainfall regions, early vigor is unlikely to compensate for rainfall reductions of [greater-or-equal, slanted]30%. Yield gains for early vigor are likely to be larger on sandy loam than on heavier clay soil. The simulation of cultivars differing in flowering time showed that in drier climates earlier flowering cultivars increase potential yield while in warming climates later cultivars increase yield. In conclusion, our analyses suggest that there is great potential for adapting wheat systems to climate change by introducing cultivars with new traits. Our results also show how simulation analyses can assist plant breeders in determining which traits could be important for crop production in future climates.Agricultural Systems 01/2010; 103(3):127-136.
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