Risk Analysis

Publisher: Society for Risk Analysis, Wiley

Current impact factor: 2.50

Impact Factor Rankings

2015 Impact Factor Available summer 2016
2014 Impact Factor 2.502
2013 Impact Factor 1.974
2012 Impact Factor 2.278
2011 Impact Factor 2.366
2010 Impact Factor 2.096
2009 Impact Factor 1.953
2008 Impact Factor 1.831
2007 Impact Factor 1.784
2006 Impact Factor 1.938
2005 Impact Factor 1.51
2004 Impact Factor 1.321
2003 Impact Factor 1.064

Impact factor over time

Impact factor

Additional details

5-year impact 2.54
Cited half-life 9.40
Immediacy index 0.27
Eigenfactor 0.01
Article influence 1.00
Other titles Risk analysis (Online), Risk analysis
ISSN 1539-6924
OCLC 45175725
Material type Document, Periodical, Internet resource
Document type Internet Resource, Computer File, Journal / Magazine / Newspaper

Publisher details


  • Pre-print
    • Author can archive a pre-print version
  • Post-print
    • Author cannot archive a post-print version
  • Restrictions
    • 2 years embargo
  • Conditions
    • Some journals have separate policies, please check with each journal directly
    • On author's personal website, institutional repositories, arXiv, AgEcon, PhilPapers, PubMed Central, RePEc or Social Science Research Network
    • Author's pre-print may not be updated with Publisher's Version/PDF
    • Author's pre-print must acknowledge acceptance for publication
    • Non-Commercial
    • Publisher's version/PDF cannot be used
    • Publisher source must be acknowledged with citation
    • Must link to publisher version with set statement (see policy)
    • If OnlineOpen is available, BBSRC, EPSRC, MRC, NERC and STFC authors, may self-archive after 12 months
    • If OnlineOpen is available, AHRC and ESRC authors, may self-archive after 24 months
    • Publisher last contacted on 07/08/2014
    • This policy is an exception to the default policies of 'Wiley'
  • Classification

Publications in this journal

  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Public session access to diving boards is one of the stepping stones for those wishing to develop their skills in the sport of diving. The extent to which certain dive forms are considered risky (forward/backward/rotations) and therefore not permitted is a matter for local pool managers. In Study 1, 20 public pools with diving facilities responded to a U.K. survey concerning their diving regulation policy and related injury incidence in the previous year. More restrictive regulation of dive forms was not associated with a decrease in injuries (rs [42] = -0.20, p = 0.93). In Study 2, diving risk perception and attitudes towards regulation were compared between experienced club divers (N = 22) and nondivers (N = 22). Risk was perceived to be lower for those with experience, and these people favored less regulation. The findings are interpreted in terms of a risk thermostat model, where for complex physical performance activities such as diving, individuals may exercise caution in proportion to their ability and previous experience of success and failure related to the activity. Though intuitively appealing, restrictive regulation of public pool diving may be ineffective in practice because risk is not simplistically associated with dive forms, and divers are able to respond flexibly to risk by exercising caution where appropriate.
    Risk Analysis 11/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12523
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: This article describes inconsistencies between health risk analyses that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses to support its decisions on primary National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), and in the associated Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) that accompany each NAAQS rulemaking. Quantitative risk estimates are prepared during the NAAQS-setting deliberations using inputs derived from statistical associations between measured pollutant concentrations and health effects. The resulting risk estimates are not directly used to set a NAAQS, but incorporated into a broader evidence-based rationale for the standard that is intended to demonstrate conformity with the statutory requirement that primary NAAQS protect the public health with a margin of safety. In a separate process, EPA staff rely on the same risk calculations to prepare estimates of the benefits of the rule that are reported in its RIA for the standard. Although NAAQS rules and their RIAs are released simultaneously, the rationales used to set the NAAQS have become inconsistent with their RIAs' estimates of benefits, with very large fractions of RIAs' risk-reduction estimates being attributed to populations living in areas that will already be attaining the respective NAAQS. This article explains the source of this inconsistency and provides a quantitative example based on the 2012 revision of the fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) primary NAAQS. This article also demonstrates how this inconsistency is amplified when criteria pollutant co-benefits are calculated in RIAs for non-NAAQS rules, using quantitative examples from the 2011 Mercury and Air Toxics Standards and the currently proposed Clean Power Plan.
    Risk Analysis 11/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12517
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly.
    Risk Analysis 11/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12505
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Calls for emergency right-to-know in the 1980s, and, in the 1990s, risk management planning, motivated U.S. chemical manufacturing and refining industries to operationalize a three-pronged approach to risk minimization and communication: reflective management to increase legitimacy, operational safety programs to raise trust, and community engagement designed to facilitate citizens' emergency response efficacy. To assess these management, operational, and communication initiatives, communities (often through Local Emergency Planning Committees) monitored the impact of such programs. In 2012, the fourth phase of a quasi-longitudinal study was conducted to assess the effectiveness of operational change and community outreach in one bellwether community. This study focuses on legitimacy, trust, and response efficacy to suggest that an industry can earn legitimacy credits by raising its safety and environmental impact standards, by building trust via that change, and by communicating emergency response messages to near residents to raise their response efficacy. As part of its campaign to demonstrate its concern for community safety through research, planning, and implementation of safe operations and viable emergency response systems, this industry uses a simple narrative of risk/emergency response-shelter-in-place-communicated by a spokes-character: Wally Wise Guy.
    Risk Analysis 10/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12504
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: In recent years, the U.S. commercial airline industry has achieved unprecedented levels of safety, with the statistical risk associated with U.S. commercial aviation falling to 0.003 fatalities per 100 million passengers. But decades of research on organizational learning show that success often breeds complacency and failure inspires improvement. With accidents as rare events, can the airline industry continue safety advancements? This question is complicated by the complex system in which the industry operates where chance combinations of multiple factors contribute to what are largely probabilistic (rather than deterministic) outcomes. Thus, some apparent successes are realized because of good fortune rather than good processes, and this research intends to bring attention to these events, the near-misses. The processes that create these near-misses could pose a threat if multiple contributing factors combine in adverse ways without the intervention of good fortune. Yet, near-misses (if recognized as such) can, theoretically, offer a mechanism for continuing safety improvements, above and beyond learning gleaned from observable failure. We test whether or not this learning is apparent in the airline industry. Using data from 1990 to 2007, fixed effects Poisson regressions show that airlines learn from accidents (their own and others), and from one category of near-misses-those where the possible dangers are salient. Unfortunately, airlines do not improve following near-miss incidents when the focal event has no clear warnings of significant danger. Therefore, while airlines need to and can learn from certain near-misses, we conclude with recommendations for improving airline learning from all near-misses.
    Risk Analysis 10/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12503
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The cost of an uncontrolled incursion of invasive alien species (IAS) arising from undetected entry through ports can be substantial, and knowledge of port-specific risks is needed to help allocate limited surveillance resources. Quantifying the establishment likelihood of such an incursion requires quantifying the ability of a species to enter, establish, and spread. Estimation of the approach rate of IAS into ports provides a measure of likelihood of entry. Data on the approach rate of IAS are typically sparse, and the combinations of risk factors relating to country of origin and port of arrival diverse. This presents challenges to making formal statistical inference on establishment likelihood. Here we demonstrate how these challenges can be overcome with judicious use of mixed-effects models when estimating the incursion likelihood into Australia of the European (Apis mellifera) and Asian (A. cerana) honeybees, along with the invasive parasites of biosecurity concern they host (e.g., Varroa destructor). Our results demonstrate how skewed the establishment likelihood is, with one-tenth of the ports accounting for 80% or more of the likelihood for both species. These results have been utilized by biosecurity agencies in the allocation of resources to the surveillance of maritime ports.
    Risk Analysis 10/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12476
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Our objective was to evaluate the effect that complexity in the form of different levels of spatial, population, and contact heterogeneity has in the predictions of a mechanistic epidemic model. A model that simulates the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases between animal populations was developed. Sixteen scenarios of foot-and-mouth disease infection in cattle were analyzed, involving combinations of the following factors: multiple production-types (PT) with heterogeneous contact and population structure versus single PT, random versus actual spatial distribution of population units, high versus low infectivity, and no vaccination versus preemptive vaccination. The epidemic size and duration was larger for scenarios with multiple PT versus single PT. Ignoring the actual unit locations did not affect the epidemic size in scenarios with multiple PT/high infectivity, but resulted in smaller epidemic sizes in scenarios using multiple PT/low infectivity. In conclusion, when modeling fast-spreading epidemics, knowing the actual locations of population units may not be as relevant as collecting information on population and contact heterogeneity. In contrast, both population and spatial heterogeneity might be important to model slower spreading epidemic diseases. Our findings can be used to inform data collection and modeling efforts to inform health policy and planning.
    Risk Analysis 10/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12482
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Unconventional gas development (UGD) is growing rapidly in the United States. Drawing on insights from risk perception and risk governance theories and recent public opinion surveys, we find that UGD is an emerging technology that is likely to be perceived as risky, even though objective risk assessments suggest that risks are low and controllable through best risk management practices. Perceived risk varies significantly depending on the state and locality but perceptions of risk appear to be increasing as the technology is used more widely in the United States and as organized opponents of the technology intensify their efforts. Risk perceptions are attenuated somewhat because of the perceived benefits of UGD and compensation schemes for individuals and communities. The types of triggering events necessary for large-scale social amplification and stigmatization have not yet occurred but awareness of UGD is growing and organized opposition has been sufficient to cause prohibitions of UGD in some U.S. states and localities. Additional directions for social science research on public reactions to UGD are recommended.
    Risk Analysis 10/2015; 35(10). DOI:10.1111/risa.12512
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example.
    Risk Analysis 10/2015; 35(10):1892-1910. DOI:10.1111/risa.12511

  • Risk Analysis 10/2015; 35(10):1766-1769. DOI:10.1111/risa.12520
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been labeled contaminants of concern due to their carcinogenic potential, insufficient toxicological data, environmental ubiquity, and inconsistencies in the composition of environmental mixtures. The Environmental Protection Agency is reevaluating current methods for assessing the toxicity of PAHs, including the assumption of toxic additivity in mixtures. This study was aimed at testing mixture interactions through in vitro cell culture experimentation, and modeling the toxicity using quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR). Clone-9 rat liver cells were used to analyze cellular proliferation, viability, and genotoxicity of 15 PAHs in single doses and binary mixtures. Tests revealed that many mixtures have nonadditive toxicity, but display varying mixture effects depending on the mixture composition. Many mixtures displayed antagonism, similar to other published studies. QSARs were then developed using the genetic function approximation algorithm to predict toxic activity both in single PAH congeners and in binary mixtures. Effective concentrations inhibiting 50% of the cell populations were modeled, with R(2) = 0.90, 0.99, and 0.84, respectively. The QSAR mixture algorithms were then adjusted to account for the observed mixture interactions as well as the mixture composition (ratios) to assess the feasibility of QSARs for mixtures. Based on these results, toxic addition is improbable and therefore environmental PAH mixtures are likely to see nonadditive responses when complex interactions occur between components. Furthermore, QSAR may be a useful tool to help bridge these data gaps surrounding the assessment of human health risks that are associated with PAH exposures.
    Risk Analysis 09/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12475
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: This article presents research aimed at developing and testing an online, multistakeholder decision-aiding framework for informing multiattribute risk management choices associated with energy development and climate change. The framework was designed to provide necessary background information and facilitate internally consistent choices, or choices that are in line with users’ prioritized objectives. In order to test different components of the decision-aiding framework, a six-part, 2 × 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conducted, yielding eight treatment scenarios. The three factors included: (1) whether or not users could construct their own alternatives; (2) the level of detail regarding the composition of alternatives users would evaluate; and (3) the way in which a final choice between users’ own constructed (or highest-ranked) portfolio and an internally consistent portfolio was presented. Participants’ self-reports revealed the framework was easy to use and providing an opportunity to develop one's own risk-management alternatives (Factor 1) led to the highest knowledge gains. Empirical measures showed the internal consistency of users’ decisions across all treatments to be lower than expected and confirmed that providing information about alternatives’ composition (Factor 2) resulted in the least internally consistent choices. At the same time, those users who did not develop their own alternatives and were not shown detailed information about the composition of alternatives believed their choices to be the most internally consistent. These results raise concerns about how the amount of information provided and the ability to construct alternatives may inversely affect users’ real and perceived internal consistency.
    Risk Analysis 09/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12481