Population Research and Policy Review (POPUL RES POLICY REV)

Publications in this journal

• Article: Attitudes about Children and Fertility Limitation Behavior.

  Sarah R Brauner-Otto
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  ABSTRACT: The relationship between attitudes and individual behavior is at the core of virtually all demographic theories of fertility. This paper extends our understanding of fertility behavior by exploring how psychic costs of childbearing and contraceptive use, conceptualized as attitudes about children and contraception, are related to the transition from high fertility and little contraceptive use to lower fertility and wide spread contraceptive use. Using data from rural Nepal I examine models of the relationship between multiple, setting-specific attitudes about children and contraception and the hazard of contraceptive use to limit childbearing. Specific attitude measures attempt to capture the relative value of children versus consumer goods, the religiously based value of children, and the acceptability of contraceptive use. Findings demonstrate that multiple measures of women's attitudes about children and contraception were all independently related to their fertility limitation behavior.
  Population Research and Policy Review 02/2013; 32(1):1-24.
• Article: A Closer Look at the Second Demographic Transition in the U.S.: Evidence of Bidirectionality from a Cohort Perspective (1982-2006).

  Jennifer B Kane
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  ABSTRACT: Second demographic transition (SDT) theory posits that increased individualism and secularization have contributed to low fertility in Europe, but very little work has directly tested the salience of SDT theory to fertility trends in the U.S. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative cohort of women who were followed throughout their reproductive years (NLSY79), this study examines the role of several key indicators of the second demographic transition (secularization, egalitarianism, religious affiliation, and female participation in the labor market) on fertility behavior over time (1982-2006). Analyses employ Poisson estimation, logistic regression, and cross-lagged structural equation models to observe unidirectional and bidirectional relationships over the reproductive life course. Findings lend support to the relevance of SDT theory in the U.S. but also provide evidence of "American bipolarity" which distinguishes the U.S. from the European case. Furthermore, analyses document the reciprocal nature of these relationships over time which has implications for how we understand these associations at the individual-level.
  Population Research and Policy Review 02/2013; 32(1):47-80.
• Article: Disability Trends by Marital Status among Older Americans, 1997-2010: An Examination by Gender and Race

  Hui Liu, Zhenmei Zhang
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  ABSTRACT: This study examined disability trends by marital status among older adults aged 60 and above from 1997 to 2010 in the U.S. We addressed two questions: (1) Has the relationship between marital status and disability changed over the study period? (2) Can the trends be explained by changes in socioeconomic status? We paid special attention to potential gender and racial variations in these patterns. Data were drawn from the National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) 1997–2010 (N = 170,446). Consistent with previous literature, our results from logistic regression models suggested that the married had lower odds of reporting either ADL or IADL disability than the unmarried groups over the entire study period across all gender and racial subgroups examined. More importantly, we found that the ADL disability gaps of widowed white men, widowed white women, and divorced white women in comparison to their married white counterparts decreased from 1997 to 2010; the IADL disability gaps of widowed white men and widowed black women in comparison to their married counterparts also decreased, while the IADL disability gap between never married white men and married white men increased over time. Socioeconomic status could explain little of these trends. These results, coupled with the growth of unmarried elderly population, suggest that the national long-term care system needs to get prepared for the potentially significant increase in demand for their services among the vulnerable unmarried elderly (especially blacks) and provide affordable and adequate services to those in need.
  Population Research and Policy Review 01/2013; 32(1):103-127.
• Article: Indeterminate Responses to Attitudinal Questions About Intimate Partner Violence Against Women in Rural Bangladesh.

  Kathryn M Yount, Nafisa Halim, Sara Head, Sidney Ruth Schuler
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  ABSTRACT: Using data from 165 participants in a survey experiment in six Ban-gladeshi villages, we explored the levels and correlates of women's indeterminate responses to a five-part attitudinal question on intimate partner violence (IPV) against women from the 2007 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Over 80 % had indeterminate responses to all five parts of the question. Indeterminate responses included silence or initial non-response (53-58 %), misunderstanding the question (30-37 %), and conditional opinions (7-13 %). The percentages of women who justified IPV were lower when indeterminate responses were permitted (7-12 %) than when they were not (37-57 %). Older women (≥26 years) with less schooling (≤2 grades) whose husbands were older (≥36 years), had less schooling (≤8 grades), and were at least 7 years older than the respondent often had higher odds of giving indeterminate responses. Husbands' attributes and spousal age gaps were most consistently associated with women's indeterminate responses. Latent power, or fears of expressing transgressive views, may underlie women's indeterminate responses to attitudinal questions about IPV against women. Recommendations for further research are discussed.
  Population Research and Policy Review 12/2012; 31(6):797-830.
• Article: INDIA'S 'MISSING WOMEN' AND MEN'S SEXUAL RISK BEHAVIOR.

  Scott J South, Katherine Trent, Sunita Bose
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  ABSTRACT: Although scholars and policymakers have long been concerned with the "missing women" of India, little rigorous research has examined the consequences of India's sex ratio imbalance for young men's sexual risk behavior and reproductive health. We use data from the third wave of India's 2005-2006 National Family and Health Survey to examine the influence of the community female-to-male sex ratio at ages 10 to 39 on men's likelihood of marrying early in life, of engaging in premarital, multi-partnered, and commercial sex, and of contracting a sexually-transmitted disease (STD). We estimate logistic regression models that control for respondents' demographic and socioeconomic status and that adjust for the clustering of observations within communities. Net of the effects of other characteristics, the female-to-male sex ratio is positively and significantly associated with the likelihood that men marry prior to age 18 and inversely and significantly associated with the odds that men have had intercourse with a commercial sex worker. However, no significant net associations are observed between the sex ratio and the other outcomes. Education, wealth, religious affiliation, caste, and geographic region emerge as significant predictors of Indian men's sexual risk behaviors.
  Population Research and Policy Review 12/2012; 31(6):777-795.
• Article: A Sudden Transition: Household Changes for Middle Aged U.S. Women in the Twentieth Century.

  Emily R Merchant, Brian Gratton, Myron Gutmann
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  ABSTRACT: Between 1900 and 1990, the percentage of U.S. white women aged 40-69 living with a child of their own fell from 63% to 27%, with three fourths of that change occurring between 1940 and 1960. Historical census data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics allow an historical and contemporary examination of co-residence patterns among these women. Analysis reveals three eras: a system of co-residence in the early twentieth century, a sudden transition toward separate households at mid century, and the maintenance of that separate household system thereafter. The scholarly literature features cultural, demographic, and economic explanations for the long-term decline in co-residence, but has given little attention to the rapid mid-century shift. Analysis of IPUMS data confirms the long-term effects of declines in mortality and fertility, and concomitant declines in the age of mothers at last birth, but also points to a sharp drop in the age of children at marriage in the mid-twentieth century. These factors raised the potential for the formation of separate households, but this historical era was also a propitious one for separation: income gains for young workers were unprecedented, the labor force participation of married women rose, and immigration fell. Analysis of PSID data from 1968 to 2009 confirms the salience of children's socioeconomic circumstances-particularly their marriage and employment prospects but also the increasing availability of higher education-in maintaining the separate household system. While the data analyzed allow only inferences about cultural factors, the resiliency of the new household system, even in periods of economic decline, suggests that it is now likely buttressed by strong normative views.
  Population Research and Policy Review 10/2012; 31(5):703-726.
• Article: Living Arrangements and the Well-being of Single Mothers in Japan.

  James M Raymo, Yanfei Zhou
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  ABSTRACT: The goal of this paper is to evaluate the extent to which the well-being of single mothers in Japan is related to coresidence with other adults. Using data from a representative survey of households headed by single mothers, we examine two measures of subjective well-being: perceived economic circumstances and self-rated health. One-fourth of the single mothers surveyed were coresiding with another adult(s) and it is clear that these women fare significantly better than their non-coresiding counterparts on both measures of well-being. Net of several theoretically relevant sociodemographic, family, and employment characteristics, single mothers living with others were significantly less likely to report somewhat difficult/difficult economic circumstances or fair/poor health. Efforts to account for potential endogeneity between well-being and living arrangements suggested that self-rated health, but not subjective economic well-being, is related to selection into coresidence. Single mothers in fair/poor health appear more likely to coreside with others and, accounting for this selection, intergenerational coresidence appears to be very beneficial for self-rated health. We discuss the implications of these findings for processes of stratification in Japan in light of the limited public income support available to single mothers.
  Population Research and Policy Review 10/2012; 31(5):727-749.
• Article: The Decline of Smoking among Female Birth Cohorts in China in the 20(th) Century: A Case of Arrested Diffusion?

  Albert I Hermalin, Deborah S Lowry
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  ABSTRACT: The smoking prevalence by age of women in China is distinct from most other countries in showing more frequent smoking among older women than younger. Using newly developed birth cohort histories of smoking, the authors demonstrate that although over one quarter of women born 1908-1912 smoked, levels of smoking declined across successive cohorts. This occurred despite high rates of smoking by men and the wide availability of cigarettes. The analysis shows how this pattern is counter to that predicted by the leading theoretical perspectives on the diffusion of smoking and suggests that it arose out of a mix of Confucian traditions relating to gender and the socio-economic and political events early in the 20(th) century which placed emerging women's identities in conflict with national identities. That a similar pattern of smoking is evident in Japan and Korea, two countries with strong cultural affinities to China, is used to buttress the argument.
  Population Research and Policy Review 08/2012; 31(4):545-570.
• Article: Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts: State of the Practice and Implementation Strategy

  Jeff Tayman
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  ABSTRACT: Forecasts are needed for everyday decisions and must be in the form of numbers. Yet forecasts invariably turn out to be different than the numbers that actually occur. Yet, most producers of forecasts only present a deterministic view of the future in the form of point predictions. However, the presence of uncertainty is inherent in management or policy decisions and there is often concern that benefits are overstated and risks are understated. Such concerns are difficult to address by providing only point forecasts with no assessment of their uncertainty. Having a better understanding of uncertainty can enhance the usefulness of forecasts and make the work of forecasting agencies an even more valuable product for planners, policy makers, and the public. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it presents an overview of the current state-of-the-practice is assessing forecast uncertainty. Second, it offers a guidelines and options for implementing and building uncertainty into small area forecasting processes. There are options for assessing forecasting uncertainty that can and should be implemented by most, if not all, producers of forecasts. KeywordsForecast uncertainty–Decision-making–Implementation strategy
  Population Research and Policy Review 05/2012; 30(5):781-800.
• Article: Race, Place, and Veteran Status: Migration among Black and White Men, 1940–2000

  Amy Kate Bailey
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  ABSTRACT: In this paper, I gauge the impact of veteran status on migration probabilities for black and white men in the late 20th century United States, comparing cohorts that were subject to various military staffing policies. I find that white veterans are more likely than are white non-veterans to live outside the state of their birth and to have recently migrated. These effects persist regardless of whether veterans were subject to the draft or the All Volunteer Force staffing policy, and are durable across the life course. Among blacks, elevated rates of veterans’ migration are first observed in 1980. These results illuminate a previously unidentified consequence of veteran status, and may point to a policy-linked mechanism through which prior military employment influences social mobility, the American labor force is redistributed, and the racial composition of states and localities is altered. KeywordsMigration–Veterans–Race–Life course–Military policy
  Population Research and Policy Review 05/2012; 30(5):701-728.
• Article: Farm Dependence and Population Change in China

  Li Zhang
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  ABSTRACT: The existing literature has documented a negative association between farm dependence and population change in Western countries. Theories have also been proposed to explain such a negative association. Whether prior findings based on the western social context can be generalized to less developed countries, such as China, has largely eluded researchers. Using five waves of Chinese Census data and data from China’s Statistical Yearbooks, I investigate the dynamics between farm dependence and population change, particularly, in counties of Chinese provinces that are highly dependent on farms. I find that after controlling for mechanization, nonfarm industries and the human ecological factors that are rooted in the theoretical explanations of rural population change, high farm dependence does not necessarily lead to a lower population growth. The results imply that the existing theories on farm dependence and population change may need to be modified when being applied to less developed regions. The regional variation approach is proposed to understand population change in high-farm-dependent areas of China. KeywordsFarm dependence–Population–Population change–Human ecology
  Population Research and Policy Review 05/2012; 30(5):751-779.
• Article: Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options

  Quanbao Jiang, Shuzhuo Li, Marcus W. Feldman
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  ABSTRACT: The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country’s population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China’s population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China’s population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination. KeywordsGender discrimination–Public policy–Simulation–Aging–Marriage market
  Population Research and Policy Review 05/2012; 30(4):619-638.
• Article: Does Projecting Enrollments by Race Produce More Accurate Results in New Jersey School Districts?

  Richard S. Grip
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  ABSTRACT: Since different races have unique fertility rates and migration patterns, performing school district enrollment projections by race and aggregating to a total may be more accurate than performing enrollment projections with all races combined. Twelve school districts in New Jersey of varying overall size and majority race percentages were used in this study to determine whether projecting enrollment by race or with all races combined is more accurate. Using historical enrollment data for a five-year period, the Cohort-Survival Ratio method was employed to project enrollment for a four-year period, 2003–04 through 2006–07. Projected enrollments were compared to actual enrollments in each district for both methods used for the purpose of determining whether district building capacity would be exceeded. Enrollments computed were district totals and enrollment by elementary, middle, and high school configurations. Percent differences were calculated for each district for the projection time period. The results showed that the projections with all races combined had lower percent differences as compared to the projections that were performed by race, particularly for smaller districts. However, the findings also showed that projecting enrollment by race might be suitable for larger districts with low majority race percentages. The results also demonstrated that projections by race are greater in magnitude than those projections performed with all races combined, which corroborates an earlier assertion by Keyfitz.
  Population Research and Policy Review 05/2012; 28(6):747-771.
• Article: Socioeconomic Differences According to Family Arrangements in Chile

  Viviana Salinas
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  ABSTRACT: Family changes have accelerated in Chile in the last decades. Impressively, the proportion of children born outside of marriage has reached over 60%, at the same time that marriage has declined and cohabitation has increased. These changes are regularly considered indicators of a second demographic transition. This study describes the socioeconomic differences that currently exist in Chile between first-time mothers living in different family arrangements, and it asks to what extent these differences are the result of long term disadvantages passed on from the families the respondents grew up in. The data comes from a postpartum survey implemented in Santiago (N=686 women). The results show large differences in the socioeconomic wellbeing of women in different family arrangements. Women in nuclear marriages stand far apart from any other group in terms of educational attainment, income and participation in the labor force. Cohabiters and married women in extended households enjoy a level of socioeconomic wellbeing that is similar, but not as high as that of married women in nuclear households. Cohabiters in extended households, visiting, and single mothers look alike, and are the most vulnerable women in the sample. The link between the current scenario and the family where the respondents grew up is strong. Under these circumstances, it is hard to interpret the recent demographic changes in Chilean families as a prototypical case of the SDT. The trend the country is following resembles closer the dichotomous trajectory the U.S. has followed. KeywordsFamily arrangements–Socioeconomic wellbeing–Reproduction of inequalities–Marriage–Cohabitation–Second demographic transition
  Population Research and Policy Review 04/2012; 30(5):677-699.
• Article: Causes of Neonatal Deaths among Tribal Women in Gujarat, India

  Baiju Dinesh Shah, Laxmi Kant Dwivedi
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  ABSTRACT: Mortality among neonates has long been largely neglected by research in all developing nations of world including India. This study aims to identify the primary and secondary causes of neonatal deaths among the tribes of Gujarat by retrospectively analyzing 106 neonatal deaths that occurred during the year 2008 and 2009. The socio-economic, biological and traditional newborn care practices impacting newborn survival were also studied. Case studies including in-depth interviews of 33 women who had experienced neonatal deaths in period of 2008 and 2009 have also been conducted. The results show that the main causes of neonatal deaths in the study area were birth asphyxia, prematurity, aspiration, infection and congenital anomalies, irrespective of place of delivery. Absence of trained and skilled personnel for newborn resuscitation was the main cause of perinatal birth asphyxia related deaths. Around 36% mothers had a history of infant deaths. Low birth weight is one of the important causes of neonatal deaths among mothers who had a history of child loss. Cyclicality of neonatal deaths continued among clustered families with social factors initiating the cycle. Qualified trained birth attendants practicing essential newborn care are necessary during home deliveries. KeywordsNeonatal deaths–Primary causes–Clustering–Traditional newborn care
  Population Research and Policy Review 04/2012; 30(4):517-536.
• Article: Does Religion Influence Fertility in Developing Countries

  Tim B. Heaton
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  ABSTRACT: This paper examines religious group differences in fertility in developing nations. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys of 30 countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, this paper documents Muslim/Christian and Catholic/Protestant differences in the number of children under age 5. The paper also considers possible explanations for these differences including level of development, religious mix, social characteristics and proximate determinants of fertility. Muslim fertility is substantially higher than Christian fertility in many countries, but the average difference between Catholics and Protestants is small. Cross-national variation in group differences is at least as large as the average difference. Although level of development, social characteristics and proximate determinants play an important role in religious differences, they do not explain cross-national variation in these differences. KeywordsFertility–Religion–Developing countries
  Population Research and Policy Review 04/2012; 30(3):449-465.
• Article: Selective Out-Migration from Florida

  Andy Sharma
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  ABSTRACT: I test if selective out-migration of unhealthy seniors explains why disability rates are so much lower for Florida, as compared to the national average. This particular area of research is timely given the significant demographic changes relating to aging. Moreover, this study contributes to the body of literature examining migration with respect to disability and widowhood. Using State Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) and Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMA), I create national maps showing disability rates for the following age-groups: 50–59, 60–69, and 70+. After creating maps in ARCGIS and conducting univariate and clustering analysis on mobility disability and personal care limitation, I employ multinomial logit (MNL) analysis to test if individuals with disability are more likely to out-migrate from Florida. The regression analyses lend support to the relaxed Litwak and Longino (The Gerontologist, 27(3): 266–272, 1987) second-move hypothesis, which claims individuals with progressively worse health are more likely to undertake another move to be closer to family and friends. I state “relaxed” because the data does not allow one to determine the reason for migration—only that migration occurred during the past year. This research informs policy-makers to recognize that elderly in better health may migrate to places such as Arizona and Florida due to amenity-seeking behavior, but unhealthy elderly are more likely to leave these states due to assistance-seeking behavior. This out-migration can place excess demand on health services for the incoming regions, which requires state and local government to ensure resources are in place. Also noteworthy, my results are less likely to be flawed by erroneous age and sex data in the public use microdata samples (IPUMS) since I stack the 2006 and 2007 American Community Survey (ACS). A recent working studies by Alexander et al. (Inaccurate age and sex data in the Census PUMS files: Evidence and implications. Munich: CESifo, 2010) shows inaccuracies in the IPUMS for the 1 and 5% 2000 Census, the 2003–2006 ACS, the 2005–2007 3-year ACS, and the 2004–2009 current population survey (CPS) files. KeywordsElderly migration–Elderly disability–Migration and widowhood
  Population Research and Policy Review 04/2012; 30(6):817-838.
• Article: Preface from the New Editor-in-Chief

  Thomas W. Pullum
  Population Research and Policy Review 04/2012; 28(2):107-108.
• Article: Reduced Variation in Death Rates after Introduction of Antimicrobial Agents

  David W. Smith, Benjamin S. Bradshaw
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  ABSTRACT: There was a sharp, persistent drop in annual variation in life expectancy at birth in the United States between 1940 and 1950. To evaluate the possible relationship of this drop to the introduction of antimicrobial agents, we examined standardized death rates (SDR) and life expectancy (LE) in the United States and in England and Wales, both of which participated in the discovery and development of antimicrobials, especially penicillin, during this period. Annual variation in life expectancy and directly standardized death rates are measured as residuals from moving means. There were sharp drops in residual variation for males and females starting as early as 1944 in the United States and 1951 in England and Wales that persist to the present. The standard deviations of residuals dropped by 59–81% from before 1940 to after 1950 depending on sex, country, and SDR or LE. The timing and persistence of reduced annual variation indicates that antimicrobials contributed substantially to the change.
  Population Research and Policy Review 04/2012; 27(3):343-351.
• Article: Remarriage, Delayed Marriage, and Black/White Intermarriage, 1968–1995

  Vincent Kang Fu
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  ABSTRACT: How have changes in marriage order and marriage timing affected 1968–1995 trends in United States Black/White intermarriage? Researchers usually follow a one-sex perspective on the effects of timing and marriage order on marital selection, arguing that delayed marriages and remarriages will be more heterogamous than early or first marriages. This paper shows that a one-sex perspective is oversimplified and that assortative marriage with respect to race depends on the interaction of both husband’s and wife’s characteristics. Marriages that match with respect to age or marriage order tend to also match with respect to race. First marriages and remarriages for both partners are more likely to be same-race marriages. Marriages that are intermarriages with respect to marriage order are more likely to also be intermarriages with respect to race. Marriages that are usual age combinations (husband and wife similar in age or husband slightly older) are also usual race combinations (husband and wife same race). Marriages that are unusual age combinations are more likely to be racial intermarriages. This paper also shows that trends in remarriage patterns do not account for the increasing trend in racial intermarriage and that trends in marriage timing have actually slowed increases in racial intermarriage. KeywordsAge at marriage-Interracial marriage-Marriage timing-Racial intermarriage-Remarriage
  Population Research and Policy Review 04/2012; 29(5):687-713.