Technological Forecasting and Social Change (TECHNOL FORECAST SOC)

Publications in this journal

• Article: Analyzing and improving the national innovation system of highly developed countries - The case of Switzerland

  Marxt, Brunner
  Technological Forecasting and Social Change 06/2014;
• Article: Decarbonizing road freight in the future — Detailed scenarios of the carbon emissions of Finnish road freight transport in 2030 using a Delphi method approach

  Heikki Liimatainen, Erika Kallionpää, Markus Pöllänen, Pekka Stenholm, Petri Tapio, Alan McKinnon
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  ABSTRACT: Research on the future of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of road freight transport in Finland is reported in this paper. Delphi method is utilized to forecast the changes of GDP and seven indicators which determine the CO2 emissions of road freight. Information about the factors affecting the future of these indicators was also collected and an innovative method for acquiring qualitative data in the first round of Delphi study and quantifying it in the second round is presented. Cluster analysis is used to create six scenarios for 2030. The scenarios are mostly driven by different economic developments, which result in very different demand for transport. Despite of this, all scenarios forecast at least 26% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2010 level, while the maximum reduction in one of the scenarios is 74%.
  Technological Forecasting and Social Change 03/2013;
• Article: The conjoint community resiliency assessment measure as a baseline for profiling and predicting community resilience for emergencies

  Odeya Cohen, Mooli Lahad, Avishay Goldberg, Limor Aharonson-Daniel, Dmitry Leykin
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  ABSTRACT: Community resilience is a term that describes the community's ability to function amidst crises or disruptions. Community resilience is perceived as a fundamental element in emergency preparedness and as a mean of ensuring social stability in the face of crises, including disasters. However, there is a paucity of empiric evidence for this conjecture. This paper demonstrates the use of the Conjoint Community Resilience Assessment Measurement (CCRAM) for estimating the ability of a community to be resilient in the face of disaster. Six factors of community resilience were identified based on a study conducted in nine small to medium size towns (N = 886): Leadership, collective efficacy, preparedness, place attachment, social trust and social relationship. Multiple logistic regressions yielded the CCRAM protective factors for perceived community resilience. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis confirmed the quality of the CCRAM as a diagnostic tool for perceived community resilience. The CCRAM tool is presented as a potential provider of information for authorities and decision makers as an aid for foreseeing and planning towards the challenges present during emergency times.
  Technological Forecasting and Social Change 01/2013;
• Article: Caring for Healthcare Entrepreneurs - Towards successful entrepreneurial strategies for sustainable innovations in Dutch healthcare

  Maarten Janssen, Ellen H.M. Moors
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  ABSTRACT: The sustainability of current healthcare systems is threatened by several societal developments, including an aging population, an increase of unmet medical needs and rising healthcare costs. A transition is needed in rder to meet these threats and to achieve a proper balance between the demand for care and the capacity to supply it. Entrepreneurs play a crucial role in developing the required sustainable innovations for this structural change. They are able to develop innovations in close interaction within the healthcare context. This paper studies entrepreneurial strategies for the successful development of sustainable innovations in Dutch healthcare. Data comes from semistructured interviews with healthcare entrepreneurs. Results show that entrepreneurs experience the interaction with the healthcare systemcontext in various ways and act accordingly. Four types of sustainable healthcare entrepreneurs could be identified: isolated, innovative, evolutionary and revolutionary. These entrepreneurial types differ in terms of their beliefs as to whether and how individual entrepreneurs can contribute to achieving structural change in healthcare.
  Technological Forecasting and Social Change 01/2013;
• Article: Scenarios as channels of forecast advice

  D. Onkal, K.Z. Sayim, M. S. Gonul
  Technological Forecasting and Social Change 01/2013; 80:772-788.
• Article: Integrating Innovation System and Management Concepts: The Development of Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicles in Japan

  Pohl Hans, Masaru Yarime
  Technological Forecasting and Social Change 01/2012; 79(8):1431-1446.