Risk Analysis

Publisher: Society for Risk Analysis, Wiley

Journal description

Current impact factor: 1.97

Impact Factor Rankings

2015 Impact Factor Available summer 2015
2013 / 2014 Impact Factor 1.974
2012 Impact Factor 2.278
2011 Impact Factor 2.366
2010 Impact Factor 2.096
2009 Impact Factor 1.953
2008 Impact Factor 1.831
2007 Impact Factor 1.784
2006 Impact Factor 1.938
2005 Impact Factor 1.51
2004 Impact Factor 1.321
2003 Impact Factor 1.064

Impact factor over time

Impact factor

Additional details

5-year impact 2.47
Cited half-life 8.50
Immediacy index 0.78
Eigenfactor 0.01
Article influence 0.86
Other titles Risk analysis (Online), Risk analysis
ISSN 1539-6924
OCLC 45175725
Material type Document, Periodical, Internet resource
Document type Internet Resource, Computer File, Journal / Magazine / Newspaper

Publisher details


  • Pre-print
    • Author can archive a pre-print version
  • Post-print
    • Author cannot archive a post-print version
  • Restrictions
    • 2 years embargo
  • Conditions
    • Some journals have separate policies, please check with each journal directly
    • On author's personal website, institutional repositories, arXiv, AgEcon, PhilPapers, PubMed Central, RePEc or Social Science Research Network
    • Author's pre-print may not be updated with Publisher's Version/PDF
    • Author's pre-print must acknowledge acceptance for publication
    • Non-Commercial
    • Publisher's version/PDF cannot be used
    • Publisher source must be acknowledged with citation
    • Must link to publisher version with set statement (see policy)
    • If OnlineOpen is available, BBSRC, EPSRC, MRC, NERC and STFC authors, may self-archive after 12 months
    • If OnlineOpen is available, AHRC and ESRC authors, may self-archive after 24 months
    • Publisher last contacted on 07/08/2014
    • This policy is an exception to the default policies of 'Wiley'
  • Classification
    ​ yellow

Publications in this journal

  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Reducing the risk of introduction to North America of the invasive Asian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar asiatica Vnukovskij and L. d. japonica [Motschulsky]) on international maritime vessels involves two tactics: (1) vessels that wish to arrive in Canada or the United States and have visited any Asian port that is subject to regulation during designated times must obtain a predeparture inspection certificate from an approved entity; and (2) vessels with a certificate may be subjected to an additional inspection upon arrival. A decision support tool is described here with which the allocation of inspection resources at North American ports can be partitioned among multiple vessels according to estimates of the potential onboard Asian gypsy moth population and estimates of the onboard larval emergence pattern. The decision support tool assumes that port inspection is uniformly imperfect at the Asian ports and that each visit to a regulated port has potential for the vessel to be contaminated with gypsy moth egg masses. The decision support tool uses a multigenerational phenology model to estimate the potential onboard population of egg masses by calculating the temporal intersection between the dates of port visits to regulated ports and the simulated oviposition pattern in each port. The phenological development of the onboard population is simulated each day of the vessel log until the vessel arrives at the port being protected from introduction. Multiple independent simulations are used to create a probability distribution of the size and timing of larval emergence. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12474
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The concepts of risk, safety, and security have received substantial academic interest. Several assumptions exist about their nature and relation. Besides academic use, the words risk, safety, and security are frequent in ordinary language, for example, in media reporting. In this article, we analyze the concepts of risk, safety, and security, and their relation, based on empirical observation of their actual everyday use. The "behavioral profiles" of the nouns risk, safety, and security and the adjectives risky, safe, and secure are coded and compared regarding lexical and grammatical contexts. The main findings are: (1) the three nouns risk, safety, and security, and the two adjectives safe and secure, have widespread use in different senses, which will make any attempt to define them in a single unified manner extremely difficult; (2) the relationship between the central risk terms is complex and only partially confirms the distinctions commonly made between the terms in specialized terminology; (3) whereas most attempts to define risk in specialized terminology have taken the term to have a quantitative meaning, nonquantitative meanings dominate in everyday language, and numerical meanings are rare; and (4) the three adjectives safe, secure, and risky are frequently used in comparative form. This speaks against interpretations that would take them as absolute, all-or-nothing concepts. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12464
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    ABSTRACT: Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12457
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    ABSTRACT: Ongoing challenges to understanding how hazard exposure and disaster experiences influence perceived risk lead us to ask: Is seeing believing? We approach risk perception by attending to two components of overall risk perception: perceived probability of an event occurring and perceived consequences if an event occurs. Using a two-period longitudinal data set collected from a survey of homeowners living in a fire-prone area of Colorado, we find that study participants' initial high levels of perceived probability and consequences of a wildfire did not change substantially after extreme wildfire events in the intervening years. More specifically, perceived probability of a wildfire changed very little, whereas the perceived consequences of a wildfire went up a bit. In addition, models of risk perceptions show that the two components of overall risk perception are correlated with somewhat different factors, and experience is not found to be one of the strongest correlates with perceived risk. These results reflect the importance of distinguishing the components of overall risk and modeling them separately to facilitate additional insights into the complexities of risk perceptions, factors related to perceived risk, and change in risk perceptions over time. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12465
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Research indicates that uncertainty in science news stories affects public assessment of risk and uncertainty. However, the form in which uncertainty is presented may also affect people's risk and uncertainty assessments. For example, a news story that features an expert discussing both what is known and what is unknown about a topic may convey a different form of scientific uncertainty than a story that features two experts who hold conflicting opinions about the status of scientific knowledge of the topic, even when both stories contain the same information about knowledge and its boundaries. This study focuses on audience uncertainty and risk perceptions regarding the emerging science of nanotechnology by manipulating whether uncertainty in a news story about potential risks is attributed to expert sources in the form of caveats (individual uncertainty) or conflicting viewpoints (collective uncertainty). Results suggest that the type of uncertainty portrayed does not impact audience feelings of uncertainty or risk perceptions directly. Rather, the presentation of the story influences risk perceptions only among those who are highly deferent to scientific authority. Implications for risk communication theory and practice are discussed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12462
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    ABSTRACT: Our reconstructed historical work scenarios incorporating a vintage 1950s locomotive can assist in better understanding the historical asbestos exposures associated with past maintenance and repairs and fill a literature data gap. Air sampling data collected during the exposure scenarios and analyzed by NIOSH 7400 (PCM) and 7402 (PCME) methodologies show personal breathing zone asbestiform fiber exposures were below the current OSHA exposure limits for the eight-hour TWA permissible exposure limit (PEL) of 0.1 f/cc (range <0.007-0.064 PCME f/cc) and the 30-minute short-term excursion limit (EL) of 1.0 f/cc (range <0.045-0.32 PCME f/cc) and orders of magnitude below historic OSHA PEL and ACGIH TLVs. Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) results demonstrate that the 95th percentile point estimate falls into an AIHA exposure category 3 or 4 as compared to the current PEL and category 1 when compared to the historic PEL. BDA results demonstrate that bystander exposures would be classified as category 0. Our findings were also significantly below the published calcium magnesium insulations exposure range of 2.5 to 7.5 f/cc reported for historic work activities of pipefitters, mechanics, and boilermakers. Diesel-electric locomotive pipe systems were typically insulated with a woven tape lagging that may have been chrysotile asbestos and handled, removed, and reinstalled during repair and maintenance activities. We reconstructed historical work scenarios containing asbestos woven tape pipe lagging that have not been characterized in the published literature. The historical work scenarios were conducted by a retired railroad pipefitter with 37 years of experience working with materials and locomotives. © 2015 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12458
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    ABSTRACT: In this article, we develop statistical models to predict the number and geographic distribution of fires caused by earthquake ground motion and tsunami inundation in Japan. Using new, uniquely large, and consistent data sets from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, we fitted three types of models-generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), and boosted regression trees (BRTs). This is the first time the latter two have been used in this application. A simple conceptual framework guided identification of candidate covariates. Models were then compared based on their out-of-sample predictive power, goodness of fit to the data, ease of implementation, and relative importance of the framework concepts. For the ground motion data set, we recommend a Poisson GAM; for the tsunami data set, a negative binomial (NB) GLM or NB GAM. The best models generate out-of-sample predictions of the total number of ignitions in the region within one or two. Prefecture-level prediction errors average approximately three. All models demonstrate predictive power far superior to four from the literature that were also tested. A nonlinear relationship is apparent between ignitions and ground motion, so for GLMs, which assume a linear response-covariate relationship, instrumental intensity was the preferred ground motion covariate because it captures part of that nonlinearity. Measures of commercial exposure were preferred over measures of residential exposure for both ground motion and tsunami ignition models. This may vary in other regions, but nevertheless highlights the value of testing alternative measures for each concept. Models with the best predictive power included two or three covariates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12455
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: To improve U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) dose-response (DR) assessments for noncarcinogens and for nonlinear mode of action (MOA) carcinogens, the 2009 NRC Science and Decisions Panel recommended that the adjustment-factor approach traditionally applied to these endpoints should be replaced by a new default assumption that both endpoints have linear-no-threshold (LNT) population-wide DR relationships. The panel claimed this new approach is warranted because population DR is LNT when any new dose adds to a background dose that explains background levels of risk, and/or when there is substantial interindividual heterogeneity in susceptibility in the exposed human population. Mathematically, however, the first claim is either false or effectively meaningless and the second claim is false. Any dose-and population-response relationship that is statistically consistent with an LNT relationship may instead be an additive mixture of just two quasi-threshold DR relationships, which jointly exhibit low-dose S-shaped, quasi-threshold nonlinearity just below the lower end of the observed "linear" dose range. In this case, LNT extrapolation would necessarily overestimate increased risk by increasingly large relative magnitudes at diminishing values of above-background dose. The fact that chemically-induced apoptotic cell death occurs by unambiguously nonlinear, quasi-threshold DR mechanisms is apparent from recent data concerning this quintessential toxicity endpoint. The 2009 NRC Science and Decisions Panel claims and recommendations that default LNT assumptions be applied to DR assessment for noncarcinogens and nonlinear MOA carcinogens are therefore not justified either mathematically or biologically. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12460
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12473
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    ABSTRACT: Coastal areas typically have high social and economic development and are likely to suffer huge losses due to tropical cyclones. These cyclones have a great impact on the transportation network, but there have been a limited number of studies about tropical-cyclone-induced transportation network functional damages, especially in Asia. This study develops an innovative measurement and analytical tool for highway network functional damage and risk in the context of a tropical cyclone, with which we explored the critical spatial characteristics of tropical cyclones with regard to functional damage to a highway network by developing linear regression models to quantify their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the network's functional risk and calculated the return periods under different damage levels. In our analyses, we consider the real-world highway network of Hainan province, China. Our results illustrate that the most important spatial characteristics were location (in particular, the midlands), travel distance, landfalling status, and origin coordinates. However, the trajectory direction did not obviously affect the results. Our analyses indicate that the highway network of Hainan province may suffer from a 90% functional damage scenario every 4.28 years. These results have critical policy implications for the transport sector in reference to emergency planning and disaster reduction.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12463
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    ABSTRACT: Epidemiological miner cohort data used to estimate lung cancer risks related to occupational radon exposure often lack cohort-wide information on exposure to tobacco smoke, a potential confounder and important effect modifier. We have developed a method to project data on smoking habits from a case-control study onto an entire cohort by means of a Monte Carlo resampling technique. As a proof of principle, this method is tested on a subcohort of 35,084 former uranium miners employed at the WISMUT company (Germany), with 461 lung cancer deaths in the follow-up period 1955–1998. After applying the proposed imputation technique, a biologically-based carcinogenesis model is employed to analyze the cohort's lung cancer mortality data. A sensitivity analysis based on a set of 200 independent projections with subsequent model analyses yields narrow distributions of the free model parameters, indicating that parameter values are relatively stable and independent of individual projections. This technique thus offers a possibility to account for unknown smoking habits, enabling us to unravel risks related to radon, to smoking, and to the combination of both.
    Risk Analysis 08/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12472
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    ABSTRACT: Public support for nuclear power generation has decreased in Japan since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in March 2011. This study examines how the factors influencing public acceptance of nuclear power changed after this event. The influence factors examined are perceived benefit, perceived risk, trust in the managing bodies, and pro-environmental orientation (i.e., new ecological paradigm). This study is based on cross-sectional data collected from two online nationwide surveys: one conducted in November 2009, before the nuclear accident, and the other in October 2011, after the accident. This study's target respondents were residents of Aomori, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures in the Tohoku region of Japan, as these areas were the epicenters of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the locations of nuclear power stations. After the accident, trust in the managing bodies was found to have a stronger influence on perceived risk, and pro-environmental orientation was found to have a stronger influence on trust in the managing bodies; however, perceived benefit had a weaker positive influence on public acceptance. We also discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 07/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12447
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    ABSTRACT: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) characterized and prioritized the physical cross-border threats and hazards to the nation stemming from terrorism, market-driven illicit flows of people and goods (illegal immigration, narcotics, funds, counterfeits, and weaponry), and other nonmarket concerns (movement of diseases, pests, and invasive species). These threats and hazards pose a wide diversity of consequences with very different combinations of magnitudes and likelihoods, making it very challenging to prioritize them. This article presents the approach that was used at DHS to arrive at a consensus regarding the threats and hazards that stand out from the rest based on the overall risk they pose. Due to time constraints for the decision analysis, it was not feasible to apply multiattribute methodologies like multiattribute utility theory or the analytic hierarchy process. Using a holistic approach was considered, such as the deliberative method for ranking risks first published in this journal. However, an ordinal ranking alone does not indicate relative or absolute magnitude differences among the risks. Therefore, the use of the deliberative method for ranking risks is not sufficient for deciding whether there is a material difference between the top-ranked and bottom-ranked risks, let alone deciding what the stand-out risks are. To address this limitation of ordinal rankings, the deliberative method for ranking risks was augmented by adding an additional step to transform the ordinal ranking into a ratio scale ranking. This additional step enabled the selection of stand-out risks to help prioritize further analysis. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 07/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12456
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    ABSTRACT: Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel-induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step-by-step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN-based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel-induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause-effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 07/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12448
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    ABSTRACT: Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
    Risk Analysis 07/2015; DOI:10.1111/risa.12453